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Thread: The Covid-19 Info thread (keep politics out please)

  1. #1281
    Senior Member msstate7's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by shoeless joe View Post
    I’ve appreciated the numbers you’ve been posting but this post lost me. Obviously the more we test the more we find. I also saw somewhere, don’t know where, today that something like 14% of the tested are positive. So we are testing more, we are finding more cases, it is spreading, but a lot of folks don’t have it.

    That said, dr birx today talked about how either the numbers are way off or there are a ton of folks that have it that are asymptomatic.
    This is the % of positives for all the tests performed thru that date:
    March 4th: .136 positive
    Match 8th: .152 positive
    March 12th: .141 positive
    Match 16th: .100 positive
    Match 20th: .126 positive
    March 23rd: .151 positive
    March 24th: .151 positive
    Match 25th: .152 positive
    March 26th: .155 positive

    https://covidtracking.com/us-daily/

  2. #1282
    Senior Member hacker's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by shoeless joe View Post
    I?ve appreciated the numbers you?ve been posting but this post lost me. Obviously the more we test the more we find. I also saw somewhere, don?t know where, today that something like 14% of the tested are positive. So we are testing more, we are finding more cases, it is spreading, but a lot of folks don?t have it.

    That said, dr birx today talked about how either the numbers are way off or there are a ton of folks that have it that are asymptomatic.
    So, my point was that the # of positives is indicative of the spread. It's not 100% indicative, but it's about the best we've got right now.

    Today, we did around 100,000 tests. If we did 100,000 tests a few weeks ago, we wouldn't have found ~15k cases. If there were just as many cases already in the population back then, our hospitals would've also been full back then. But they weren't, we were barely hearing anything on that front.

    So I don't think it's fair to just ignore the new case numbers and say "oh we're testing more people, of course we're gonna find more cases, it doesn't mean it's spreading"

    I agree that it's not 100% accurate, but you can get a fairly clear picture from it IMO

  3. #1283
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    Quote Originally Posted by msstate7 View Post
    This is where I disagree with you... I think we are much higher than the reported cases, which makes the death rate plummet. The vast majority of cases aren't being documented bc they aren't serious imo

    I agree, as I was one of the ones they would not test even though I exhibited most of the symptoms except for a fever over 101.5.

    I was told by my doctor to assume I had the virus and take appropriate precautions and self quarantine.
    Last edited by Extendedcab; 03-27-2020 at 08:54 AM.

  4. #1284
    Senior Member WeWonItAll(Most)'s Avatar
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    Here's some charts I made attempting to compare # of cases relative to population using 8 days worth of the Worldometers data. Feel free to rip them apart. They obviously don't account for "how far along" in the disease process each country is.

    First one is just trending the Total Cases/1m Pop
    COVID_Total Cases_Pop.jpg

    This one I just subtracted the previous day's Total Cases/1m Pop from the current day's number to try to chart the rates of rise
    COVID_Change in Cases_Pop.jpg


    I made it because I keep seeing this chart to show how our trajectory is so much worse than everyone else's (this one was posted on SPS yesterday)

    My question is, isn't it obvious that our trajectory is going to be much steeper than all the other countries on the list when the chart is just reporting total # of cases? The population closest to ours that is reliable (China is questionable, India is a joke) is Japan, who is 3x smaller than us. All the European countries we are being compared to are more like 4-6x smaller than we are.
    Far Moorhead yaw

  5. #1285
    Senior Member msstate7's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by WeWonItAll(Most) View Post
    Here's some charts I made attempting to compare # of cases relative to population using 8 days worth of the Worldometers data. Feel free to rip them apart. They obviously don't account for "how far along" in the disease process each country is.

    First one is just trending the Total Cases/1m Pop
    COVID_Total Cases_Pop.jpg

    This one I just subtracted the previous day's Total Cases/1m Pop from the current day's number to try to chart the rates of rise
    COVID_Change in Cases_Pop.jpg


    I made it because I keep seeing this chart to show how our trajectory is so much worse than everyone else's (this one was posted on SPS yesterday)

    My question is, isn't it obvious that our trajectory is going to be much steeper than all the other countries on the list when the chart is just reporting total # of cases? The population closest to ours that is reliable (China is questionable, India is a joke) is Japan, who is 3x smaller than us. All the European countries we are being compared to are more like 4-6x smaller than we are.
    Good work. You'd also have to account for us out-testing everyone right now... more tests = more cases.

  6. #1286
    Senior Member hacker's Avatar
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    579 total cases in MS, 7 total deaths
    94 new cases, 2 new deaths

    3,139 "official" tests

    DeSoto is getting hit hard, 63 total cases
    104 cases in the metro area
    Lauderdale from 0 to 10 in 2 days
    First death in Rankin

  7. #1287
    Senior Member starkvegasdawg's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by hacker View Post
    579 total cases in MS, 7 total deaths
    94 new cases, 2 new deaths

    3,139 "official" tests

    DeSoto is getting hit hard, 63 total cases
    104 cases in the metro area
    Lauderdale from 0 to 10 in 2 days
    First death in Rankin
    That's now a mortality rate of 1.6% in MS which is slowly creeping up. Maybe not statistically significantly creeping up, but creeping up.

  8. #1288
    Senior Member msstate7's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by hacker View Post
    579 total cases in MS, 7 total deaths
    94 new cases, 2 new deaths

    3,139 "official" tests

    DeSoto is getting hit hard, 63 total cases
    104 cases in the metro area
    Lauderdale from 0 to 10 in 2 days
    First death in Rankin
    94 new cases out of 3139 tests?

  9. #1289
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    Quote Originally Posted by starkvegasdawg View Post
    That's now a mortality rate of 1.6% in MS which is slowly creeping up. Maybe not statistically significantly creeping up, but creeping up.
    1.6 is not the mortality rate. It is the rate of deaths among positive tests.

  10. #1290
    Senior Member BrunswickDawg's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by msstate7 View Post
    94 new cases out of 3139 tests?
    I think that is the total number of tests to date, not tests for yesterday
    "After dealing with Ole Miss for over a year," he said, "I've learned to expect their leadership to do and say things that the leadership at other Division I schools would never consider doing and to justify their actions by reminding themselves that "We're Ole Miss.""
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  11. #1291
    Senior Member msstate7's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by BrunswickDawg View Post
    I think that is the total number of tests to date, not tests for yesterday
    Bummer. I was excited we had ramped up testing and low rate

  12. #1292
    Senior Member DownwardDawg's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Extendedcab View Post
    I agree, as I was one of the ones they would not test even though I exhibited most of the symptoms except for a fever over 101.5.

    I was told by my doctor to assume I had the virus and take appropriate precautions and self quarantine.
    This is what happened with my wife and she is a nurse. She isolated and is fine now. No testing. We also think my 26 year old daughter had it. She exhibited all the signs and was very sick for a couple weeks. She even had the real red eyes that many patients are exhibiting. Neither were ever tested.
    We are told NOT to judge ALL Muslims by the actions of a few lunatics."
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  13. #1293
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    Quote Originally Posted by starkvegasdawg View Post
    That's now a mortality rate of 1.6% in MS which is slowly creeping up. Maybe not statistically significantly creeping up, but creeping up.
    Something else to consider is that people are staying on ventilators for 2 and 3 weeks. So we won't have a good grasp on the mortality for awhile. I've seen that anywhere from 30-80% of people die after they are intubated, which is scary.

  14. #1294
    Senior Member WeWonItAll(Most)'s Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by msstate7 View Post
    94 new cases out of 3139 tests?
    Quote Originally Posted by BrunswickDawg View Post
    I think that is the total number of tests to date, not tests for yesterday
    From MSDH website:
    "About our case counts: We currently update our map and statistics each morning with test results from the previous day. Outside laboratories also report positive test results to us, which are included our totals."

    So the reported total number of tests for the state are only the MSDH tests + positive tests from outside commercial labs.
    Far Moorhead yaw

  15. #1295
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    I can't believe we aren't all dead already. **

  16. #1296
    Senior Member msstate7's Avatar
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    US deaths per million: 4
    Miss deaths per million: 2.3

    We're still below national mark right now
    Last edited by msstate7; 03-27-2020 at 11:55 AM.

  17. #1297
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    36 deaths in Louisiana since yesterday
    919 deaths in Italy since yesterday
    Last edited by hacker; 03-27-2020 at 12:18 PM.

  18. #1298
    Senior Member BB30's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Liverpooldawg View Post
    So, do we have to line up in front of a two way TV and exercise? I think I've seen that somewhere before.
    Yes, If you can't afford your own health insurance and expect others to cover it. I think that is the least someone could do if they aren't paying in on health insurance and I am not sure why that would be wrong? Now if you're paying your taxes due then I have no problems with you eating whatever you want and exercising however you see fit as you're paying your part of the bill.

    The thought that someone should be able to stay as unhealthy as possible while getting free healthcare paid for by others isn't right. They should at the very least attempt to avoid things that would put them at a higher risk of ending up in the hospital or at a doctors office.

  19. #1299
    Senior Member msstate7's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by hacker View Post
    36 deaths in Louisiana since yesterday
    919 deaths in Italy since yesterday
    LA death per million: 17.7
    Wow

  20. #1300
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