The Covid-19 Info thread (keep politics out please)

[KOdawg1]

Just another flu season in July! I can't believe that testing is causing a rural system to send their patients 3 hours away since their normal referral hospitals are full!***

https://tippahnews.com/2020/07/18/mi...sfer-patients/

Below is a message from our Hospital Administrator Sydney Sawyer from Lackey Memorial Hospital in Forest:

Everyone please stay vigilant. As most of you know , I am an RN and the CEO of a small rural hospital, I have dealt with infection control for 25 years or so.

I have no reason other than concern for encouraging you to wear your mask.

We are now not able to transfer patients to the normal tertiary facilities that we always use.

Their ICUs are full and this is July! Wait until flu hits. We are in Forest Mississippi and we are having to transfer the seriously ill to places as far away as Tupelo.

I didn't negate any of that.

[State82]

Well, according to the director of our local rather large hospital about three weeks ago. You could count them separately but you couldn’t report them separately to the state at the time.

But maybe he didn’t know what he was talking about******

Oh come on Dawgology. You mean you did not realize that this forum is chock full of world renowned epidemiologists that are without question the foremost experts in this novel virus. My advice for about 99 percent of people here spouting supposed undeniable facts or comments regarding this pandemic and the associated fallout is to STFU.

[Turfdawg67]

In Florida, 49 of the state's hospitals with ICU beds were reporting none available, the state's Agency for Health Care Administration posted on its website as of Sunday at 5:30 p.m. ET.

Oh come on Dawgology. You mean you did not realize that this forum is chock full of world renowned epidemiologists that are without question the foremost experts in this novel virus. My advice for about 99 percent of people here spouting supposed undeniable facts or comments regarding this pandemic and the associated fallout is to STFU.

No, and...

[Cooterpoot]

In Florida, 49 of the state's hospitals with ICU beds were reporting none available, the state's Agency for Health Care Administration posted on its website as of Sunday at 5:30 p.m. ET.



No, and...

Florida has like 350 hospitals. Most of which have an ICU.

[Turfdawg67]

Florida has like 350 hospitals. Most of which have an ICU.

And as of last week 84% were occupied.

Meh, prob fake news anyway. **

[confucius say]

And as of last week 84% were occupied.

Meh, prob fake news anyway. **

That's not uncommon. I'm honestly shocked it's not 95%

[msstate7]

That's not uncommon. I'm honestly shocked it's not 95%

This was what I was wondering. Current % means nothing without normal %. I do think Florida is being hammered right now though.

[msstate7]

NY's numbers are gonna be fascinating to watch. They just had another problem with a big crowd ignoring social distancing today ( https://www.pix11.com/news/local-new...it-the-streets ) after the same thing Friday night. If their numbers don't start going up soon, I think they've hit some sort of immunity wall.

[Gutter Cobreh]

And as of last week 84% were occupied.

Meh, prob fake news anyway. **

That's not uncommon. I'm honestly shocked it's not 95%

This was what I was wondering. Current % means nothing without normal %. I do think Florida is being hammered right now though.

"“It’s all very flexible and fluid depending on the patient scenario in our hospital,” Neilsen said. “We probably run on average about 70% ICU occupied anyway. During the winter, most hospitals are running closer to 80 to 85% ICU occupancy. So the numbers can fluctuate quite a bit.”"

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.new...outputType=amp

[Cooterpoot]

And as of last week 84% were occupied.

Meh, prob fake news anyway. **

Then you should've said that instead of the number you presented. But they're not piling up bodies yet. And they won't. Not like NY.

[Dawg2003]

NY's numbers are gonna be fascinating to watch. They just had another problem with a big crowd ignoring social distancing today ( https://www.pix11.com/news/local-new...it-the-streets ) after the same thing Friday night. If their numbers don't start going up soon, I think they've hit some sort of immunity wall.

I also want to see how the South fares compared to NYC. The South is not really doing much to stop the virus right now, but New York was on lockdown for awhile. Will be interesting to compare the two in retrospect.

[Todd4State]

I also want to see how the South fares compared to NYC. The South is not really doing much to stop the virus right now, but New York was on lockdown for awhile. Will be interesting to compare the two in retrospect.

My educated guess is the South in general will have fewer deaths simply because we know how to treat it better than NYC did. Among other things.

[msstate7]

"“It’s all very flexible and fluid depending on the patient scenario in our hospital,” Neilsen said. “We probably run on average about 70% ICU occupied anyway. During the winter, most hospitals are running closer to 80 to 85% ICU occupancy. So the numbers can fluctuate quite a bit.”"

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.new...outputType=amp

https://twitter.com/rebelacole/statu...495883266?s=21

[msstate7]

Florida vs NY vs TX death chart...

[Dawg2003]

https://twitter.com/rebelacole/statu...495883266?s=21

That's good. You will have enough staff if you stop doing elective procedures. The problem is the hospital will lose money.

[Dawgology]

My educated guess is the South in general will have fewer deaths simply because we know how to treat it better than NYC did. Among other things.

And it is much MUCH more rural than NYC. MUCH.

It appears that this virus will (for the most part) have to run it's course. NYC got destroyed because it landed there first and their population is dense. The south went on lock down before the virus got here en masse like it did it NYC. By the time NYC was aware of the problem the virus has infilatrated NYC completely. As the south came out of quarantine the inevitable happened...cases rose...the virus is here now.

What will be interesting is to see how NYC fairs over the next month. It will be a litmus test for the rest of the country. It's really bad news if we start seeing a massive spike in NYC over the next 3-4 weeks.

[Dawgology]

https://twitter.com/rebelacole/statu...495883266?s=21

Stats. I'm not saying that this isn't "good" news but this could be a result of many hospitals stopping elective surgeries. We also saw a lot of hospitals mirror this drop back in April/May at the height of the Covid scare because many people stopped going to the hospital in general out of fear of exposure so occupancy in general dropped.

[StateDawg44]

And it is much MUCH more rural than NYC. MUCH.

It appears that this virus will (for the most part) have to run it's course. NYC got destroyed because it landed there first and their population is dense. The south went on lock down before the virus got here en masse like it did it NYC. By the time NYC was aware of the problem the virus has infilatrated NYC completely. As the south came out of quarantine the inevitable happened...cases rose...the virus is here now.

What will be interesting is to see how NYC fairs over the next month. It will be a litmus test for the rest of the country. It's really bad news if we start seeing a massive spike in NYC over the next 3-4 weeks.

So when do you believe COVID first arrived in the US?

Not when was it first detected. The first case on US soil before it was a known virus.

[DownwardDawg]

So when do you believe COVID first arrived in the US?

Not when was it first detected. The first case on US soil before it was a known virus.

My daughter and family went on a Disney cruise out of Miami the first week of December. She got seriously ill. Was finally diagnosed with an “unknown virus “. Two negative flu tests and they still treated her with tamiflu. It finally ran its course. My granddaughter was 5 at the time. She was almost admitted to the hospital. High fever for several days and again no diagnosis could be made.

[Dawgology]

So when do you believe COVID first arrived in the US?

Not when was it first detected. The first case on US soil before it was a known virus.

There's no way to know a specific date. Sometime between November 2019 and January 2020 I'm sure. That would be based on when it was first identified in Wuhan and CDC estimations.

It took until March 2020 for it to show up in high enough numbers in NYC for it to be a bona fide emergency and that's when the governor ordered a shutdown. So it took about 2 months for it to reach excessive levels in a densly populated area like NYC and that was before any controls were in place to reduce spread. The battle was over before their lockdown began. At that point it was just mitigating damages.

The entire nation (pretty much) followed suit and went on lockdown or stay at home orders by April. This slowed the virus for the rest of the nation but something like this won't be entirely stopped and it's R0 value just means that when an unaffected area reopens and a few cases show up it will spread (probably unassumingly) through that population over a few weeks and then it will blow up.

But the fact remains that due to the ruralness of middle america there is no way the virus could have reached those areas in the same capacity that it did NYC in that same time frame. It took 2 months to reach those levels in one of the largest most traveled to cities in the entire world. It's just not possible it makes no statistical sense. The response to this epidemic is not one size fits all and now you have middle america (including the southeast) weighing a second lockdown after barely surviving a first lockdown that probably wasn't 100% needed.