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Thread: The Covid-19 Info thread (keep politics out please)

  1. #1581
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    Apparently, Mississippi has the highest hospitalization rate in the country.

  2. #1582
    Senior Member Cooterpoot's Avatar
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    In MS, you've only been getting tested if you've got like 10 symptoms including a high fever. That's why we've been so high. We've started slowly backing that down, and that rate will drop when we do.

  3. #1583
    Senior Member Dawgology's Avatar
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    If you go to the hospital and visit the burn unit to do a study on how dangerous fire is you would probably come to the assumption that fire is one of the most dangerous things out there and we should not use anything that contains fire. Why? Because out of everyone that was severly burned by fire at leasy 50% are hospitalized and about 10% die. Therefore, fire has a 10% death rate. Now, we know (assume) that thousands of people burn themselves slightly every day (hot skillet, candles, being dumb, etc.) but the vast majority of them don't visit a doctor for it. It's not worth it.

    It's much the same way with the Corona Virus. Our denominator in this equation is pre-loaded. This is why the annual mortality rate for the flu is so low because CDC assumes (and rightly so) that 80%-90% of people that have the flu don't actually go to the doctor. If you look at the CDC's seasonal flu numbers from last year (again they are just assuming numbers) then you will see that flu hospitilization carries with it a 7% mortality rate. That's right. 7% mortality rate. Now...when you factor in their assumption that approximately 35.5 million people have the flu every year that mortality rate drops tremendously (to around .5%)

    There is a lot of research out there suggesting that the number of corona viruses cases are 10x's greater than reported...conservatively. This number is derived from reported R0 values and reported growth rates of the virus and assuming a Nov. 1 patient zero date. This is the same estimates that the CDC uses to derive annual influenza numbers. This estimation would leave the Corona Virus death rate at approximately .5%.

    That's not to say this virus isn't dangerous...it VERY much is. Primarily because there is no herd immunity or vaccine yet. It will spread quickly until herd immunity is achieved and then it will go away for a year or two until it mutates sufficiently to bypass the antibodies it produced initially. Hopefully there is a vaccine by then.

  4. #1584
    Senior Member msstate7's Avatar
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    Anyone feel like fact checking this?



    Saw it on Facebook, so you know...

  5. #1585
    Senior Member Todd4State's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by msstate7 View Post
    Anyone feel like fact checking this?



    Saw it on Facebook, so you know...
    China numbers sold separately.**

  6. #1586
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    Quote Originally Posted by Todd4State View Post
    China numbers sold separately.**
    Rep given!

  7. #1587
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    Louisiana 2700 new cases since yesterday

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    Quote Originally Posted by hacker View Post
    Probably max 1 million in the US. For every person sick enough to get a test, there may be 4 out there whose symptoms weren't bad enough to get tested.

    Iceland has been randomly testing everyone. They show 50% of positive cases are asymptomatic.

    https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/01/europ...ntl/index.html

    Edit: Assuming the 50% asymptomatic stat holds true, for there to be more than 1 million total cases, there would have to be more than twice as many undetected cases where the person is actually sick and not getting tested. I don't think that's true.
    Your first paragraph accounts for those sick enough to get a test and, 4 times that number, those who have symptoms but not bad enough to get tested. It doesn't at all account for those who have gotten the virus but have no symptoms, which we know is a large number.

    I think if everybody in America were tested, all 330 million, there would be way, way more than 1 million who test positive or who have had the virus already. Probably 1 million just in New York.

  9. #1589
    Senior Member Dawgology's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by hacker View Post
    Louisiana 2700 new cases since yesterday
    Currently Louisiana has approximately 7,000 positive infected (out of 46,000 tests). Based on R0 values and spread rates (based on almost a dozen different studies across the world) they actually should have about 70,000 currently infected individuals across the state that are asymptomatic or symptomatic.

  10. #1590
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    Quote Originally Posted by confucius say View Post
    Your first paragraph accounts for those sick enough to get a test and, 4 times that number, those who have symptoms but not bad enough to get tested. It doesn't at all account for those who have gotten the virus but have no symptoms, which we know is a large number.
    I think I covered asymptomatic people in the rest of the post. Either way, it's just my most educated guess

  11. #1591
    Senior Member Dawgology's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by confucius say View Post
    Your first paragraph accounts for those sick enough to get a test and, 4 times that number, those who have symptoms but not bad enough to get tested. It doesn't at all account for those who have gotten the virus but have no symptoms, which we know is a large number.

    I think if everybody in America were tested, all 330 million, there would be way, way more than 1 million who test positive or who have had the virus already. Probably 1 million just in New York.
    Again, based on reported R0 value and spread rates then all American's should have had it by now...19 times a piece...assuming the virus entered the US with one person on January 1, 2020. So this means that either: multiple studies on R0 values and growth rates are incorrect, we are doing DAMN good as a country at social distancing, or this virus produces severe symptoms in only a small fraction of the total population that it is introduced to. These are very literally the only logical conclusions.

  12. #1592
    Senior Member Lord McBuckethead's Avatar
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    GA governor just yesterday said he learned Tuesday that the virus can be spread prior to someone demonstrating symptoms.....like no 17n shit man. That has been established 17n fact by even the cdc since the first God damn week of February. What the hell man.
    Downvotes_Hype

  13. #1593
    Senior Member Lord McBuckethead's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dawgology View Post
    Again, based on reported R0 value and spread rates then all American's should have had it by now...19 times a piece...assuming the virus entered the US with one person on January 1, 2020. So this means that either: multiple studies on R0 values and growth rates are incorrect, we are doing DAMN good as a country at social distancing, or this virus produces severe symptoms in only a small fraction of the total population that it is introduced to. These are very literally the only logical conclusions.
    I agree. I think social distancing is slowing it down greatly versus doing nothing. Just imagine if we were still holding concerts, movies, and sporting events. We would be at 20 million cases if not more right now.
    Downvotes_Hype

  14. #1594
    Senior Member Commercecomet24's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dawgology View Post
    If you go to the hospital and visit the burn unit to do a study on how dangerous fire is you would probably come to the assumption that fire is one of the most dangerous things out there and we should not use anything that contains fire. Why? Because out of everyone that was severly burned by fire at leasy 50% are hospitalized and about 10% die. Therefore, fire has a 10% death rate. Now, we know (assume) that thousands of people burn themselves slightly every day (hot skillet, candles, being dumb, etc.) but the vast majority of them don't visit a doctor for it. It's not worth it.

    It's much the same way with the Corona Virus. Our denominator in this equation is pre-loaded. This is why the annual mortality rate for the flu is so low because CDC assumes (and rightly so) that 80%-90% of people that have the flu don't actually go to the doctor. If you look at the CDC's seasonal flu numbers from last year (again they are just assuming numbers) then you will see that flu hospitilization carries with it a 7% mortality rate. That's right. 7% mortality rate. Now...when you factor in their assumption that approximately 35.5 million people have the flu every year that mortality rate drops tremendously (to around .5%)

    There is a lot of research out there suggesting that the number of corona viruses cases are 10x's greater than reported...conservatively. This number is derived from reported R0 values and reported growth rates of the virus and assuming a Nov. 1 patient zero date. This is the same estimates that the CDC uses to derive annual influenza numbers. This estimation would leave the Corona Virus death rate at approximately .5%.

    That's not to say this virus isn't dangerous...it VERY much is. Primarily because there is no herd immunity or vaccine yet. It will spread quickly until herd immunity is achieved and then it will go away for a year or two until it mutates sufficiently to bypass the antibodies it produced initially. Hopefully there is a vaccine by then.
    This guy gets it. Well said and something I've heard echoed over the last 2 weeks by doctors and healthcare officials that I do business with.

  15. #1595
    Senior Member Dawgology's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lord McBuckethead View Post
    I agree. I think social distancing is slowing it down greatly versus doing nothing. Just imagine if we were still holding concerts, movies, and sporting events. We would be at 20 million cases if not more right now.
    Honestly we are probably close to that already it's just that the majority are mild or asymptomatic. If the R0 values and spread rate it correct and we were still having concerts, etc then it would probably closer to 50% of the population at this point.

  16. #1596
    Senior Member Dawgology's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Commercecomet24 View Post
    This guy gets it. Well said and something I've heard echoed over the last 2 weeks by doctors and healthcare officials that I do business with.
    It's important to note that you are starting to hear health care officials hedge their assumptions when saying big numbers here recently. Again, it's still a very dangerous virus. Think about this. If the seasonal flue kills roughly 60,000 in the US every year and then you drop this on top of the US you are doubling or tripling deaths related to viruses/flus in one year. That is a lot of AVOIDABLE deaths. We need to maintain the social distancing, quarnatine, and shelter in place methods until AT LEAST the end of April.

  17. #1597
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dawgology View Post
    It's important to note that you are starting to hear health care officials hedge their assumptions when saying big numbers here recently. Again, it's still a very dangerous virus. Think about this. If the seasonal flue kills roughly 60,000 in the US every year and then you drop this on top of the US you are doubling or tripling deaths related to viruses/flus in one year. That is a lot of AVOIDABLE deaths. We need to maintain the social distancing, quarnatine, and shelter in place methods until AT LEAST the end of April.
    Agree completely.

  18. #1598
    Senior Member fishwater99's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by msstate7 View Post
    Anyone feel like fact checking this?



    Saw it on Facebook, so you know...
    Update once this year is over, COVID-19 deaths are growing daily.

  19. #1599
    Senior Member msstate7's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by fishwater99 View Post
    Update once this year is over, COVID-19 deaths are growing daily.
    Well wouldn't the others rise also?

  20. #1600
    Senior Member Dawgology's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by msstate7 View Post
    Well wouldn't the others rise also?
    I would imagine that by the time this is over with both flu and corona will have taken close to the same numbers which align with what Fauci is saying. Approx. 100,000 individuals

    Without social distancing and quarantine that number would be much higher due to the fact that there is no vaccine or herd immunity. But overall cases would be much higher due to the fact that many more indivuduals would get this virus than normally get the flu. Imagine the seasonal flu without a vaccine. It doesn't make the seasonal flu MORE dangerous what it does is allow the flu to get to more people. More people = higher death toll (not higher death rate). The majority of those 100,000 individuals that die from the flu every year die from...guess what...pneumonia. Both the seasonal flu and corona virus are very dangerous diseases. The advantage that corona has over the flu is that it can get into more of the population due to lack of herd/vaccine immunity.

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