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Thread: The Covid-19 Info thread (keep politics out please)

  1. #721
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    Quote Originally Posted by StateDawg44 View Post
    Speculation - the forming of a theory or conjecture without firm evidence.


    Yes TRENDS can be derived and predicted but they are still not always true. That number is certainly attainable. I don?t disagree but to act like it?s a guarantee and there is firm evidence to use this early is actually... speculating.





    They may NOT be pure facts either. You are speculating just like I?m speculating. See how that works. But I damn sum at not claiming shit that can?t be proven right this second.

    It?s a guess. There are too many variables for some of the numbers to not be off.
    Firm evidence. My evidence is previous countries responses to the outbreak, how the virus spread there. Our severely underwhelming response. How the virus has now spread to several hotspots. New York is up to 10k cases and we can only test 35k a week. There's like 20 million in that metro area... safe to say there's plenty of room left to grow.

    Everything we're basing the numbers on are facts. The only way we aren't at 100k positive by the end of the month is if our testing abilities don't drastically increase.

    Your last statement is you trying to be smart but failing to understand how statistics work. Yes, there are a lot of variables in play, that much is true. But we didn't say exactly 100k cases. We said more than 100k. And all those variables at play (except one) point to us easily clearing that mark. The one that doesn't is the one I made mention in my first post at you. That our lack of testing would not reveal properly.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Liverpooldawg View Post
    If you are talking about the ship in Japan yes it is a controlled population. One thing though, have you ever been on an overseas cruise? The average age on those is usually over 70.
    If that is the case for this particular cruise, then that is actually an even more positive sign IMO.

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    Quote Originally Posted by dantheman4248 View Post
    Firm evidence. My evidence is previous countries responses to the outbreak, how the virus spread there. Our severely underwhelming response. How the virus has now spread to several hotspots. New York is up to 10k cases and we can only test 35k a week. There's like 20 million in that metro area... safe to say there's plenty of room left to grow.

    Everything we're basing the numbers on are facts. The only way we aren't at 100k positive by the end of the month is if our testing abilities don't drastically increase.

    Your last statement is you trying to be smart but failing to understand how statistics work. Yes, there are a lot of variables in play, that much is true. But we didn't say exactly 100k cases. We said more than 100k. And all those variables at play (except one) point to us easily clearing that mark. The one that doesn't is the one I made mention in my first post at you. That our lack of testing would not reveal properly.
    You a stats guy huh? Didn't you predict 11 wins last year and Tommy better than Dak. Your track record ain't so hot so far.

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    Quote Originally Posted by dawgday166 View Post
    You a stats guy huh? Didn't you predict 11 wins last year and Tommy better than Dak. Your track record ain't so hot so far.
    Gosh. Better reject all facts and statistics then.

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    Quote Originally Posted by BulldogDX55 View Post
    Gosh. Better reject all facts and statistics then.
    My point is all the facts and statistics aren't in yet. And also giving Dano a hard time for giving so many others a hard time.

    As more people get tested, the total cases will rise quite significantly. And if people that don't have severe symptoms don't get tested, then the true numbers aren't there to analyze.

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    Quote Originally Posted by dawgday166 View Post
    You a stats guy huh? Didn't you predict 11 wins last year and Tommy better than Dak. Your track record ain't so hot so far.
    For posterity for other posters who will likely pile on. My model had 8 wins. Tennessee and Kansas State were the two I had wrong. I guessed 11 wins in a contest to come up with a unique answer. Apparently this makes me bad at statistics.

    Tell me, has anyone else here been employed by Mississippi State to teach statistics or is it just me?

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    Quote Originally Posted by yjnkdawg View Post
    This seems to be a good article to read. At least Brit Hume, of Fox News, thinks so and others who have retweeted it.

    https://medium.com/six-four-six-nine...9-1b767def5894
    Not sure I read the same article as everyone else here. Started bad and participated in bad faith with his stats.

    I'll roll from the top. 13% of Americans having it is mathematically impossible. A disease that can show no symptoms spreading like wildfire in a country that has minimal testing relative to its population. Mathematically impossible.

    Total cases are the wrong metric. Wholeheartedly agree here. That's obvious. And it also works both ways. The red circle map is a bad map (this is where I'm assuming most, not all stopped and praised this a good article. He makes an excellent point in his first statement, then rolls downhill from there. No need to read the rest.)

    Time lapsing... literally proves his bad faith statistics by posting a graph from a week ago and not updating it in either of his daily updates any day since. It's been posted in this thread I'm fairly certain here. He can absolutely update that graph. It's a troubling one that doesn't fit the narrative he wants though.

    Per Capita brings up a good point that he misinterpreted the wrong way. As this virus has made it to everywhere in the country at this point, it should show the room for growth. China culled it by isolating wuhan province and keeping everyone out. The best two case studies of end numbers are Wuhan's per capita infection and Italy's per capita infection. That means we are looking at another magnitude of 10-fold increase. And that's the maximum if we end up shutting shit down properly when that happens. We don't have a case with heavy spread where it wasn't massively shutdown.

    Talking about the Bell Curve with China and S. Korea. Those are very encouraging metrics. Makes me want to do what those two did. The Italy metric has not been updated. I wonder why?

    I'm stopping here because it's not worth reading anymore of this. I really don't want to have the argument again about how summer heat will not kill this when we can't know for sure because no way in hell africa has proper testing. Especially when they have a different biblical plague going on with the swarms of locusts.


    So yea, he made a solid point that certain metrics are designed to scare. That red circle map is bad. I agree. Other than that, not so good. Let me know if he updates the metrics that will go against his narrative in that article. Then I would be more inclined to read the rest of what I'm sure is the same schlock for the rest of the 20 ish things in his table of contents.

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    Quote Originally Posted by BulldogDX55 View Post
    Gosh. Better reject all facts and statistics then.

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    Quote Originally Posted by dawgday166 View Post
    My point is all the facts and statistics aren't in yet. And also giving Dano a hard time for giving so many others a hard time.

    As more people get tested, the total cases will rise quite significantly. And if people that don't have severe symptoms don't get tested, then the true numbers aren't there to analyze.
    Ehh. Bad time to make jokes like that imo. If it was sports related, sure. This is a whole other animal. And of course a lot of stats aren't in yet. But looking at the "why" can point you in the right directions. Or as another poster put it, doing your due diligence.

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    Quote Originally Posted by dawgday166 View Post
    Really good read. I been thinking some of the same things written in this article, as I'm sure others have too. And anyone claiming absolute knowledge of all the wealth of data out there is a fool. Unless every single person is tested, there are not absolute stats.

    And if the government really wanted to help folks while they ain't working, they would make a temp law to suspend loan/mortgage payments and interest on principle for a while. But they don't want the big bankers to have to survive on less than multi-million dollar bonuses each year. Those banks are still gonna expect those payments to be made up somehow ... I can guarantee you that.

    In the meantime, 4 republican Senators and Feinstein got out of the market well in advance of the crash and made millions.



    And if people don't think that there are some in the US who are glad that we are in a chaotic and panic mode (even due to a pandemic health crisis), and also that it was announced that the stock market had lost all gains under the current administration, then those people don't know what reality is.
    Last edited by yjnkdawg; 03-21-2020 at 01:05 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by dantheman4248 View Post
    Not sure I read the same article as everyone else here. Started bad and participated in bad faith with his stats.

    I'll roll from the top. 13% of Americans having it is mathematically impossible. A disease that can show no symptoms spreading like wildfire in a country that has minimal testing relative to its population. Mathematically impossible.

    Total cases are the wrong metric. Wholeheartedly agree here. That's obvious. And it also works both ways. The red circle map is a bad map (this is where I'm assuming most, not all stopped and praised this a good article. He makes an excellent point in his first statement, then rolls downhill from there. No need to read the rest.)

    Time lapsing... literally proves his bad faith statistics by posting a graph from a week ago and not updating it in either of his daily updates any day since. It's been posted in this thread I'm fairly certain here. He can absolutely update that graph. It's a troubling one that doesn't fit the narrative he wants though.

    Per Capita brings up a good point that he misinterpreted the wrong way. As this virus has made it to everywhere in the country at this point, it should show the room for growth. China culled it by isolating wuhan province and keeping everyone out. The best two case studies of end numbers are Wuhan's per capita infection and Italy's per capita infection. That means we are looking at another magnitude of 10-fold increase. And that's the maximum if we end up shutting shit down properly when that happens. We don't have a case with heavy spread where it wasn't massively shutdown.

    Talking about the Bell Curve with China and S. Korea. Those are very encouraging metrics. Makes me want to do what those two did. The Italy metric has not been updated. I wonder why?

    I'm stopping here because it's not worth reading anymore of this. I really don't want to have the argument again about how summer heat will not kill this when we can't know for sure because no way in hell africa has proper testing. Especially when they have a different biblical plague going on with the swarms of locusts.


    So yea, he made a solid point that certain metrics are designed to scare. That red circle map is bad. I agree. Other than that, not so good. Let me know if he updates the metrics that will go against his narrative in that article. Then I would be more inclined to read the rest of what I'm sure is the same schlock for the rest of the 20 ish things in his table of contents.
    Glad you enjoyed the article.***

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    Quote Originally Posted by dantheman4248 View Post
    Ehh. Bad time to make jokes like that imo. If it was sports related, sure. This is a whole other animal. And of course a lot of stats aren't in yet. But looking at the "why" can point you in the right directions. Or as another poster put it, doing your due diligence.
    I was trying to lighten up the fact that you and deadhead are bashing a lot of folks if they think differently than you. And a lot of it is still conjecture. And the stats primarily show this affects older people. Now I have compassion for older people but what about those young folks that won't be able to put a roof over their heads or feed their kids cause of this. Is there no compassion for them? And I can just about guarantee you they will absorb the brunt of this.

    My main point is most of us don't have the answers, we just have opinions. And that includes you.

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    Quote Originally Posted by yjnkdawg View Post
    Glad you enjoyed the article.***
    No rebuffing anything I said? I took the time to state why I think it's a bad article rather than making a snarky short reply. Why not respond in kind telling me, if where, I'm wrong. I'm here to have discourse and learn. Be that I learn, or someone else learns.

    Snarky replies like this tell me you shared this to pad your view and accepted only what you wanted to see. That's a major problem with America. Too many people set in their ways no willing to even entertain someone arguing the opposite side could be right. I'm here to listen if you can make good points. That article even had a solid point and I do agree that there overall is some people in power wanting to fear monger and drive hysteria up. They don't care about the american people, just their checkbook and their power. And that's not party exclusive.

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    Quote Originally Posted by yjnkdawg View Post
    And if people don't think that there are some in the US who are glad that we are in a chaotic and panic mode (even due to a pandemic health crisis), and also that it was announced that the stock market had lost all gains under the current administration, then those people don't know what reality is.
    I guess this would be the first time in human history we discovered the existence of a few assholes...**

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    Quote Originally Posted by dawgday166 View Post
    I was trying to lighten up the fact that you and deadhead are bashing a lot of folks if they think differently than you. And a lot of it is still conjecture. And the stats primarily show this affects older people. Now I have compassion for older people but what about those young folks that won't be able to put a roof over their heads or feed their kids cause of this. Is there no compassion for them? And I can just about guarantee you they will absorb the brunt of this.

    My main point is most of us don't have the answers, we just have opinions. And that includes you.

    I know I'm being crass but it's been painfully obvious where this pandemic was going since the start of the month. I would have hoped that the market crash day would have shown the light to people but apparently it doesn't.

    I'll be honest, as this continues to progress my thoughts on our response have evolved. We've let it get too far gone. I thought a quick 14 day countrywide quarantine with a check for everyone would have been the most effective culling. Now that that is basically impossible and the virus is already spread so wide, it is hard to think that quarantining is the route that is going to save the most lives. Push comes to shove we're about to unmask just how bad our economy is if we really keep what we have currently through the start of April with no stimulus package for poor people.

    Then it becomes a choice of as you said, between poor people and old people. Hard choice. It shouldn't have gotten to here and that's part of my anger, but we could be at the point already where continuing to semi-quarantine is not the best choice for Americans as a whole going forward. And then my fear is that the sunk cost of semi-quarantining will be used as a reason to keep going. It's not a good proposition at all.

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    Senior Member msstate7's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by dantheman4248 View Post
    Not sure I read the same article as everyone else here. Started bad and participated in bad faith with his stats.

    I'll roll from the top. 13% of Americans having it is mathematically impossible. A disease that can show no symptoms spreading like wildfire in a country that has minimal testing relative to its population. Mathematically impossible.

    Total cases are the wrong metric. Wholeheartedly agree here. That's obvious. And it also works both ways. The red circle map is a bad map (this is where I'm assuming most, not all stopped and praised this a good article. He makes an excellent point in his first statement, then rolls downhill from there. No need to read the rest.)

    Time lapsing... literally proves his bad faith statistics by posting a graph from a week ago and not updating it in either of his daily updates any day since. It's been posted in this thread I'm fairly certain here. He can absolutely update that graph. It's a troubling one that doesn't fit the narrative he wants though.

    Per Capita brings up a good point that he misinterpreted the wrong way. As this virus has made it to everywhere in the country at this point, it should show the room for growth. China culled it by isolating wuhan province and keeping everyone out. The best two case studies of end numbers are Wuhan's per capita infection and Italy's per capita infection. That means we are looking at another magnitude of 10-fold increase. And that's the maximum if we end up shutting shit down properly when that happens. We don't have a case with heavy spread where it wasn't massively shutdown.

    Talking about the Bell Curve with China and S. Korea. Those are very encouraging metrics. Makes me want to do what those two did. The Italy metric has not been updated. I wonder why?

    I'm stopping here because it's not worth reading anymore of this. I really don't want to have the argument again about how summer heat will not kill this when we can't know for sure because no way in hell africa has proper testing. Especially when they have a different biblical plague going on with the swarms of locusts.


    So yea, he made a solid point that certain metrics are designed to scare. That red circle map is bad. I agree. Other than that, not so good. Let me know if he updates the metrics that will go against his narrative in that article. Then I would be more inclined to read the rest of what I'm sure is the same schlock for the rest of the 20 ish things in his table of contents.
    13% May not be impossible, but it's very, very unlikely imo. Let's look at the most infected country in the world, Italy. Currently, they're infected at 886 cases per million, 0.09%. To get to 13% there, they'd have to be infected at 146.7 times where they are now, 130,000 cases per million. Currently, we sit at 69 cases per million, 0.007%. Now this is wrong, but it would have to be at 1884 times worse than current reported to be at 13% infection rate. What's your prediction for when it's all said and done?
    Last edited by msstate7; 03-21-2020 at 01:40 PM.

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    What do you think the actual death rate is considering the lack of testing? .25%ish?

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    Meanwhile, at the Tupelo flea market...

    573E00AF-B13B-4027-9413-87EEF7A466FB.jpg

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    Quote Originally Posted by starkvegasdawg View Post
    Meanwhile, at the Tupelo flea market...

    573E00AF-B13B-4027-9413-87EEF7A466FB.jpg
    So much for the safety of rural living....for ****s sake, people.

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    Quote Originally Posted by msstate7 View Post
    13% May not be impossible, but it's very, very unlikely imo. Let's look at the most infected country in the world, Italy. Currently, they're infected at 886 cases per million, 0.09%. To get to 13% there, they'd have to be infected at 146.7 times where they are now, 130,000 cases per million. Currently, we sit at 69 cases per million, 0.007%. Now this is wrong, but it would have to be at 1884 times worse than current reported to be at 13% infection rate. What's your prediction for when it's all said and done?
    Hard to make a prediction THAT far out. That's trying to project A. our ever changing response and B. multiple months down the road once we can see where the bell curve hits in a country that's not doing near what it should to cull it. Assuming that we do what America / our leadership does, I think our self quarantining will inevitably fail and people will go back to work because they need money. This will cause a bigger spread than most every other country. How that projects out is unclear. It's not unreasonable to see where by the end of the calendar year we've had 10+% of the country infected with it. From that percentage I'd also guesstimate about average death rate. (Which so far looks to be 10% of closed (recovered or dead) cases. I'd adjust that down to at most 5% due to just guestimating that half of the people who want to get tested are turned away.) In fact I think that 10% itself goes down by at least half as we make more progress. So we'll say 2% to be conservative. So taking a conservative shot of 10% infected and 2% death rate, that projects to 650k deaths in America. I'd be predicting more conservatively here, so my final guess would be about 500k deaths in America. But that's a very rough estimate.

    Now I could be (and hope) wrong about our response, but we've missed our window to cull this. We've missed it badly. I don't see us going on pause for more than 2 months. It's simply not viable. Not without universal basic income which it seems we have decided to "fix" the initial idea and make it absolutely worse. So yea, another not good signal that we're gonna botch this.

    It's crazy. Should have never gotten to this point. Should have shut down the borders earlier and had rigorous testing and quarantining. That can't be forgotten when this is all over. But for now we need to come together and start making smart decisions. Injecting $2k into every american home is a smart decision. Fiddling with it, lowering it, and scaling it to give poor people EVEN LESS is a totally bad idea. How this is even in discussion let alone actually going to happen is beyond comprehension.
    Last edited by dantheman4248; 03-21-2020 at 02:26 PM.

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