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Thread: The Covid-19 Info thread (keep politics out please)

  1. #661
    Senior Member hacker's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by The Federalist Engineer View Post
    Italy is a very different culture than us and in the case of spreading virus, very unfortunate relative the USA

    (1) Italian bars are tiny. They can touch 10 people where ever you stand...and they love those bars, its cultural.
    (2) Italians eat family style at restaurants, frequently in close quarters
    (3) They don't clean things the same way we do. A cold beer in Italy is not a cold beer to us, they only thing they make really Hot is coffee
    (4) Work lunch is not dudes getting a burger at a drive through. They walk together and eat at cafeteria style small restaurants. Chatting and social.
    (5) everything is old, we use lots more plastic cups, forks, and spoons. They use long term utensils
    (6) just so happens that we have italian cold-chain companies on IOT devices, we know they don't use cold or hot like we do.
    (7) big users of trains and public buses over there, personal cars are not the rule. parking and rent is expensive.

    I could go on. Mississippi especially is not like Italy at all. The Bronx is sort-of like Italy, but not West Point, MS.

  2. #662
    Senior Member StateDawg44's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by hacker View Post

    Does the fact that we have over 5 times the population not factor into this graph for you?

  3. #663
    Senior Member msstate7's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by StateDawg44 View Post
    Does the fact that we have over 5 times the population not factor into this graph for you?
    32x the size of Italy also

  4. #664
    Senior Member hacker's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by StateDawg44 View Post
    Does the fact that we have over 5 times the population not factor into this graph for you?
    Do you understand exponential growth? We'll have 100k cases around March 30.

  5. #665
    Senior Member StateDawg44's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by hacker View Post
    Do you understand exponential growth? We'll have 100k cases around March 30.
    Is that a fact?

  6. #666
    Senior Member Todd4State's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by msstate7 View Post
    32x the size of Italy also
    US has around 387-390 million people and Italy has around 70 million.

    What people need to look at is the mortality rate.

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    I work for a large paper company, I mean HUUUGe one. We have been told that we are essential to society and must keep the paper / packaging and yes toilet tissue flowing or people wont' be getting anything anywhere.

    If you ship it, you most likely need something to put it in and for goodness sake, people need toilet paper.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Hot Rock View Post
    I work for a large paper company, I mean HUUUGe one. We have been told that we are essential to society and must keep the paper / packaging and yes toilet tissue flowing or people wont' be getting anything anywhere.

    If you ship it, you most likely need something to put it in and for goodness sake, people need toilet paper.
    Toilet paper people are great Americans - I certainly appreciate them

  9. #669
    General Public Political Hack's Avatar
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    This thread is going to be go down the anals of history.

    Yeah, it was intentional.

  10. #670
    Senior Member Commercecomet24's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Political Hack View Post
    This thread is going to be go down the anals of history.

    Yeah, it was intentional.
    Rep Given!

  11. #671
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    Quote Originally Posted by StateDawg44 View Post
    Does the fact that we have over 5 times the population not factor into this graph for you?
    Its still concerning no matter how you slice it. The point is, no matter how bad the virus itself actually gets it has already rocked our country, and it is just in the early stages.

    If you play with the number of ICU beds and death toll in Italy, they are seeing close to 2 deaths per day right now just from COVID per 20 bed ICU. That's a scary thing to see play out. Even if we are half as affected as Italy its a mess from a medical stand point.
    Last edited by chef dixon; 03-20-2020 at 04:08 PM.

  12. #672
    Senior Member Gutter Cobreh's Avatar
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    Not sure if someone has posted it yet, but below is a link to an interactive map showing cases worldwide.

    If it has already been posted, my apologies for the duplicity.

    https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

  13. #673
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    For those claiming that we didn't panic about h1n1, well there's a good damn reason.

    https ://www.google.com/amp/s/www.livescience.com/amp/covid-19-pandemic-vs-swine-flu.html

    "In the U.S., between April 2009 and April 2010, the CDC estimates there were 60.8 million cases of swine flu, with over 274,000 hospitalizations and nearly 12,500 deaths — that's a mortality rate of about 0.02%."

    Roughly 1/4864 Americans that contracted h1n1 required hospitalization and that was spread over ~1 year. Data says 1/5 people that contract covid-19 will require hospitalization. That's why we are responding differently. The math just isn't the same. I don't pretend to be a doctor that understand the science behind why one is worse than the other, but I do know how numbers work. Fauci could stand there and dryly lecture to us about the science behind it, but I don't need that to believe the math and probably wouldn't understand it anyway. And covid-19 is significantly more contagious on top of that, so the number of infected grows exponentially.

    "The H1N1 flu was also less contagious than the novel coronavirus. The basic reproduction number, also called the R-nought value, is the expected number of individuals who can catch the virus from a single infected person. For the 2009 H1N1 virus, the mean R-nought value was 1.46, according to a review published in the journal BMC Infectious Diseases. For the novel coronavirus, the R-nought value is estimated to be between 2 and 2.5, at the moment."

    in California alone show that without drastic measures, over 50% of the population of the state would have it within 2 months (25-26M people), so if 20% need hospitalization, that's over 5M people in 2 months in need of hospital care. No state could handle those numbers, so a lot more people would die from inadequate care.

    For those that think this is all much ado about nothing, do y'all just not believe those numbers at all?

  14. #674
    Senior Member WeWonItAll(Most)'s Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by chef dixon View Post
    Its still concerning no matter how you slice it. The point is, no matter how bad the virus itself actually gets it has already rocked our country, and it is just in the early stages.

    If you play with the number of ICU beds and death toll in Italy, they are seeing close to 2 deaths per day right now just from COVID per 20 bed ICU. That's a scary thing to see play out. Even if we are half as affected as Italy its a mess from a medical stand point.
    Posted this on SPS, but we have 3x the critical care capacity than Italy does per capita. I assume that means things have to get a lot worse for us before we find ourselves in the position Italy is in.

    Far Moorhead yaw

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    Quote Originally Posted by WeWonItAll(Most) View Post
    Posted this on SPS, but we have 3x the critical care capacity than Italy does per capita. I assume that means things have to get a lot worse for us before we find ourselves in the position Italy is in.

    Will certainly help. Its discouraging to see Italy continue to get worse but nothing here is apples to apples. There's just not enough known about it yet to predict this accurately in different environments.

  16. #676
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    Quote Originally Posted by hacker View Post
    I'm not sure you can take much from that b/c of our lack of testing. We probably are worse than we thought (or at least certainly worse than the testing shows) but at the same time, we'll probably show increase rate of growth even after we are bending the curve because of more availability of testing.

    Italy may have similar issues, but I don't think you can assume it.

  17. #677
    Senior Member defiantdog's Avatar
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    I understand the comparisons with Italy, but Germany and France seem to be keeping better containment. Maybe, just maybe, the numbers stop growing after we contain the majority of the population.

  18. #678
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hot Rock View Post
    I work for a large paper company, I mean HUUUGe one. We have been told that we are essential to society and must keep the paper / packaging and yes toilet tissue flowing or people wont' be getting anything anywhere.

    If you ship it, you most likely need something to put it in and for goodness sake, people need toilet paper.
    I work for a vendor that supports the paper industry. We are ramping up efforts to be able to better support our customers remotely so that you can keep cranking out pulp, packaging and towel at 100% capacity.

    I remember the first time I saw a paper machine... pretty incredible manufacturing process.
    Last edited by DawgInMemphis; 03-20-2020 at 05:00 PM.

  19. #679
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    Quote Originally Posted by DawgInMemphis View Post
    I work for a vendor that supports the paper industry. We are ramping up efforts to be able to better support our customers remotely so that you can keep cranking out pulp, packaging and towel at 100% capacity.

    I remember the first time I saw a paper machine... pretty incredible manufacturing process.
    I've seen it on "How It's Made" and yes, it really is a pretty incredible process. For that matter, the level of robotics in manufacturing just about anything is amazing.

  20. #680
    Senior Member Todd4State's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by WeWonItAll(Most) View Post
    Posted this on SPS, but we have 3x the critical care capacity than Italy does per capita. I assume that means things have to get a lot worse for us before we find ourselves in the position Italy is in.

    The thing that people need to remember about critical care and ventilators is:

    1. Not ALL patients with Coronavirus are going to have to be on a vent.

    2. Many of those that do have to go onto a vent will also eventually come off of the vent.

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