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Originally Posted by
msstate7
70-150 million with a death rate of 3% is 2.1-4.5 million deaths. I'm not buying that at all. If he's predicting 70-150 million, then I say the 3% death rate is grossly exaggerated.
I'm sorry that the best available facts don't line up with what you immagine reality to be... seriously 7, you're a stats guy. Saying 'I don't buy" it can get that bad or "ix this part is really that bad then the other part must be not nearly as bad" are basically you stating "I arbitrarily decided it will only be X bad, so whatever formula of # infected x death rate must = X". You're smarter than to use hunches from your own ass in the face of what literal Dr's and nations with or evidence say.
Death rates are probably closer to 1% than 3. And back to CHina- remember they quarantined Wuhan after only 500 confirmed cases, and took a lot more quarantine action elsewhere after I think 2,000 cases were confirmed. We've already had over 1,000 cases confirmed and aren't doing shit, so yeah it's reasonable to think the % of the population that gets it will be higher than China's was (or SK or that matter)
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