Quote Originally Posted by confucius say View Post
To the extent your insults are at me, I didn't infer anything. I read your statement as written and quoted it back to you. You said you were dropping the rate from 10% to 5% due to people who requested testing and were refused a test. I pointed out you were ignoring the variable of people who did not even seek testing, and you tried to say, oh no I accounted for that in my dropping from 10% to 5% too. Well maybe so, but that's not what you typed.

I do agree there is insufficient data at this point, and that it is hard to predict a death rate. But you have to at least place a number on the people who have had the virus, not sought treatment, and lived.
1. No. The insults are at a wide variety on here. Not targeted. Not if I didn't quote you. 2. and below are directly at you.

2. That's not the statement I'm talking about. this whole side chain started with someone asking me to give my prediction when it's done.

You then decided to tell me that assuming isn't statistics and Todd is telling me that I'm preaching doom and gloom.

I was literally asked to make a prediction. I wasn't clear on how I was wording one sentence of my post and you've now tried to use solely that to take down every bit of a straw man argument you've created saying I'm doing. That's you. That's your argument tactic. I didn't spout this prediction off as highly sophisticated statistics. I used statistics in conjunction with intuition, assumptions and observation to create that prediction.

If you want to argue the specific assumptions that's fine. I think it's 50% of infected people aren't confirmed. You seem to think it's 75%. Anything to sway me differently? I'm guestimating there based on A. lack of testing in the US, B. general knowledge of how the average american may not afford being sick or will power through C. knowing that a majority of the other countries have tested majorly and narrowed down actual cases (America isn't the only one in play here. I'm guessing this is something you're not accounting for.) What leads you to 75%?