Page 245 of 274 FirstFirst ... 145195235243244245246247255 ... LastLast
Results 4,881 to 4,900 of 5471

Thread: The Covid-19 Info thread (keep politics out please)

  1. #4881
    Senior Member Dawgology's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2013
    Posts
    6,270
    vCash
    52525
    Quote Originally Posted by Dolphus Raymond View Post
    Msstate7, I am afraid we have crossed the Rubicon and only Draconian measures will alter the trajectory in the near to mid term. Mississippi, as well as other states, is in an extremely precarious situation. I pray I am wrong.
    Or...we can cinch up the old nutsack, wear a mask, wash your hands, and get back to work.

  2. #4882
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Apr 2013
    Location
    Cypress, TX
    Posts
    6,253
    vCash
    333074958
    Quote Originally Posted by confucius say View Post
    We are about a month or little less away from herd immunity starting to set in, at which point things will get better. Just have to wait it out.
    I need the math on that...

    If we assume the high end numbers of asymtomatic untested people that have had Covid at 10x the positives, that's ~43 million people.

    If we assume the lowest end of people needed for Herd Immunity of 40%.

    There are ~330 million people in the US.

    We need ~132 million infected.

    That's 3x the number of people infected now.....

    That's 3 million new cases a day....

    And those are the best case numbers....

    If it's 2x infected per positive cases and 80% for Herd Immunity, we'd need 30 times the number infected right now....

  3. #4883
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Oct 2015
    Posts
    1,126
    vCash
    3100
    Cinch up the rucksack, put one foot in front of the other and drive on.
    At this point, such an approach may be our only realistic option. Like they say, it?s too late to close the gate because the dogs already out of the pen.

  4. #4884
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Jan 2020
    Location
    DFW Area
    Posts
    574
    vCash
    3000
    Quote Originally Posted by Dawgology View Post
    The economy isn't getting wrecked. In June non-farm payrolls grew by 4.8 million, unemployment fell to a "crisis" low 11.1%, and temp-layoff numbers fell 4.8 million. Largest single month gain in the HISTORY of America. I have a suspicion that July will probably double those numbers.

    It's scary out there but America is saying "**** it" and getting back to work. It may be foolhardy and lead to more deaths but that is what's happening.
    Actually, the economy is getting wrecked. Recent data is indicating the recovery is stalling, and I imagine the Fed will say as much tomorrow. And if the Fed is admitting it, that mean's it's even worse. Hopefully with the recent downturn in Covid infections in the hot zone states, the recovery can pick back up, but until people start flying and traveling again, it's going to be a long tough slog. And we still haven't seen the worst from the banks and commercial real estate fallout.
    There's someone in my head but its not me.

  5. #4885
    Senior Member msstate7's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2013
    Posts
    72,078
    vCash
    10439
    Quote Originally Posted by SheltonChoked View Post
    I need the math on that...

    If we assume the high end numbers of asymtomatic untested people that have had Covid at 10x the positives, that's ~43 million people.

    If we assume the lowest end of people needed for Herd Immunity of 40%.

    There are ~330 million people in the US.

    We need ~132 million infected.

    That's 3x the number of people infected now.....

    That's 3 million new cases a day....

    And those are the best case numbers....

    If it's 2x infected per positive cases and 80% for Herd Immunity, we'd need 30 times the number infected right now....
    This guy says maybe at 20%

    https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.the...rticle/614035/

  6. #4886
    Senior Member Cooterpoot's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2016
    Posts
    11,578
    vCash
    52714
    Anyone thinking herd immunity is a possibility in the near future is simply wrong. Herd immunity is being used as an excuse for our inability to handle this shit.

  7. #4887
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Aug 2014
    Posts
    10,866
    vCash
    3100
    Quote Originally Posted by SheltonChoked View Post
    I need the math on that...

    If we assume the high end numbers of asymtomatic untested people that have had Covid at 10x the positives, that's ~43 million people.

    If we assume the lowest end of people needed for Herd Immunity of 40%.

    There are ~330 million people in the US.

    We need ~132 million infected.

    That's 3x the number of people infected now.....

    That's 3 million new cases a day....

    And those are the best case numbers....

    If it's 2x infected per positive cases and 80% for Herd Immunity, we'd need 30 times the number infected right now....
    I meant MS alone, but the same can apply to America.
    The cdc last week said best estimate of actual case count is somewhere between 6 and 24 times the confirmed test count. But I'm fine with going with the x10 factor. MS is at 56k, x10 puts that at 560k.

    The below article cites studies that saw herd immunity for covid setting in at 20%. That is the case in places like NY and NJ that reached 20%. Florida's daily case count has been falling since July 17, and it just yesterday got to 20% using the x10 factor. I suspect its case average will keep falling. Alabama 7 day case count has been falling for 11 days and it is approaching 20% in the next few weeks.

    Even at 25%, or 750k, we should be there in less than a month using the x10 factor (meaning 75k confirmed cases). We'll see.

    https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theatlantic.com/amp/article/614035/

  8. #4888
    Senior Member Prediction? Pain.'s Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2015
    Posts
    720
    vCash
    3100
    Quote Originally Posted by msstate7 View Post
    Interesting read. Thanks for the link.

    But my takeaway is that nobody knows and that the popular notion of "natural herd immunity" seems to be missing the mark. A couple of the people quoted in that article who give numeric "herd immunity" estimates are mathematicians. One of those mathematicians (who studies chaos theory in Scotland) thinks it could be as low as 20%, but even then she admits that her calculations seem optimistic. Another mathematician, this time from Stockholm, thinks 20% is unlikely but that ~40% could be possible. The article next says that an epidemiologist at Harvard says that he thinks the range is anywhere from 20% to 60%, but that the lower end of that is more unlikely than the higher end. And finally, the article quotes a couple of other people -- biologists who study epidemiology and infectious disease modelling -- who cast doubt on the current lip service being played to "natural herd immunity" in popular discourse:

    What's important to [one scientist], rather, is that people are not misled by the idea of herd immunity. In the context of vaccination, herd-immunity thresholds are relatively fixed and predictable. In the context of an ongoing pandemic, thinking of this threshold as some static concept can be dangerously misleading.

    "During the last few months, we've started talking about 'natural herd immunity' and what would be used to block future waves," says Shweta Bansal, an associate professor [of biology] at Georgetown University who studies how social interactions influence infectious diseases. She worries that many people conflate academic projections about reaching herd immunity with a "let it run wild" fatalism. "My view is that trying to take that route would lead to mass death and devastation," she says.

    Indeed, letting a new, rapidly spreading virus run unchecked in a population with zero immunity could mean that nearly everyone in a given location gets infected. With vaccination, the herd-immunity threshold is vital to guiding policy and medical practice: If about 90 percent of people are vaccinated against measles, for example, then, accounting for waning antibodies and variable immune responses, it's safe to assume that 60 or 70 percent are protected and the population isn't at risk of an outbreak. But that concept doesn't clearly apply when a highly contagious virus hits a population with zero immunity. Left totally unchecked, Bansal says, the percentage of infected people could go even higher than 70 percent.

    By definition, dynamic systems don't deal in static numbers. Any such herd-immunity threshold is context-dependent and constantly shifting. It will change over time and space. It varies depending on the basic reproduction number -- the average number of new infections caused by an infected individual. During the early stage of an outbreak of a new virus (to which no one has immunity), that number will be higher. The number is skewed by super-spreading events, such as when one person in a choir infects 50 others. And the number in a dense city such as New York should be expected to be higher than that in rural Alaska. "Within certain populations that lack heterogeneity, like within a nursing home or school, you may even see the herd-immunity threshold be above 70 percent," Bansal says. If a population average led people in those settings to get complacent, there could be needless death.
    Last edited by Prediction? Pain.; 07-29-2020 at 03:52 PM.

  9. #4889
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Aug 2014
    Posts
    10,866
    vCash
    3100
    Quote Originally Posted by Prediction? Pain. View Post
    Interesting read. Thanks for the link. But my takeaway is that nobody knows. A couple of the people quoted in that article who give numeric "herd immunity" estimates are mathematicians. One of those mathematicians (who studies chaos theory in Scotland) thinks it could be as low as 20%, but even then she admits that her calculations seem optimistic. Another mathematician, this time from Stockholm, thinks 20% is unlikely but that ~40% could be possible. The article next says that an epidemiologist at Harvard says that he thinks the range is anywhere from 20% to 60%, but that the lower end of that is more unlikely than the higher end. And finally, the article quotes a couple of other people -- biologists who study epidemiology and infectious disease modelling -- who cast doubt on the current lip service being played to "natural herd immunity" in popular discourse:
    "We just keep running the models, and it keeps coming back at less than 20%. It's very striking."
    Hopefully she is right.

  10. #4890
    Senior Member Prediction? Pain.'s Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2015
    Posts
    720
    vCash
    3100
    Quote Originally Posted by confucius say View Post
    "We just keep running the models, and it keeps coming back at less than 20%. It's very striking."
    Hopefully she is right.
    I hope she's right, too. Her calculations are the most optimistic ones among those that they interviewed in the article, though. The other mathematician and the epidemiologist thought otherwise. And I'd be interested to know her take on the two other scientists who cast doubt upon the concept of conflating vaccine-based herd immunity theory with projections during a pandemic where most people don't start out as immune.

    But again, yeah, I'm all for kicking this crap sooner than later.

    Random aside since the optimistic lady was Scottish: It was National Scotch Day on Monday. I celebrated with some Compass Box. Solid holiday.

  11. #4891
    Senior Member Dawgology's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2013
    Posts
    6,270
    vCash
    52525
    Quote Originally Posted by Dolphus Raymond View Post
    Cinch up the rucksack, put one foot in front of the other and drive on.
    At this point, such an approach may be our only realistic option. Like they say, it?s too late to close the gate because the dogs already out of the pen.
    Ha! I just realized autocorrect changed rucksack to nutsack on my post. Jeezus...what’s wrong with me.. lmao!

  12. #4892
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Jun 2018
    Posts
    1,590
    vCash
    3100
    Quote Originally Posted by dawgday166 View Post
    You got video of her saying those things. Or you listening to the Ministry of Truth from 1984 (CNN, MSNBC, etc.)?

    If you got video, then I'll stand corrected. Sure ain't gonna listen to Mr. ex-CIA Anderson Cooper.

    ETA: And there are at least as many or more official studies now that I would trust more that says it does work if prescribed early.
    The videos are on her Facebook page, and she doubled down on it in a Tweet today.

  13. #4893
    Senior Member BeardoMSU's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2014
    Location
    The gettin' place
    Posts
    18,677
    vCash
    53100
    Quote Originally Posted by Dawg2003 View Post
    The videos are on her Facebook page, and she doubled down on it in a Tweet today.
    And this is the person being platformed by POTUS and his minions, and defended here. Tarantino couldn't write a script this good. It's like we're literally living in Idiocracy.




  14. #4894
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Oct 2019
    Posts
    553
    vCash
    3000
    Quote Originally Posted by BeardoMSU View Post
    And this is the person being platformed by POTUS and his minions, and defended here. Tarantino couldn't write a script this good. It's like we're literally living in Idiocracy.



    Is it just me or does she resemble Esther Rolle from Good Times? Speaking of Incubus, are they still touring?

  15. #4895
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Jan 2018
    Posts
    6,003
    vCash
    55927
    Quote Originally Posted by Dolphus Raymond View Post
    1505 new cases today. We need to do something different. What should we do differently? I have no idea, but what we are doing now is obviously not working.
    It's rather simple. Quit requiring mandatory testing for everything.

  16. #4896
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Oct 2015
    Posts
    1,126
    vCash
    3100
    I guess if we quit testing it will just disappear, like magic?

  17. #4897
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Feb 2016
    Location
    Madison, Alabama
    Posts
    15,694
    vCash
    1886332
    Locally (Madison County, Alabama) has seen a sharp, 65% or so, decrease in Covid cases after three weeks of mandatory masking. Masks work.

  18. #4898
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Feb 2016
    Location
    Madison, Alabama
    Posts
    15,694
    vCash
    1886332
    Quote Originally Posted by Dolphus Raymond View Post
    I guess if we quit testing it will just disappear, like magic?
    Yeah, that would do the trick.

  19. #4899
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Feb 2016
    Location
    Madison, Alabama
    Posts
    15,694
    vCash
    1886332
    Quote Originally Posted by BeardoMSU View Post
    And this is the person being platformed by POTUS and his minions, and defended here. Tarantino couldn't write a script this good. It's like we're literally living in Idiocracy.
    Yeah, this one is beyond belief. I can perhaps see him supporting her at first (but should vet everybody) but not defend her after her qualifications came out.

  20. #4900
    Senior Member starkvegasdawg's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2013
    Location
    Eye of the Storm
    Posts
    22,748
    vCash
    3275
    Ohio has just banned use of hydroxychloroquine for corona.

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  
Disclaimer: Elitedawgs is a privately owned and operated forum that is managed by alumni of Mississippi State University. This website is in no way affiliated with the Mississippi State University, The Southeastern Conference (SEC) or the National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA). The views and opinions expressed herein are strictly those of the post author and may not reflect the views of other members of this forum or elitedawgs.com. The interactive nature of the elitedawgs.com forums makes it impossible for elitedawgs.com to assume responsibility for any of the content posted at this site. Ideas, thoughts, suggestion, comments, opinions, advice and observations made by participants at elitedawgs.com are not endorsed by elitedawgs.com
Elitedawgs: A Mississippi State Fan Forum, Mississippi State Football, Mississippi State Basketball, Mississippi State Baseball, Mississippi State Athletics. Mississippi State message board.