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Originally Posted by
StateDawg44
Speculation - the forming of a theory or conjecture without firm evidence.
Yes TRENDS can be derived and predicted but they are still not always true. That number is certainly attainable. I don?t disagree but to act like it?s a guarantee and there is firm evidence to use this early is actually... speculating.
They may NOT be pure facts either. You are speculating just like I?m speculating. See how that works. But I damn sum at not claiming shit that can?t be proven right this second.
It?s a guess. There are too many variables for some of the numbers to not be off.
Firm evidence. My evidence is previous countries responses to the outbreak, how the virus spread there. Our severely underwhelming response. How the virus has now spread to several hotspots. New York is up to 10k cases and we can only test 35k a week. There's like 20 million in that metro area... safe to say there's plenty of room left to grow.
Everything we're basing the numbers on are facts. The only way we aren't at 100k positive by the end of the month is if our testing abilities don't drastically increase.
Your last statement is you trying to be smart but failing to understand how statistics work. Yes, there are a lot of variables in play, that much is true. But we didn't say exactly 100k cases. We said more than 100k. And all those variables at play (except one) point to us easily clearing that mark. The one that doesn't is the one I made mention in my first post at you. That our lack of testing would not reveal properly.
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