The Covid-19 Info thread (keep politics out please)

[hacker]

I wonder if the cdc x 10 factor applies across all age groups. If so, the cdc x 10 factor reduces that to .66%.

I wouldn't think you could apply that uniformly across all age groups. There are less asymptomatic cases as you go higher in age. Therefore, as you go higher in age, infections are more likely to get tested and reported.

[confucius say]

I wouldn't think you could apply that uniformly across all age groups. There are less asymptomatic cases as you go higher in age. Therefore, as you go higher in age, infections are more likely to get tested and reported.

Prob so. Prob more like x 20 factor for under 25 and x 5 factor for over 55.

[hacker]

NY's 7-day case avg peak was April 10th, and their 7-day death avg peak was April 12th. If you're a death is a lagging stat guy, then NY missed a boat load of cases 2-4 weeks before April 12th. If you think NY was competent testing, death stats are very encouraging for Florida. Florida not issuing death sentences on their LTC centers is probably helping their death comparison to NY though.

I don't think it's just the stats that show deaths are a lagging indicator. From case reports, we know that people usually spend weeks in the hospital before they die.

But stats do show this as well. If you look at the states with the worst outbreaks that started increasing mid-June, it's pretty clear:

[msstate7]

If you have type A blood, you might wanna invest in a high quality mask...

https://www.pix11.com/news/national/...ty-of-covid-19

[msstate7]

I don't think it's just the stats that show deaths are a lagging indicator. From case reports, we know that people usually spend weeks in the hospital before they die.

But stats do show this as well. If you look at the states with the worst outbreaks that started increasing mid-June, it's pretty clear:

If deaths lag 4-weeks, then we gotta figure the absolute peak of cases was around March 18th. The 7-day case avg on March 18th was 1,147, so we were way off on cases. This also makes me believe COVID19 has been here much longer than we thought.

[BrunswickDawg]

This also makes me believe COVID19 has been here much longer than we thought.

Well, if they finding it in sewage samples from November in Brazil - odds are it was here much earlier than thought.
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1....26.20140731v1

[Dawgfan77]

Ok so a buddy of mine in LA went to get a test. The completed paperwork which includes name phone number and email on Friday. Didn't get the test done said line was to long. Fast forward to Sunday afternoon. He and his wife both get emails saying they are C19 positive. No test done but they were counted as positive in LA.

Thoughts??

[msstate7]

https://twitter.com/pdubdev/status/1...307345920?s=21

[dawgday166]

Ok so a buddy of mine in LA went to get a test. The completed paperwork which includes name phone number and email on Friday. Didn't get the test done said line was to long. Fast forward to Sunday afternoon. He and his wife both get emails saying they are C19 positive. No test done but they were counted as positive in LA.

Thoughts??

Probably why cases are "exploding" in some places and deaths are still decreasing. Of course the virus could've mutated too ... which would be a good thing.

[dawgday166]

https://twitter.com/pdubdev/status/1...307345920?s=21

Nostradamus predicted an earthquake to hit CA in 2020 with most of CA going into Pacific. I wish it would hurry up and happen ****** He also predicted one to hit NYC sometime in 2050 or so too I believe ... dammit why so long out ******

[Dawgology]

Something really interesting happened last night.

Got Covid-19 tests results back in under an hour....

How the **** did that happen?

[Dawgology]

https://twitter.com/pdubdev/status/1...307345920?s=21

Teachers Union asking to defund police but will be screaming and crying for their help during the next school shooting.

Good luck with that.

[iPat09]

Something really interesting happened last night.

Got Covid-19 tests results back in under an hour....

How the **** did that happen?

Someone I know got tested last Tuesday and still hasn't gotten results back.

[StateDawg44]

Ok so a buddy of mine in LA went to get a test. The completed paperwork which includes name phone number and email on Friday. Didn't get the test done said line was to long. Fast forward to Sunday afternoon. He and his wife both get emails saying they are C19 positive. No test done but they were counted as positive in LA.

Thoughts??

And you heard this from your buddy's mouth?

I'm not doubting you or him or that this is taking place all over.

Just a question because I'm here in TN and have heard the same story from a co-worker about his friend here. Almost seems too blatant to get the numbers inflated.

[William Tecumsah Sherman]

CDC estimates up to 40% of actual COVID infections are asymptomatic. What do we make of this? Is this good or bad?

[revdrdawg]

It will depend on the degree to which asymptomatic cases can spread the virus. It is certainly better for those 40% who get it and get over it quickly (as long as there are no long term after effects). It makes it much harder to keep the virus away from the vulnerable.

[Dawgfan77]

And you heard this from your buddy's mouth?

I'm not doubting you or him or that this is taking place all over.

Just a question because I'm here in TN and have heard the same story from a co-worker about his friend here. Almost seems too blatant to get the numbers inflated.

Technically it was over the phone.... but yes from his mouth

[Lord McBuckethead]

CDC estimates up to 40% of actual COVID infections are asymptomatic. What do we make of this? Is this good or bad?

I believe, if contagious while asymptomatic, it would be bad news. It also would be interesting to know if these asymptomatic folks carried antibodies that kept them from getting it again. It is impossible to know because testing levels are not there.

Does anyone think it would be worth it to spend 10 billion a week on testing? If everyone in every state were tested every month, contact tracing could enter into the covid playbook. We could all go about our lives with much less restrictions. The economy, after a month or two could pretty much get back to 100%. 10 billion seems doable considering the fed has pumped 3 trillion into the economy as of last month.

[Lord McBuckethead]

And you heard this from your buddy's mouth?

I'm not doubting you or him or that this is taking place all over.

Just a question because I'm here in TN and have heard the same story from a co-worker about his friend here. Almost seems too blatant to get the numbers inflated.

Can we keep the conspriracy theories out of this discussion?

[Johnson85]

CDC estimates up to 40% of actual COVID infections are asymptomatic. What do we make of this? Is this good or bad?

The higher the percent of asymptomatic cases, the lower the infection fatality rate will turn out to be. To the extent asymptomatic people spread the disease, the harder it will be to contact trace. But we're so far away from being able to contact trace, I would say that's pretty much irrelevant for now, so it's more or less just good news. That would put the best estimate of the IFR at something like .2%, which is very manageable, it just still results in a lot of deaths when you have a population that has never been exposed.

If 50% of the population ends up getting it, and the IFR is .2%, then that would be 325k deaths in the US. If it were .1%, then that'd be 162.5k deaths. We're already at 137k deaths, so 162.5k would be pretty optimistic at this point.