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Originally Posted by
hacker
A couple things here:
- The % positive is growing week over week. That means infections are growing faster than our tests are increasing. You can also see how the case slope is steeper than the test slope. We're finding more cases than we did in March or April for sure, but when you compare it to a week or two ago, infection spread is the main driver in the increase in cases. It's not just because we're testing more.
- The uptick in hospitalizations just started about a week ago. On average, it takes 2 weeks from hospitalization to death. Then there's usually about a week lag before it's included in numbers. I think we're about 7-14 days from seeing an uptick in deaths.
I think the next few days is the real test (no pun intended). We have seen an enormous jump in positive cases the last three weeks. Like incredible. So far deaths have continued to plummet. Today was the lowest Tuesday death count we've had. If the 7 day rolling death count doesn't increase dramatically the next week given the incredible uptick in positive cases, I think we are home free with respect to deaths.
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