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Thread: The Covid-19 Info thread (keep politics out please)

  1. #621
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    Quote Originally Posted by hacker View Post
    Me too, especially when you consider the asymptomatic/mild cases that aren't being detected. But it's still the best data we have at this point.

    But just keep in mind, SARS had a 10% death rate, MERS > 30%. COVID is in the same family.
    Also in the same family as a common cold. This is bad, but we have some decent outer bounds on the potential death rate absent improved treatments and absent a mutation or some increased risk present outside of Asia.

    It's probably going to be somewhere between .5% to 1.2% with current treatment, and then maybe as high as 3.5% if hospitals are overwhelmed and the experiences of the hardest hit countries become typical. Pretty much all of those rates are awful with how contagious this is, with 3.5% being maybe the biggest catastrophe in modern history? But unless we find out obesity is a death knell when combined with COVID-19, I am optimistic we will end up around that 1% number or less (which is still awful and will be a generation defining event unlike anything since probably WWII, or maybe Vietnam depending on how you look at it).

  2. #622
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    Quote Originally Posted by hacker View Post
    Me too, especially when you consider the asymptomatic/mild cases that aren't being detected. But it's still the best data we have at this point.

    But just keep in mind, SARS had a 10% death rate, MERS > 30%. COVID is in the same family.
    COVID is also in the same family as some common colds. Most viral respiratory panels test for 3-4 different coronavirus strains.
    Far Moorhead yaw

  3. #623
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    Pennsylvania, California, and now NY governors have issued executive orders for lockdowns. Looks like instead of a national lockdown, it's just going to go state by state.

  4. #624
    Senior Member msstate7's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by hacker View Post
    Pennsylvania, California, and now NY governors have issued executive orders for lockdowns. Looks like instead of a national lockdown, it's just going to go state by state.
    In the states with lockdowns, what is considered essential business for exclusions?

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    Quote Originally Posted by dawgs View Post
    Yeah, I'd take the guy that cut the pandemic response team that Obama put into place over obama who had experience with the Ebola and MERS outbreaks elsewhere in the world under his administration, saw the threat, and put a team together to have logistics plans in place and ready to mobilize in these exact type scenarios. But maybe that's just my bias showing.
    Ignoring the false talking point about getting rid of the pandemic response capabilities, if you want to take into account Obama's experience with the Swine Flu and assumign he'd learn, that's probably a good argument. I was talking more about facing a new, unprecedented situation. Based on their demonstrated competence at things like rolling out Obamacare, I wouldn't want them on their first crack at a pandemic with one like this but giving them the benefit of what utlimatley woudl look like a dry run, they hopefully would be better. Again, probably wouldn't make a huge difference as a lot of the responsibility lies with non-political appointees, but maybe marginally better.

  6. #626
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    Quote Originally Posted by WeWonItAll(Most) View Post
    COVID is also in the same family as some common colds. Most viral respiratory panels test for 3-4 different coronavirus strains.
    I understand that. But it's called SARS-CoV-2 for a reason.

  7. #627
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    Quote Originally Posted by msstate7 View Post
    In the states with lockdowns, what is considered essential business for exclusions?
    Pennsylvania's list: https://www.documentcloud.org/docume....html#document
    Last edited by hacker; 03-20-2020 at 10:52 AM.

  8. #628
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    Quote Originally Posted by hacker View Post
    I understand that. But it's called SARS-CoV-2 for a reason.
    The reason is not that its a variant of the previous SARS that had 10% mortality
    Far Moorhead yaw

  9. #629
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    Quote Originally Posted by Johnson85 View Post
    Ignoring the false talking point about getting rid of the pandemic response capabilities, if you want to take into account Obama's experience with the Swine Flu and assumign he'd learn, that's probably a good argument. I was talking more about facing a new, unprecedented situation. Based on their demonstrated competence at things like rolling out Obamacare, I wouldn't want them on their first crack at a pandemic with one like this but giving them the benefit of what utlimatley woudl look like a dry run, they hopefully would be better. Again, probably wouldn't make a huge difference as a lot of the responsibility lies with non-political appointees, but maybe marginally better.
    But the thing is it's not a false narrative (even Fauci has said he wishes the team was in place), he learned, he put a team in place, he left that for every successive president, I'm sure trump was briefed on pandemic responses in the transition just like happens with every transition, and he decided it wasn't a real threat and worth the $$, so he cut it because somehow we've been at a point where "no government spending and tax cuts" constitutes a valid political position and receives praise. It shows no critical thinking at all because folks just wanna cut shit without knowing what that actually entails. I hope this ordeal wakes people up that parrot those lines as their politics.

    The CDC handles studying and researching the virus itself, treatments and vaccines, not the logistics of ramping up emergency testing, emergency hospitals, supply chains for basic healthcare needs like masks and gloves, etc. we are doing it on the fly now and with a hodgepodge of plans of various effectiveness in different states that's going to be a problem in the short term (long term when things are stabilized, more localized plans make sense, but we are months from that). Fema handles natural disasters. The logistics handling a hurricane or earthquake aftermath ain't like handling a pandemic. So kindly stop peddling you "false narrative" false narrative about there being no loss of capabilities by cutting the team in charge of planning for and ensuring our capabilities. Of course they wouldn't have "prevented" anything. They would probably make some mistakes too, but it's better than what we have now where all we've done is make mistakes.
    Last edited by dawgs; 03-20-2020 at 11:11 AM.

  10. #630
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    Quote Originally Posted by WeWonItAll(Most) View Post
    The reason is not that its a variant of the previous SARS that had 10% mortality
    "From a taxonomic perspective, SARS-CoV-2 is classified as a strain of the species severe acute respiratory syndrome-related coronavirus (SARSr-CoV)."

    They're more like siblings though, you're technically right

  11. #631
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    [QUOTE=Churchill;1238586]
    Quote Originally Posted by Commercecomet24 View Post
    Anyone heard about refinery's shutting down and gas supplies being shut down due to the corona?[/QUOTE

    If we see this, how do we know it's not part of an effort to prop up prices in the face of quickly declining consumption figures ? In this country always remember to follow the money first.
    People need to stop believing that big oil is evil. The largest oil operators in the US are doing all they can right now to continue to produce and supply at a rate before this pandemic. It has taken over the industry. There are meetings nonstop all day to ensure that workers are kept healthy and production continues. Workers have volunteered to stay offshore for over a month at a time (for some) to eliminate new people flying to facilities. All this while losing money in the current oil price.

    ETA: Not the workers losing money. They getting taken care of.
    Last edited by DownwardDawg; 03-20-2020 at 11:16 AM.

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    [QUOTE=DownwardDawg;1238626]
    Quote Originally Posted by Churchill View Post

    People need to stop believing that big oil is evil. The largest oil operators in the US are doing all they can right now to continue to produce and supply at a rate before this pandemic. It has taken over the industry. There are meetings nonstop all day to ensure that workers are kept healthy and production continues. Workers have volunteered to stay offshore for over a month at a time (for some) to eliminate new people flying to facilities. All this while losing money in the current oil price.

    ETA: Not the workers losing money. They getting taken care of.
    Im with ya! I have a number of friend and family that work in various positions in the oil industry, on shore and offshore. They are all hard working, dedicated people.

  13. #633
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    Quote Originally Posted by dawgs View Post
    But that's the thing, he learned, he put a team in place, he left that for every successive president, I'm sure trump was briefed on pandemic responses in the transition just like happens with every transition, and he decided it wasn't a real threat and worth the $$, so he cut it because somehow we've been at a point where "no government spending and tax cuts" constitutes a valid political position and receives praise. It shows no critical thinking at all because folks just wanna cut shit without knowing what that actually entails. I hope this ordeal wakes people up that parrot those lines as their politics.
    He reorganized. That's not the same thing as cutting. The NSC isn't supposed to house all of your government response capabilities.

  14. #634
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    As with many things the President is prone to get way too much credit or blame for things simply because he's the guy in front of the microphone.

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    [QUOTE=DownwardDawg;1238626]
    Quote Originally Posted by Churchill View Post

    People need to stop believing that big oil is evil. The largest oil operators in the US are doing all they can right now to continue to produce and supply at a rate before this pandemic. It has taken over the industry. There are meetings nonstop all day to ensure that workers are kept healthy and production continues. Workers have volunteered to stay offshore for over a month at a time (for some) to eliminate new people flying to facilities. All this while losing money in the current oil price.

    ETA: Not the workers losing money. They getting taken care of.
    I was born into a family of independent business people. I am a capitalist and will die a capitalist. I've encouraged my children to do the same. I am not saying "big oil is evil" I am saying big oil is capitalistic. Capitalism is rough and tumble and has to deal with realities to be successful. During a time of historic reductions in consumption of gasoline I would have no problem AT ALL with cutting back production. Why wouldn't they ? I just don't think that throwing "oh my God our refineries are closing" into the coronavirus spiraling panic is a good thing right now.

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    You know, when I think about this long term I really don't see a way out of this. covid will never be eradicated, it's like the flu in that regard. So every year when the conditions are right it'll crop back up. And -just like with the flu- it'll keep mutating and vaccines won't be 100% effective.

    It also appears that recovering from Covid doesn't give you any immunity to it, let alone future strains, and we know from SARS studies that antibodies for that wore off in about 3 years so it's likely to be true for this too.

    So what we have is a population that can't build up true immunities, vaccines that can't stay ahead of the mutations, a virus that can't be removed from the world, that takes 1-2 weeks before symptoms appear (compared to 1-3 days for the flu), and is extremely deadly.

    I think in 20 years we'll regard this outbreak as a changing point in humanity, like 9/11, or the end of WW2 setting up the cold war. Covid will be regarded like cancer, or car crashes; a deadly thing that could take anyone and we just have to live with it. As we expect old people might get cancer we will expect old people to be hospitalized by covid. It's the new reality

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    Quote Originally Posted by KOdawg1 View Post
    I wish you would take your own advice.
    Except I'm not the one that is uniformed.
    Last edited by deadheaddawg; 03-20-2020 at 11:53 AM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by the_real_MSU_is_us View Post
    You know, when I think about this long term I really don't see a way out of this. covid will never be eradicated, it's like the flu in that regard. So every year when the conditions are right it'll crop back up. And -just like with the flu- it'll keep mutating and vaccines won't be 100% effective.

    It also appears that recovering from Covid doesn't give you any immunity to it, let alone future strains, and we know from SARS studies that antibodies for that wore off in about 3 years so it's likely to be true for this too.

    So what we have is a population that can't build up true immunities, vaccines that can't stay ahead of the mutations, a virus that can't be removed from the world, that takes 1-2 weeks before symptoms appear (compared to 1-3 days for the flu), and is extremely deadly.

    I think in 20 years we'll regard this outbreak as a changing point in humanity, like 9/11, or the end of WW2 setting up the cold war. Covid will be regarded like cancer, or car crashes; a deadly thing that could take anyone and we just have to live with it. As we expect old people might get cancer we will expect old people to be hospitalized by covid. It's the new reality
    Its to early to know, but there is no reason to believe you can be reinfected with COVID-19. Right now I wouldn't expect its overall life course to be much different than SARS.

  19. #639
    Senior Member WeWonItAll(Most)'s Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by the_real_MSU_is_us View Post
    You know, when I think about this long term I really don't see a way out of this. covid will never be eradicated, it's like the flu in that regard. So every year when the conditions are right it'll crop back up. And -just like with the flu- it'll keep mutating and vaccines won't be 100% effective.

    It also appears that recovering from Covid doesn't give you any immunity to it, let alone future strains, and we know from SARS studies that antibodies for that wore off in about 3 years so it's likely to be true for this too.

    So what we have is a population that can't build up true immunities, vaccines that can't stay ahead of the mutations, a virus that can't be removed from the world, that takes 1-2 weeks before symptoms appear (compared to 1-3 days for the flu), and is extremely deadly.

    I think in 20 years we'll regard this outbreak as a changing point in humanity, like 9/11, or the end of WW2 setting up the cold war. Covid will be regarded like cancer, or car crashes; a deadly thing that could take anyone and we just have to live with it. As we expect old people might get cancer we will expect old people to be hospitalized by covid. It's the new reality
    While viruses are notorious for mutating (hence the situation we're in now) the flu's ability to mutate is truly unique to the family of virus it belongs to, which makes comparing any non-flu virus to the flu very difficult. The mechanisms that it has to mutate makes rapidly mutating more of a rule of thumb for the flu rather than an exceptional outlying event (like COVID). So a vaccine will hopefully, and should be, much more effective for COVID than the seasonal flu.

    With regards to antibodies, they are sort of like muscles. If you don't use them you lose them (which is why we have vaccines). According to my google search, there hasn't been a known transmission of SARS since 2004, so it only makes sense that we lose anti-SARS antibodies since the virus isn't moving through the population any longer. If this virus sticks around and doesn't significantly mutate we should be able to continue to mount antibody responses against it and eventually have more of a herd immunity against it. What gives me encouragement, without having done any research on the subject, is that SARS came and went without a vaccine or extreme measures (that I'm aware of). It didn't mutate again, which should definitely be encouraging with regards to this coronavirus, but it also seemingly wasn't as infectious.



    For anyone interested, I linked a 3 minute Youtube video below explaining what makes the flu so erratic. What makes coronavirus different is it has positive RNA, which means its reliant on the host cell's enzymes to reproduce its genome. Unlike the flu's polymerase, host cell polymerase has a ton of "spellchecks" to ensure correct replication. Because whereas mutations are advantageous for virus, mutations in non-virus genomes are either silent or bad (cell death/cancer). Very, very rarely advantageous.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dUYIUFlsEJ8
    Last edited by WeWonItAll(Most); 03-20-2020 at 12:29 PM.
    Far Moorhead yaw

  20. #640
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    [tweet2]1241049932569640960[/tweet2]

    Deaths have almost doubled from ~2100 to ~4000 in 4 days

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