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Thread: The Covid-19 Info thread (keep politics out please)

  1. #681
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    Quote Originally Posted by Todd4State View Post
    The thing that people need to remember about critical care and ventilators is:

    1. Not ALL patients with Coronavirus are going to have to be on a vent.

    2. Many of those that do have to go onto a vent will also eventually come off of the vent.
    That's true, but you have to assume each death tally ended on the ventilator (aside from a minority that are do not resuscitate), and in Italy's case that number is very significant.

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    Senior Member Todd4State's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by chef dixon View Post
    That's true, but you have to assume each death tally ended on the ventilator (aside from a minority that are do not resuscitate), and in Italy's case that number is very significant.
    Actually, you can't assume that. I've heard of people dying in their home.

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    I think a great sample population is the Diamond Princess cruise ship. We actually have both a numerator and a denominator in a confined population. There were about 3700 people on board that ship in a confined area for multiple weeks. All were tested (to my knowledge). Of those 3700, 712 contracted the virus and of those 712: 9 have died, 527 have recovered, and 14 are in critical condition. This complete sample population currently indicates a death rate if 1.2%. That could, of course, be adjusted depending on what happens with the remaining 177 cases. This also does not address underlying health conditions or approximate age.

  4. #684
    Senior Member msstate7's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dawgology View Post
    I think a great sample population is the Diamond Princess cruise ship. We actually have both a numerator and a denominator in a confined population. There were about 3700 people on board that ship in a confined area for multiple weeks. All were tested (to my knowledge). Of those 3700, 712 contracted the virus and of those 712: 9 have died, 527 have recovered, and 14 are in critical condition. This complete sample population currently indicates a death rate if 1.2%. That could, of course, be adjusted depending on what happens with the remaining 177 cases. This also does not address underlying health conditions or approximate age.
    Great post.

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    Quote Originally Posted by StateDawg44 View Post
    Is that a fact?
    Is this another naysayer wanting to bet all his vcash on it?

    My only hold up is that we don't have the test capabilities to get that much tested by then. But I no doubt believe there is 50k+ active cases currently.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Cooterpoot View Post
    Just an FYI, just heard from FEMA and MEMA, the two week shutdown and fuel shortage is nothing but a hoax. So don't act a fool.
    Same person that said South Korea had its first case 4+ months ahead of us. Take anything he says as utter trolling at this point, everyone. Ignore him and disregard. Do research outside of trusting in him.

  7. #687
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    Cruise ship population does not equate to general population. The most accurate estimates we have right now are not good. Most people still have no clue what they're about to witness across America.

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    Senior Member Cooterpoot's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by dantheman4248 View Post
    Same person that said South Korea had its first case 4+ months ahead of us. Take anything he says as utter trolling at this point, everyone. Ignore him and disregard. Do research outside of trusting in him.
    Bless your heart. By the way, MS has 2100 ventilators on the way. Masks on the way too but those are harder to get because NY, LA etc. get priority. Basically it's a numbers game via population.
    Health Dept can handle 200 tests per day currently. The new fast track testing is about to take off.
    Last edited by Cooterpoot; 03-20-2020 at 08:17 PM.

  9. #689
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    Quote Originally Posted by dantheman4248 View Post
    Is this another naysayer wanting to bet all his vcash on it?

    My only hold up is that we don't have the test capabilities to get that much tested by then. But I no doubt believe there is 50k+ active cases currently.
    For sure. Just found out a nephew and cousin could have symptoms and my sister has to quarantine. And my next door neighbor nurse(yep, pharmacist on one side and nurse on the other) told me a doctor at the hospital here in little rural south Alabama is pretty sure he’s seen cases with it but couldn’t test and sent em home.

  10. #690
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    Mass testing is not as important now as it would have been weeks to months ago. Its widespread and in an alarming number of asymptomatic people now. People with symptoms that aren't sick enough to go to the hospital probably need to just self quarantine at this point. There are no validated treatments so a visit to a doctor and getting a confirmatory test are not necessary and just put yourself and others at risk.

  11. #691
    Senior Member Cooterpoot's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by chef dixon View Post
    Mass testing is not as important now as it would have been weeks to months ago. Its widespread and in an alarming number of asymptomatic people now. People with symptoms that aren't sick enough to go to the hospital probably need to just self quarantine at this point. There are no validated treatments so a visit to a doctor and getting a confirmatory test are not necessary and just put yourself and others at risk.
    Nobody has to leave their cars on the fast track.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Cooterpoot View Post
    Nobody has to leave their cars on the fast track.
    There is one waiting on FDA approval that is based on at-home diabetic testing and will produce results in 1 minute instead of having to wait on a lab.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Mjoelner34 View Post
    There is one waiting on FDA approval that is based on at-home diabetic testing and will produce results in 1 minute instead of having to wait on a lab.
    And it's not happening anytime soon

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    Quote Originally Posted by defiantdog View Post
    I understand the comparisons with Italy, but Germany and France seem to be keeping better containment. Maybe, just maybe, the numbers stop growing after we contain the majority of the population.
    The problem is we haven't contained a large majority of the population. There are way too many people not taking the restrictions serious. We are relying on citizens good judgement in a time when a large percentage of our people don't possess that asset.

    Another thing you guys arguing numbers need to understand. Because we have a larger population than Italy doesn't mean we have a smaller percentage infected. It means it will take longer to spread and infect since we are much larger in side and population.

    And if you are discounting the affect on football season in the fall, you are much less concerned than the people who know the most about this disease.

    And the oil situation is not a hoax. There is no current shortage and won't be a shortage. But there could be a delay in supply at some point due to logistics and those available to work. Just a possibility that I would prepare for if easy.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Cooterpoot View Post
    And it's not happening anytime soon
    The FDA has eased regulations and started fast-tracking test development. This company is waiting on a final batch of tests from South Korea to present their case to the FDA. Should happen in the next week or 2.

  16. #696
    Senior Member StateDawg44's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by dantheman4248 View Post
    Is this another naysayer wanting to bet all his vcash on it?

    My only hold up is that we don't have the test capabilities to get that much tested by then. But I no doubt believe there is 50k+ active cases currently.
    First of all, what are you even suggesting a bet on? All that type of comment really proves is you are here to be able to try and tell someone ?I told you so? and to troll. Go **** yourself.

    Second of all, I?ve done nothing but question certain stats and graphics that have been posted (like the one I was commenting about that you quoted). I consider that doing my due diligence and not lapping up every single thing I read. Especially considering the amount of misinformation that is out there and some of which has undoubtedly been posted in this thread as things develop. You won?t find anywhere that I?ve said all of this is a big nothing burger and not something to be concerned with. All I?ve done is asked people to verify stats or comments or called out pure speculation.

    There is no one that knows anything factual about what?s to come and it?s still entirely too early for the US to call any sort of shot. Pretending like you can is purely speculative.

  17. #697
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    Quote Originally Posted by StateDawg44 View Post
    First of all, what are you even suggesting a bet on? All that type of comment really proves is you are here to be able to try and tell someone ?I told you so? and to troll. Go **** yourself.

    Second of all, I?ve done nothing but question certain stats and graphics that have been posted (like the one I was commenting about that you quoted). I consider that doing my due diligence and not lapping up every single thing I read. Especially considering the amount of misinformation that is out there and some of which has undoubtedly been posted in this thread as things develop. You won?t find anywhere that I?ve said all of this is a big nothing burger and not something to be concerned with. All I?ve done is asked people to verify stats or comments or called out pure speculation.

    There is no one that knows anything factual about what?s to come and it?s still entirely too early for the US to call any sort of shot. Pretending like you can is purely speculative.

    ... it's not pure speculation. It's called math and viewing exponential trends. We went from 1k to 10k in less than 10 days. It's pretty spot on to think 100k is attainable in the next 10 days. This thing is spreading at an alarmingly exponential rate and our testing is only broadening to more cases. It's not even speculation it's "doing your due dilligence" and understanding trends.

  18. #698
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    It is NOT pure speculation.

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    Quote Originally Posted by The Federalist Engineer View Post
    Which country are you speaking of? I would agree that Taiwan (0.92%) and S. Korea (1.08%) have death rates that seem to be under control. But these three nations share a conviction that the People's Republic of China is not a friend and probably Taiwan (the Good Chinese people that FDR and Truman sold out) is especially careful of China. They are still on a war posture with China and/or the China satellite North Korea.

    Other major free nations (Death rate %)....Germany (0.28%), UK (5.09%), Italy (8.29%), Spain (4.60%), Netherlands (3.08%), Canada (1.37%), Japan (3.49%), and France (3.37%). The US is 1.43%.

    The other major issue is that each year there are 41M Americans traveling abroad. That's more people than Canada's entire population. Also the USA gets 3M visitors from China per year. Only Canadian and Mexican nationals visit the US more than Chinese nationals. US universities have 360K chinese students, Germany only has 36K. The US has more undocumented migrants than S Korea has people. The US also has the biggest companies in the world, you have legions of American expats working and traveling to china at any given moment.

    I am not trying to be homer for any government official, the US actually is supposed to be a limited government society. So ordering and appropriating the supply chain of a particular industry is not the design of the US government, who owns the inventory and how do you account for the material? The mayor of New York, California Governor, US senators, and US presidents are not suppose issue directives to clinics, particular hospitals, or pharmacies. Even Martial Law and Curfew is going to get ACLU challenges before this is said and done. Then you have tort lawyers, that nobody else has on Earth. If a US test is 99.97% accurate and 8 people are false negative and they infect and kill a few people....that could destroy a company.
    Quote Originally Posted by Cooterpoot View Post
    Those countries are 4+ months ahead of us. A Dr I work with at a hospital in MS said yesterday this is the single greatest response from government agencies he's ever seen as in his 40 years of providing medical care. Said the response from all levels has been fast and efficient.
    We could've thrown together tests for this and it could've killed people. The government has done everything they can to assist the medical community.
    Highly likely that people saying negative things about our country's response to the Chinese virus get their news from certain specific news outlets that are 24/7 critical of this President and his administration. I think he's done a fine job and to be honest I'm surprised we've been able to get anything done since literally everything the man wants to do is uniformly challenged by every democrat at all levels of government. I've never seen one side so out to get someone else in my life.

  20. #700
    Senior Member starkvegasdawg's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mjoelner34 View Post
    There is one waiting on FDA approval that is based on at-home diabetic testing and will produce results in 1 minute instead of having to wait on a lab.
    They need to approve that stat. I just saw how far back they go to test with the nasal swab. Any further and you risk brain damage. I'm certain Daryl has killed walkers without stabbing them that deeply.

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