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Thread: The Covid-19 Info thread (keep politics out please)

  1. #1561
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    Quote Originally Posted by Joebob View Post
    It seems that way here in Dallas too, until I think about all the restaurants, nail shops, and barbers that are shut down.
    I'm an hour north of you.

  2. #1562
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    Quote Originally Posted by BeardoMSU View Post
    Wrong.
    I'm speaking from experience. Atleast that's the case here. So it's not wrong

  3. #1563
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dawgology View Post
    I hear it cures the Corona!**
    Then I just ate the cure. I'm good.

  4. #1564
    Senior Member starkvegasdawg's Avatar
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    I just read a list of essential businesses in MS. After I finished I honestly wondered what was non-essential.

    https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.wlo...outputType=amp

  5. #1565
    Senior Member hacker's Avatar
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    Spare me the stuff about the numbers being wrong blah blah


    Code:
    Country                Death Rate
    
    United States	        2.35%
    Italy                   11.92%
    Spain	                9.07%
    Germany	                1.18%
    France	     	        7.08%
    United Kingdom		7.98%
    US was 1.3% a week ago
    Italy was 6.9% 3 weeks ago
    Spain was 4% 3 weeks ago
    Germany was 0.5% a week ago
    France and UK were 3-4% a couple weeks ago
    Last edited by hacker; 04-02-2020 at 08:31 AM.

  6. #1566
    Senior Member msstate7's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by hacker View Post
    Spare me the stuff about the numbers being wrong blah blah


    Code:
    Country                Death Rate
    
    United States	        2.35%
    Italy                   11.92%
    Spain	                9.07%
    Germany	                1.18%
    France	     	        7.08%
    United Kingdom		7.98%
    US was 1.3% a week ago
    Italy was 6.9% 3 weeks ago
    Spain was 4% 3 weeks ago
    Germany was 0.5% a week ago
    France and UK were 3-4% a couple weeks ago
    Wait, so you think every case of covid19 is recorded?

  7. #1567
    Senior Member hacker's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by msstate7 View Post
    Wait, so you think every case of covid19 is recorded?
    Obviously not. But the death rate in all countries is increasing and it's totally fair to compare a country to where they were a week or two ago.

  8. #1568
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    Quote Originally Posted by hacker View Post
    Obviously not. But the death rate in all countries is increasing and it's totally fair to compare a country to where they were a week or two ago.
    https://yournews.com/2020/03/27/1532...-very-bad-flu/

  9. #1569
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    Quote Originally Posted by msstate7 View Post
    Wait, so you think every case of covid19 is recorded?
    You keep searching for perfection in this and you're not going to find it.

  10. #1570
    Senior Member hacker's Avatar
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    You have to look at the current death rate numbers as "chance of dying when you're sick enough to get tested"

    Sure the actual rate will be much lower considering asymptomatic cases. And yes, Dr. Fauci said it's probably less than 1% overall. But I think he had a poor choice of words in that paper. Even a 4% death rate is "closer to the flu" than it is to the 10% from SARS.

    But if you're actually showing symptoms from this disease, the death rate is closer to SARS in some places. (And they're all increasing)
    Last edited by hacker; 04-02-2020 at 09:10 AM.

  11. #1571
    Senior Member msstate7's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by chef dixon View Post
    You keep searching for perfection in this and you're not going to find it.
    My opinion is the documented cases are waaaaaay off, so the death rate is waaaay off. Hell, if you used only the documented cases of the flu, the death rate for the flu would be much, much higher. The CDC estimates how many have/had the flu to calculate death rate. The CDC estimates that between oct 1, 2019, and March 21, 2020, there have been 38-54 million cases of the flu. Now covid19 is supposedly twice as contagious, and there's no vaccine... now considering this, you telling me there have been only 961000 cases?

    ETA... I realize corona is more deadly than the flu.
    Last edited by msstate7; 04-02-2020 at 09:15 AM.

  12. #1572
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    Quote Originally Posted by msstate7 View Post
    My opinion is the documented cases are waaaaaay off, so the death rate is waaaay off. Hell, if you used only the documented cases of the flu, the death rate for the flu would be much, much higher. The CDC estimates how many have/had the flu to calculate death rate. The CDC estimates that between oct 1, 2019, and March 21, 2020, there have been 38-54 million cases of the flu. Now covid19 is supposedly twice as contagious, and there's no vaccine... now considering this, you telling me there have been only 961000 cases?
    https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden...-estimates.htm

  13. #1573
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    Quote Originally Posted by msstate7 View Post
    My opinion is the documented cases are waaaaaay off, so the death rate is waaaay off. Hell, if you used only the documented cases of the flu, the death rate for the flu would be much, much higher. The CDC estimates how many have/had the flu to calculate death rate. The CDC estimates that between oct 1, 2019, and March 21, 2020, there have been 38-54 million cases of the flu. Now covid19 is supposedly twice as contagious, and there's no vaccine... now considering this, you telling me there have been only 961000 cases?

    ETA... I realize corona is more deadly than the flu.
    I'd put the max actual cases at like 5 million. Remember, it started from 1 person. It takes a while for that to grow especially considering the longer incubation time.

    But it's not like all deaths are getting classified correctly either.

    [tweet2]1245161232476209154[/tweet2]

  14. #1574
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    Quote Originally Posted by hacker View Post
    I'd put the max actual cases at like 5 million. Remember, it started from 1 person. It takes a while for that to grow especially considering the longer incubation time.

    But it's not like all deaths are getting classified correctly either.

    [tweet2]1245161232476209154[/tweet2]
    5 million in the U.S.?

  15. #1575
    Senior Member msstate7's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by confucius say View Post
    5 million in the U.S.?
    Yeah, I'd like him to clarify this too. The CDC flu cases (38-54 million) above is US only

  16. #1576
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    Quote Originally Posted by confucius say View Post
    5 million in the U.S.?
    Probably max 1 million in the US. For every person sick enough to get a test, there may be 4 out there whose symptoms weren't bad enough to get tested.

    Iceland has been randomly testing everyone. They show 50% of positive cases are asymptomatic.

    https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/01/europ...ntl/index.html

    Edit: Assuming the 50% asymptomatic stat holds true, for there to be more than 1 million total cases, there would have to be more than twice as many undetected cases where the person is actually sick and not getting tested. I don't think that's true.
    Last edited by hacker; 04-02-2020 at 09:51 AM.

  17. #1577
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    Quote Originally Posted by hacker View Post
    You have to look at the current death rate numbers as "chance of dying when you're sick enough to get tested"

    Sure the actual rate will be much lower considering asymptomatic cases. And yes, Dr. Fauci said it's probably less than 1% overall. But I think he had a poor choice of words in that paper. Even a 4% death rate is "closer to the flu" than it is to the 10% from SARS.

    But if you're actually showing symptoms from this disease, the death rate is closer to SARS in some places. (And they're all increasing)
    I think you have to look at the current "death rate numbers" as all over the map and very situation specific. Unless Italy is actively doing something to tested people to make their death rate worse, I don't think it's anywhere near 11% of people sick enough to be tested. No clue what's actually happening; may be that people are so freaked out that they don't go to get tested unless it's bad enough that they need to be hospitalized. Could possibly be that they have some genetic predisposition that makes it particularly deadly, but I'm guessing it's more that the data has become even more unreliable since they've been overwhelmed by it.

  18. #1578
    Senior Member starkvegasdawg's Avatar
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    104 new cases and 4 new deaths in MS last 24 hours.

  19. #1579
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    Quote Originally Posted by hacker View Post
    Obviously not. But the death rate in all countries is increasing and it's totally fair to compare a country to where they were a week or two ago.
    In most of those countries unless you have severe symptoms that are close to putting you in the hospital you don't get tested, period. It's still pretty much that way here too.

  20. #1580
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    Quote Originally Posted by Liverpooldawg View Post
    In most of those countries unless you have severe symptoms that are close to putting you in the hospital you don't get tested, period. It's still pretty much that way here too.
    I don't think that's true. I think the large majority of tests are negative in all of those countries. Will verify later though.

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