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Thread: The Covid-19 Info thread (keep politics out please)

  1. #1241
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    Quote Originally Posted by Commercecomet24 View Post
    So not BS unless he's lying to parliament.
    https://twitter.com/ethanjweiss/stat...75950978039808

    For some reason I can't embed this tweet and graph.
    Last edited by HancockCountyDog; 03-26-2020 at 04:28 PM.

  2. #1242
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    Quote Originally Posted by Commercecomet24 View Post
    So not BS unless he's lying to parliament.
    Yes! The UK recently went on full lockdown, so he's speaking in context of that.

    The article claims he changed his stance when in fact, he did not. His model has always had the "unmitigated" scenario and the "suppression" scenario. It just happens that the UK recently decided to go with the "suppression" strategy so now he believes they have a chance.

    The article leads you to believe that he suddenly had some realization that things aren't as bad as they seem. Not true. The numbers in the model are basically the same as they were a couple weeks ago. (They are slightly lower, like the 2.2 mil -> 2.18 mil I posted above)

  3. #1243
    Senior Member msstate7's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by HancockCountyDog View Post
    Here is great graph - The projections seem the same. We can keep it to under 100K deaths in North America with severe suppression techniques. Moderate suppression still has it killing 520K in North America.

    520,000 in North America? We're at 1142 in us, canada, and Mexico right now. You think it's gonna get 455x worse?

  4. #1244
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    Quote Originally Posted by msstate7 View Post
    520,000 in North America? We're at 1142 in us, canada, and Mexico right now. You think it's gonna get 455x worse?
    On March 6 we had 233 cases.

    20 days later we have 81,578 cases. The most in the world.

    So things have gotten 350 times worse in twenty days.

    Sure - its not 455 times worse. But still a lot worse. Where will we be in another 20 days. If thins are only 20 times worse in 20 days - we will 1.6 million cases by April 15th.

  5. #1245
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    Quote Originally Posted by msstate7 View Post
    520,000 in North America? We're at 1142 in us, canada, and Mexico right now. You think it's gonna get 455x worse?
    That less than a quarter of 1% of the population. What besides "your gut" leads you to believe that isn't possible?

  6. #1246
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    Quote Originally Posted by deadheaddawg View Post
    That less than a quarter of 1% of the population. What besides "your gut" leads you to believe that isn't possible?
    Spain is the worst death rate in the world. They are currently sitting at 136 deaths per million (.000136). To get to your total, we'd have be 18 times worse. Currently, we (just us) are 45.3x better than them
    Last edited by msstate7; 03-26-2020 at 04:49 PM.

  7. #1247
    Senior Member Commercecomet24's Avatar
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    Once again this is not gonna be as bad as some believe and will be worse than others believe. Pray that it's best case scenario.

  8. #1248
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    Quote Originally Posted by msstate7 View Post
    Spain is the worst death rate in the world. They are currently sitting at 136 deaths per million (.000136). To get to your total, we'd have be 18 times worse. Currently, we (just us) are 45.3x better than them
    The death rate that is relevant is death rate of people affected. Italy is now over 10% death rate for those tested positive. Most experts predicted that as their hospitals were overwhelmed. Spain's death rate is around 6%.

    Our death rate is around 1.5% which is good, but we have not hit the cross over point where the lack of health care affects the death rate except in places like in New York where people are not getting the care you need to survive.

    Look - hopefully we are all doing part and the numbers simply flatten out so that we can keep that death rate, but without a cure and how easy this spreads and the number of people still not staying home and doing their part - if the growth rate continues at 23-28% which where it has been for a while - then this keeps doubling every 3 days. Lets hope it really flattens out over the next week, but so far every model showing this virus spreading and doubling has been for the most part too damn accurate.

    I mean we are at 81,000+ cases. We had 200+ twenty days ago. At some point people may have to utter those three little words on a sports message board that no one wants to type.

    I was wrong.

  9. #1249
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    Quote Originally Posted by msstate7 View Post
    Spain is the worst death rate in the world. They are currently sitting at 136 deaths per million (.000136). To get to your total, we'd have be 18 times worse. Currently, we (just us) are 45.3x better than them
    Per this tweet - Italy's numbers are worse

    https://twitter.com/williamreggler/s...58088859127808

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    I've been hopeful that the rural nature of our state would shield us from the worst of it, but the numbers are troubling. Add that to the fact that we have such an unhealthy population anyway and the majority are overweight. I worry about it. We're a poor state with few resources. We have a lot of rural hospitals that simply can't handle this.

  11. #1251
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    Quote Originally Posted by HancockCountyDog View Post
    The death rate that is relevant is death rate of people affected. Italy is now over 10% death rate for those tested positive. Most experts predicted that as their hospitals were overwhelmed. Spain's death rate is around 6%.

    Our death rate is around 1.5% which is good, but we have not hit the cross over point where the lack of health care affects the death rate except in places like in New York where people are not getting the care you need to survive.

    Look - hopefully we are all doing part and the numbers simply flatten out so that we can keep that death rate, but without a cure and how easy this spreads and the number of people still not staying home and doing their part - if the growth rate continues at 23-28% which where it has been for a while - then this keeps doubling every 3 days. Lets hope it really flattens out over the next week, but so far every model showing this virus spreading and doubling has been for the most part too damn accurate.

    I mean we are at 81,000+ cases. We had 200+ twenty days ago. At some point people may have to utter those three little words on a sports message board that no one wants to type.

    I was wrong.
    This is where I disagree with you... I think we are much higher than the reported cases, which makes the death rate plummet. The vast majority of cases aren't being documented bc they aren't serious imo

  12. #1252
    Senior Member msstate7's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by HancockCountyDog View Post
    Per this tweet - Italy's numbers are worse

    https://twitter.com/williamreggler/s...58088859127808
    That says Italy has 124 deaths per million which is lower than my number.

  13. #1253
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    Quote Originally Posted by msstate7 View Post
    This is where I disagree with you... I think we are much higher than the reported cases, which makes the death rate plummet. The vast majority of cases aren't being documented bc they aren't serious imo
    Wouldn't that also be applicable to other countries?

    So lets assume the death rate is significantly less than the 1-2% most people are predicting - wouldn't that be based on positive Covid cases. So if 1 million people have the Covid confirmed and only 100K die providing a 1% death rate of confirmed covid cases which is less than most countries; Yet in reality 5 million have the Covid and still 100K die, where is the upside? I guess I'm missing that point.

  14. #1254
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    Quote Originally Posted by HancockCountyDog View Post
    Wouldn't that also be applicable to other countries?

    So lets assume the death rate is significantly less than the 1-2% most people are predicting - wouldn't that be based on positive Covid cases. So if 1 million people have the Covid confirmed and only 100K die providing a 1% death rate of confirmed covid cases which is less than most countries; Yet in reality 5 million have the Covid and still 100K die, where is the upside? I guess I'm missing that point.
    You were using Spain's 10% and our 1.5% which are based on reported cases. Since we (imo) don't know the actual number of cases, I think death rate per million is the best comparison between counties

  15. #1255
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    Quote Originally Posted by msstate7 View Post
    This is where I disagree with you... I think we are much higher than the reported cases, which makes the death rate plummet. The vast majority of cases aren't being documented bc they aren't serious imo
    US:

    March 21: 46 deaths
    March 22: 113 deaths
    March 23: 141 deaths
    March 24: 225 deaths
    March 25: 247 deaths

    This will continue going up. 300, 400, 500 a day. When will it end? Well, our new cases are continuing to grow as well.

    March 21: 4825 new cases
    March 22: 9400 new cases
    March 23: 10189 new cases
    March 24: 11075 new cases
    March 25: 13355 new cases

    It usually takes 2-4 weeks for someone to die from this virus. Our deaths per day will continue growing as long as our new cases do.

    Remember, we're still about 12 days behind Italy and 8 days behind Spain.

  16. #1256
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    Quote Originally Posted by msstate7 View Post
    You were using Spain's 10% and our 1.5% which are based on reported cases. Since we (imo) don't know the actual number of cases, I think death rate per million is the best comparison between counties
    It would seem to me that the stat that would be most relevant is confirmed Covid cases. As that grows - so does the death rate. We have to keep that number from doubling every 3 days, because that would seem to be the best predictor of people that will potentially die.

    If that number continues to grow - as it has over the last 20 days - then the numbers will most likely continue to be accurate. I sure hope they stop doubling at the rate they are, but I just don't see the level of suppression they keep talking about being adhered to, and for many areas - it is too late based on the incubation period.

  17. #1257
    Senior Member msstate7's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by hacker View Post
    US:

    March 21: 46 deaths
    March 22: 113 deaths
    March 23: 141 deaths
    March 24: 225 deaths
    March 25: 247 deaths

    This will continue going up. 300, 400, 500 a day. When will it end? Well, our new cases are continuing to grow as well.

    March 21: 4825 new cases
    March 22: 9400 new cases
    March 23: 10189 new cases
    March 24: 11075 new cases
    March 25: 13355 new cases

    It usually takes 2-4 weeks for someone to die from this virus. Our deaths per day will continue growing as long as our new cases do.

    Remember, we're still about 12 days behind Italy and 8 days behind Spain.
    What were the dates of the first confirmed cases in those counties? I see us on January 21, Italy on January 30, and Spain on Feb 1. Are those dates incorrect?

  18. #1258
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    Originally Posted by dantheman4248
    I'd bet you all your VCash that the US has 30,000 confirmed cases by the start of Summer. We didn't do enough to contain it initially and it will slowly spread out. Bad take.

    Quote Originally Posted by Doggie_Style View Post
    Your on!

    Empty out that Vcash

  19. #1259
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    Quote Originally Posted by hacker View Post
    US:

    March 21: 46 deaths
    March 22: 113 deaths
    March 23: 141 deaths
    March 24: 225 deaths
    March 25: 247 deaths

    This will continue going up. 300, 400, 500 a day. When will it end? Well, our new cases are continuing to grow as well.

    March 21: 4825 new cases
    March 22: 9400 new cases
    March 23: 10189 new cases
    March 24: 11075 new cases
    March 25: 13355 new cases

    It usually takes 2-4 weeks for someone to die from this virus. Our deaths per day will continue growing as long as our new cases do.

    Remember, we're still about 12 days behind Italy and 8 days behind Spain.
    How many deaths you think the U.S. will have?

  20. #1260
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    Quote Originally Posted by msstate7 View Post
    What were the dates of the first confirmed cases in those counties? I see us on January 21, Italy on January 30, and Spain on Feb 1. Are those dates incorrect?
    Not sure about first reported cases, but

    Italy on 2/23 - had 155 cases
    USA on 3/5 - had 159 cases

    Roughly 10 days behind them originally.

    Italy on 3/14 - had 21157 cases
    USA on 3/14 - had 2836 cases

    Today

    Italy has 80539 cases
    USA has 81285 cases

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