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Thread: The Covid-19 Info thread (keep politics out please)

  1. #281
    Senior Member Dawgology's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by hacker View Post
    China:

    [tweet2]1239455780996173828[/tweet2]

    America:

    [tweet2]1239240620700549122[/tweet2]
    You're going to compare Guangzhou (a city that has been in quarantine) to O'Hare (the 4th busiest airport in the entire world)??? HAHAHAHAHAHAAHAHAHAHAHAAHAHAHAHHAHAHAAHAHAHHAAHAHA HAHAAH

    Let's compare GTR to O'Hare. No wait lines AT ALL there. They must have their shit together!!!!!

  2. #282
    Senior Member hacker's Avatar
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    When was the city of Guangzhou in quarantine?

    Guangzhou was never in quarantine. But even if it was, the point is that China is prepared and we are not. Guangzhou airport is the 13th busiest airport in the world. So yes, I am making that comparison.
    Last edited by hacker; 03-17-2020 at 08:59 AM.

  3. #283
    Senior Member Dawgology's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by hacker View Post
    When was the city of Guangzhou in quarantine?

    Guangzhou was never in quarantine. But even if it was, the point is that China is prepared and we are not. Guangzhou airport is the 13th busiest airport in the world. So yes, I am making that comparison.
    17th busiest and all flights in and out of China (regardless of location) have been very limited over the past month. There is no comparison right now. Additionally, you have MANY US citizens rushing to get home right now so major hubs are at almost double capacity. You can't have it both ways. Either accept mandatory screening at reentry or be ok with anyone coming back into the country untested. Also, those 15 minute tests are highly innacurate, regularly give false negatives, and are still in an experimental phase. Using them as your primary screening tool is foolhardy at best.

  4. #284
    Senior Member hacker's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dawgology View Post
    There is no comparison right now.
    Exactly. The point is, we issued a travel ban and knew these people would be coming home at the same time. And all we did was ask them questions which in turn caused 6 hour lines of people packed in like sardines. You can't compare our containment effort to China's and say "look, they did it! We'll be fine!"

  5. #285
    Senior Member Dawgology's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by hacker View Post
    Exactly. The point is, we issued a travel ban and knew these people would be coming home at the same time. And all we did was ask them questions which in turn caused 6 hour lines of people packed in like sardines. You can't compare our containment effort to China's and say "look, they did it! We'll be fine!"
    Our containment efforts shouldn't be the same as China's efforts. Different country. Different people. Much larger population. Different social structure. Different economy. Different government. There are certain general guidelines that should be followed but each country will need to craft a plan that fits their country.

  6. #286
    Senior Member hacker's Avatar
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    9 new cases in Mississippi, 21 total. Up from 12 yesterday.

    e x p o n e n t i a l

    It will double every few days. Where does that put us in a month?

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    And there’s still very little testing being done in the U.S. And when they finally start doing it en mass, I bet they still won’t release all the data that needs to be released so that we can make an informed judgement of the risk. South Korea learned this with SARS and rectified it when Covid19 broke out, and it made a huge difference. . I’m sure that instead of learning from South Korea’s mistake in 2003, we’re gong to repeat it in 2020.
    There's someone in my head but its not me.

  8. #288
    Senior Member hacker's Avatar
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    Italy:

    February 20: 4 cases
    March 16: 27,980 cases

    What exactly is going to happen when we have around 30,000 people sick in this state?

  9. #289
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    Quote Originally Posted by hacker View Post
    9 new cases in Mississippi, 21 total. Up from 12 yesterday.

    e x p o n e n t i a l

    It will double every few days. Where does that put us in a month?
    We're in wait and see mode now. We are basically waiting to see if we follow Italy's numbers.

  10. #290
    Senior Member Dawgology's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by hacker View Post
    9 new cases in Mississippi, 21 total. Up from 12 yesterday.

    e x p o n e n t i a l

    It will double every few days. Where does that put us in a month?
    It really depends on what would be considered the top of the peak. What we are seeing now are people that were infected from 4-14 days ago (or more). I expect it run up over the next few weeks and top out around then and then start to drop as social distancing measure, hand-washing measures, and quarantine measures start to be reflected in the population. Those lag appear to lag behind 2-3 weeks in all other countries that were hit first. I fully expect the US to hit 10,000 cases by months end.

  11. #291
    Senior Member Dawgology's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by hacker View Post
    Italy:

    February 20: 4 cases
    March 16: 27,980 cases

    What exactly is going to happen when we have around 30,000 people sick in this state?
    It's possible but unlikely. You are comparing an entire country and social system to a state. A country that houses several major cities and HUGE tourist attractions. A country with the HIGHEST number of inbound flights from China in the entire EU.

  12. #292
    Senior Member hacker's Avatar
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    Show me how it'll be different for us. Data would be nice.

    Maybe it'll be slightly slower in Mississippi because we're rural but it's way more likely to happen than not.

  13. #293
    Senior Member Dawgology's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by hacker View Post


    Show me how it'll be different for us. Data would be nice.

    Maybe it'll be slightly slower in Mississippi because we're rural but it's way more likely to happen than not.
    Again. You are comparing Country stats to State stats. You are comparing apples to oranges. Take a breath. Cases will go up. Wash your hands. Practice social distancing. Work from home if you can. Avoid large gatherings. That is very literally ALL that you can do right now. That's it. There is no magic bullet to stop this thing and there never will be. It has to run it's course. It will become endemic. Just do your part to help flatten the curve.

  14. #294
    Senior Member hacker's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dawgology View Post
    Again. You are comparing Country stats to State stats. You are comparing apples to oranges. Take a breath. Cases will go up. Wash your hands. Practice social distancing. Work from home if you can. Avoid large gatherings. That is very literally ALL that you can do right now. That's it. There is no magic bullet to stop this thing and there never will be. It has to run it's course. It will become endemic. Just do your part to help flatten the curve.
    I fully agree. I'm more presenting this argument for the people who are reading this thread and not convinced that this shit's real

  15. #295
    Senior Member Dawgology's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by hacker View Post
    I fully agree. I'm more presenting this argument for the people who are reading this thread and not convinced that this shit's real
    I see.

    One interesting note: the UK has not been enforcing any quarantine or canceling large gathering and have only been quarantining their elderly. It seems they have significantly slowed the rise in cases. With that said they are now starting a more aggresive approach like the rest fo the world.

  16. #296
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dawgology View Post
    It really depends on what would be considered the top of the peak. What we are seeing now are people that were infected from 4-14 days ago (or more). I expect it run up over the next few weeks and top out around then and then start to drop as social distancing measure, hand-washing measures, and quarantine measures start to be reflected in the population. Those lag appear to lag behind 2-3 weeks in all other countries that were hit first. I fully expect the US to hit 10,000 cases by months end.

    We'll be at 10K by the end of the week. We're adding 1K+ a day right now. And as testing becomes more accessible, we will only add more.

  17. #297
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    Quote Originally Posted by Johnson85 View Post
    Nobody is saying there wasn't good information out there. The point is that there is not an institution that has earned any credibility. That hurts when you're trying to manage a crisis.

    You are a flamethrower in a field of strawmen. The point is not that the media caused this. The point is that it is worse than it could be because we don't have trustworthy and credible media. A trustworthy and credible institution could have convinced a lot of people to take this seriously while also not panic buying 17ing toilet paper.



    So you're saying she intentionally misled with her tweet and media constantly does the same, and you wonder why people don't trust them? And she was far from the worst. Her's was just misleading while others actually lied and claimed the President said governors were on their own. https://twitter.com/MaraGay/status/1239603785275670529

    And look, I try not to call names (although I certainly give in to the temptation at times), but you don't understand the lesson of the Boy Who Cried Wolf, and you are calling other people dumbasses. First graders intuitively get the lesson of that story and you are sitting there going, "But the boy didn't lie the last time, why are those dumbass villagers ignoring good information?" Maybe you shouldn't be opining on other people's intelligence. It's one thing to go around being a dick when you are really smart. You should try not to do it before you can grasp things we teach to elementary students.

    Again, having credible institutions matters in a crisis. We would be in better shape if we had a credible media institution with widespread reach. Some people will have the time and inclination and ability to sift through the noise and get good information. Some people are honestly too stupid to help regardless (maybe those that don't understand children's lessons?). But a lot of people fall in between and would follow recommendations from a trusted source. They are probably following recommendations from sources they trust now, it's just probably somebody they know rather than a media source, and who knows whether that trust is wellplaced. I have seen people that are generally intelligent act in ways that I think are overreacting and underreacting, although I don't know anybody hoarding toiletpaper or that have gone into a full bunker mentality in places where there aren't confirmed cases. But having a trusted institution to give information to those people would be very helpful in a time like this. It could limit panic buying. It could limit the number of people making last hurrahs at bars. Wouldn't eliminate it, but especially on the panic side, a small number of people not buying into the panic could eliminate it as the idiots bought all the TP they could afford and people realized shelves were still stocked.
    You need to learn to discern underlying facts from opinion and editorializing. They are often co-mingled cause folks don't like reading dry data, but any researched article should at least providing link directly to their data/research that supports their opinion/conclusion. Rarely does the media outright lie about data, there might be some misleading use of data, but that's easy to spot with any level of critical thinking. People want an easy knee jerk reaction instead of stepping back and wondering if maybe the underlying data supports a position you previously hadn't considered or opposed, so it's "fake news". And I get it, we have busy lives, it's much easier to have a knee jerk reaction to a headline or a first paragraph than it is to read what's behind the article, but instead of forming a hard and fast opinion that it's fake news cause you don't like the headline, maybe make a point to look deeper into this particle issue later when you have time. Or if not then don't dig your heels into a stance and refuse to hear the facts that counter your position.

  18. #298
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    FYI

    I work for the 2nd biggest employer in the state of MS: Nissan Mfg in Canton. 5,000 to 6,000 people pass through this 1.6 Billion square foot building every day (employees and contractors) and we have ZERO cases of COVID-19.

    Our sister plant has had ONE individual who was put on quarantine because he (or it may have been a she, they didn't say) was around an infected person.

    That's 12,000 people in TN and MS, and only 1 person has been put on quarantine for POSSIBLY having been exposed to the virus.

    It may mushroom and become a greater problem here in the states in the coming weeks, but so far it's not the scourge that some are saying it will become.

  19. #299
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    The problem is our PEOPLE. I know several people who are STILL making light of this, making fun of people taking it seriously, and still going about life as if it's normal. These people are still going to restaurants, movies, stores, letting their kids play on the McDonald's playground, etc. These PEOPLE are the problem. I don't know what else our Local, State, and Federal Governments can do without declaring marshal law. People, in general, are stupid. Americans are also incredibly self-centered. THIS is why we can't turn the tide on this thing yet. By the time the stupid, selfish people get on board, it will already be a total disaster.

  20. #300
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    Quote Originally Posted by MaroonFlounder View Post
    FYI

    I work for the 2nd biggest employer in the state of MS: Nissan Mfg in Canton. 5,000 to 6,000 people pass through this 1.6 Billion square foot building every day (employees and contractors) and we have ZERO cases of COVID-19.

    Our sister plant has had ONE individual who was put on quarantine because he (or it may have been a she, they didn't say) was around an infected person.

    That's 12,000 people in TN and MS, and only 1 person has been put on quarantine for POSSIBLY having been exposed to the virus.

    It may mushroom and become a greater problem here in the states in the coming weeks, but so far it's not the scourge that some are saying it will become.
    ETA: I see they have not been confirmed, only exposed to someone themselves. So hopefully they did not catch it.

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