The Covid-19 Info thread (keep politics out please)

[msstate7]

I’ve appreciated the numbers you’ve been posting but this post lost me. Obviously the more we test the more we find. I also saw somewhere, don’t know where, today that something like 14% of the tested are positive. So we are testing more, we are finding more cases, it is spreading, but a lot of folks don’t have it.

That said, dr birx today talked about how either the numbers are way off or there are a ton of folks that have it that are asymptomatic.

This is the % of positives for all the tests performed thru that date:
March 4th: .136 positive
Match 8th: .152 positive
March 12th: .141 positive
Match 16th: .100 positive
Match 20th: .126 positive
March 23rd: .151 positive
March 24th: .151 positive
Match 25th: .152 positive
March 26th: .155 positive

https://covidtracking.com/us-daily/

[hacker]

I?ve appreciated the numbers you?ve been posting but this post lost me. Obviously the more we test the more we find. I also saw somewhere, don?t know where, today that something like 14% of the tested are positive. So we are testing more, we are finding more cases, it is spreading, but a lot of folks don?t have it.

That said, dr birx today talked about how either the numbers are way off or there are a ton of folks that have it that are asymptomatic.

So, my point was that the # of positives is indicative of the spread. It's not 100% indicative, but it's about the best we've got right now.

Today, we did around 100,000 tests. If we did 100,000 tests a few weeks ago, we wouldn't have found ~15k cases. If there were just as many cases already in the population back then, our hospitals would've also been full back then. But they weren't, we were barely hearing anything on that front.

So I don't think it's fair to just ignore the new case numbers and say "oh we're testing more people, of course we're gonna find more cases, it doesn't mean it's spreading"

I agree that it's not 100% accurate, but you can get a fairly clear picture from it IMO

[Extendedcab]

This is where I disagree with you... I think we are much higher than the reported cases, which makes the death rate plummet. The vast majority of cases aren't being documented bc they aren't serious imo

I agree, as I was one of the ones they would not test even though I exhibited most of the symptoms except for a fever over 101.5.

I was told by my doctor to assume I had the virus and take appropriate precautions and self quarantine.

[WeWonItAll(Most)]

Here's some charts I made attempting to compare # of cases relative to population using 8 days worth of the Worldometers data. Feel free to rip them apart. They obviously don't account for "how far along" in the disease process each country is.

First one is just trending the Total Cases/1m Pop
COVID_Total Cases_Pop.jpg

This one I just subtracted the previous day's Total Cases/1m Pop from the current day's number to try to chart the rates of rise
COVID_Change in Cases_Pop.jpg


I made it because I keep seeing this chart to show how our trajectory is so much worse than everyone else's (this one was posted on SPS yesterday)

My question is, isn't it obvious that our trajectory is going to be much steeper than all the other countries on the list when the chart is just reporting total # of cases? The population closest to ours that is reliable (China is questionable, India is a joke) is Japan, who is 3x smaller than us. All the European countries we are being compared to are more like 4-6x smaller than we are.

[msstate7]

Here's some charts I made attempting to compare # of cases relative to population using 8 days worth of the Worldometers data. Feel free to rip them apart. They obviously don't account for "how far along" in the disease process each country is.

First one is just trending the Total Cases/1m Pop
COVID_Total Cases_Pop.jpg

This one I just subtracted the previous day's Total Cases/1m Pop from the current day's number to try to chart the rates of rise
COVID_Change in Cases_Pop.jpg


I made it because I keep seeing this chart to show how our trajectory is so much worse than everyone else's (this one was posted on SPS yesterday)

My question is, isn't it obvious that our trajectory is going to be much steeper than all the other countries on the list when the chart is just reporting total # of cases? The population closest to ours that is reliable (China is questionable, India is a joke) is Japan, who is 3x smaller than us. All the European countries we are being compared to are more like 4-6x smaller than we are.

Good work. You'd also have to account for us out-testing everyone right now... more tests = more cases.

[hacker]

579 total cases in MS, 7 total deaths
94 new cases, 2 new deaths

3,139 "official" tests

DeSoto is getting hit hard, 63 total cases
104 cases in the metro area
Lauderdale from 0 to 10 in 2 days
First death in Rankin

[starkvegasdawg]

579 total cases in MS, 7 total deaths
94 new cases, 2 new deaths

3,139 "official" tests

DeSoto is getting hit hard, 63 total cases
104 cases in the metro area
Lauderdale from 0 to 10 in 2 days
First death in Rankin

That's now a mortality rate of 1.6% in MS which is slowly creeping up. Maybe not statistically significantly creeping up, but creeping up.

[msstate7]

579 total cases in MS, 7 total deaths
94 new cases, 2 new deaths

3,139 "official" tests

DeSoto is getting hit hard, 63 total cases
104 cases in the metro area
Lauderdale from 0 to 10 in 2 days
First death in Rankin

94 new cases out of 3139 tests?

[confucius say]

That's now a mortality rate of 1.6% in MS which is slowly creeping up. Maybe not statistically significantly creeping up, but creeping up.

1.6 is not the mortality rate. It is the rate of deaths among positive tests.

[BrunswickDawg]

94 new cases out of 3139 tests?

I think that is the total number of tests to date, not tests for yesterday

[msstate7]

I think that is the total number of tests to date, not tests for yesterday

Bummer. I was excited we had ramped up testing and low rate

[DownwardDawg]

I agree, as I was one of the ones they would not test even though I exhibited most of the symptoms except for a fever over 101.5.

I was told by my doctor to assume I had the virus and take appropriate precautions and self quarantine.

This is what happened with my wife and she is a nurse. She isolated and is fine now. No testing. We also think my 26 year old daughter had it. She exhibited all the signs and was very sick for a couple weeks. She even had the real red eyes that many patients are exhibiting. Neither were ever tested.

[Dawg2003]

That's now a mortality rate of 1.6% in MS which is slowly creeping up. Maybe not statistically significantly creeping up, but creeping up.

Something else to consider is that people are staying on ventilators for 2 and 3 weeks. So we won't have a good grasp on the mortality for awhile. I've seen that anywhere from 30-80% of people die after they are intubated, which is scary.

[WeWonItAll(Most)]

94 new cases out of 3139 tests?

I think that is the total number of tests to date, not tests for yesterday

From MSDH website:
"About our case counts: We currently update our map and statistics each morning with test results from the previous day. Outside laboratories also report positive test results to us, which are included our totals."

So the reported total number of tests for the state are only the MSDH tests + positive tests from outside commercial labs.

[Cooterpoot]

I can't believe we aren't all dead already. **

[msstate7]

US deaths per million: 4
Miss deaths per million: 2.3

We're still below national mark right now

[hacker]

36 deaths in Louisiana since yesterday
919 deaths in Italy since yesterday

[BB30]

So, do we have to line up in front of a two way TV and exercise? I think I've seen that somewhere before.

Yes, If you can't afford your own health insurance and expect others to cover it. I think that is the least someone could do if they aren't paying in on health insurance and I am not sure why that would be wrong? Now if you're paying your taxes due then I have no problems with you eating whatever you want and exercising however you see fit as you're paying your part of the bill.

The thought that someone should be able to stay as unhealthy as possible while getting free healthcare paid for by others isn't right. They should at the very least attempt to avoid things that would put them at a higher risk of ending up in the hospital or at a doctors office.

[msstate7]

36 deaths in Louisiana since yesterday
919 deaths in Italy since yesterday

LA death per million: 17.7
Wow

[hacker]