Baseball Lineup for MSU

[Todd4State]

The pitching is a huge question mark and the key to whether we go to Omaha or not. There is some talent there to work with- it's more a question of if those guys become effective for us next year or not. The bullpen has even more question marks. It's a group that's pretty unproven or returns guys that have been injured or just not all that effective. The good news is the offense should be really good- but I'm not sure yet if they can overcome the pitching to make it to Omaha again. Our schedule is decent enough though. For us to win a National Title we're going to have to find a way to synch up our pitching and hitting at the same time- like last year almost. I also think that we won't win a National Title until they start using Robo-umpires after what happened to us against Louisville in Omaha.

Ace- Ginn. We're going to start him slow and that may cost us a game or two early in the year when teams work him out by the fifth inning or so. I think he'll be up to speed by SEC play but we're going to be really cautious with him. Him having success could be the key in MSU starting to land Vandy type pitching talent and the staff knows it.

Sat- Christian MacLeoud. I think he's going to have a solid year for us and not having him last year was a huge blow that may have cost us a National Title. He doesn't have Ginn or Cerentola's ceiling but he's probably a top five round pick when he is draft eligible and develops some. The talent is there but the experience isn't yet.

Sun. Cerentola. At the regionals last year some Central Michigan fan sitting near me goes "I can't believe that they have some random guy sitting down there throwing 100 MPH". Welcome to the SEC. He's going to pitch Sunday's because the staff thinks he's going to run up his pitch count a lot next year- and I think they're probably right. He's still learning how to pitch and he could be a guy that strikes out 10, walks 6, allows no hits and has 100 pitches after four innings. Once he figures it out I think he's a first round pick. IF he figures it out. If he doesn't he'll probably end up being a relief guy for the Toronto Blue Jays system. I wanted him to turn the corner so bad last year and he just wasn't quite ready.

Midweek- Davis Rokose. Could be a lot of people- including Cerentola if he craps out. Rokose is a LHP that doesn't light up radar guys and isn't that big but he knows how to pitch and is advanced for a freshman. A guy his size with his stuff almost making Team USA last year is pretty legit. He could be a four year guy for us and will be a good weekend rotation guy before his career is over. Definitely wouldn't rule him out of making the rotation if a couple of guys falter.

Relief ace- Carlisle Koestler. Grad transfer from Southeast Louisiana and was in their rotation at one point. He's had some injuries but he is a veteran guy who is 23 years old and I believe he has had some success against some good teams in Louisiana. My guess is he'll be the first guy out of the bullpen for Ginn and Cerentola and eat up innings and if Cerentola struggles he'll probably get the first nod at Sunday. If all goes well we'll use him like Leibelt last year but no guarantee on that.

Closer- Landon Sims. Totally up for grabs and I could see Spencer Price, Jack Eagan, Riley Self (yes), Jared Shemper, or Chase Patrick- or anyone else on the roster honestly winning the job. We're going to have to figure out who can handle the job and Price looked good in the scrimmage he pitched so he could get the initial nod at the job if he keeps looking good. Sims is a hard throwing freshman but the question is with his command. He might be really good in a short stint though. The other guys I mentioned will all get looks coming out of the pen and we'll see who emerges. Houston Harding is another JUCO guy that I think might be more of a match up guy and then we have two other freshmen in Will Bednar and KC Hunt that will be good in time but they're freshmen right now.

The rest of the lineup is pretty cut and dried for the most part. Lots of veterans who are coming back and we should have one of the better offenses in the league. Defensively we should be OK and we have a little bit of speed but I don't expect us to be a small ball team that manufactures a lot of runs. We're going to live by getting lots of extra base hits and knocking the ball over the fence.

Catcher- Luke Hancock. He's solid and I thought he played very well last year. He won't replicate Skelton's power but I think he will handle our staff well and will hit for a decent average. He took good at bats for the most part last year. Logan Tanner is a big time recruit who played for Team USA last year and will probably be the back-up. He has some power and his arm is a rocket launcher. He throws harder than most of our pitchers and may close some but it looks like we're going to probably focus on using him as a catcher. Austin Kelly is the third catcher and I think we may try to redshirt him if we can.

First base- Josh Hatcher. I'm expecting a big season from him. He's good defensively and I think he will hit for average. I could see him hitting 10 home runs but he's more of a line drive hitter so if he gets a bunch of hits and finishes under ten I'm OK with that from him.

Second base- Justin Foscue. Played for Team USA and has All-SEC and All-American potential at second base. I'm expecting double digit home runs from him and a high average now that he is a veteran and has found a home at second base. I don't think 20 home runs from him is out of the question although I don't expect it either.

Third base- Kamren James. He's a freshman from DeSoto Central and is going to be a good player for us. We'll see how he adjusts as a freshman but he has been holding his own right now in scrimmages. He's our best defensive option at third right now- but it's just a question of if he's ready or not. Landon Jordan may get the call if James isn't and they may platoon. Jordan's defense is a question but his bat is solid. Noah Fondren is a JUCO who originally signed with Alabama out of high school and he's a utility guy who plays hard and did well in the fall. If James isn't ready and Landon is a liability with his glove Fondren could very well be the best option.

Shortstop- Jordan Westburg. Invited to Team USA and had a big year in the Cape. Another All-American/All SEC candidate. I think he puts it together this year and may even be a first round pick if he has a big year. I'm expecting double digit home runs and a high average and really good defense. He had the highest exit velocity on the team last year and I'm curious to see if he changes his launch angle some to get a few more home runs. I think he's a future MLB player.

Left Field- Brad Cumbest. I love his skill set and raw potential. He's built like Mark McGwire with speed and a great arm. Of course he plays football so that has hindered his development some so he may never really reach his full potential at MSU but I think someone drafts him next year and he could be really good with some development. If he struggles we could go with Bryce Brock who is more of a contact hitter/speed guy. And also Noah Fondren may find a home here if James or Jordan emerge and neither Cumbest nor Brock emerge.

Center Field- Rowdey Jordan. We're not going to replace Mangum but Jordan is a solid veteran player who has some pop. I think he will be a more than capable center fielder for us. Hopefully he won't be as streaky as he tends to be. He'll end up at .300 with at least 5 home runs and probably more while stealing 10-15 bases.

Right Field- Tanner Allen. Another Team USA, All American, All-SEC guy. I'm not sure if he makes MLB or not because of his size and lack of a position but he can hit and there's no question about that. I think he gets at least 10 home runs too. He can run a little bit as well. Really good player.

DH- Brandon Pimentel. As with every year there are others that could DH like Landon Jordan, Noah Fondren, Cumbest, and etc. but Pimentel is who I think the staff wants to take the mantle. He's a candidate at first base too- but I think Hatcher gets that job. Pimentel has power but he's a JUCO and they usually have an adjustment period. He could be a surprise- but I'm keeping my expectations to a minimum at this point until we see exactly what we've got. I could see him struggling, getting benched and then coming on strong at the end of the year once he adjusts. He's a sophomore so we'll have him for at least two years. Picking up a LH power bat definitely is a good gamble with our ballpark.

This team has a chance at Omaha again because of the offense but I'm going to predict that our pitching doesn't come through, ends up being thin and we flame out in the SR.

[SaintDawg]

After what we all witnessed in 2018, I expect every team we field to go to Omaha every year. The teams always seam to evolve as the season progresses. Never count these guys out until the last out is recorded.

[preachermatt83]

Absolutely outstanding observation. I agree whole heartedly

[msbulldog]

Good analysis, thanks Todd. You must spread some Reputation around before giving it to Todd4State again.

[KOdawg1]

Pretty solid and accurate analysis. I think L. Jordan and James platoon at 3rd.

[Coach34]

I watched Pimentel take BP when I was there Friday. The ball jumps off his bat. Hope he gets adjusted

[BrunswickDawg]

I think this will be a year that as a fanbase we need to preach patience. There are way too many unknowns right now, and we could start slow out of the gate, then have another bad stretch early in SEC play since our first 2 series are against Arkansas and LSU.
Ton of talent, but we have a lot of inexperienced guys.

[PMDawg]

It's going to be weird not seeing Mangum out there. I'm going to miss him. He's like a Derrick Zimmerman type that you wish could play for MSU forever.

[somebodyshotmypaw]

Enjoyed the write-up Todd. Good work.

[smootness]

Defensively, it seems to me we'll be pretty dang solid in the IF but questionable in the OF? Does that seem accurate?

[bigplayslay]

In Spencer Price and Riley Self can come in and be dependable... Watch out.

[ShotgunDawg]

A few things:

- Looking forward to seeing if Ginn can log innings and to see if he's effectively added a 4 seam fastball in order to be more effective at the top of the zone vs lefties. Ginn struggled vs lefties last year and needs a 4 seam fastball to counter them.

- Seems like we're going to lead off Rowdy and I don't like that. Rowdy will always be to streaky for that role due to the hitch in his load and the aggressive nature of it. I wouldn't be surprised to see us at some point go with Foscue as the lead off, Allen in the 2 hole, and Westburg in the 3 hole. Just maximize the ABs of those 3 players and it'll produce more runs over the course of the season which has a heavy correlation with winning.

Rowdy Jordan struck out 69 times last year and had an OBP 15 points lower than the next lowest regular in the lineup. And we're thinking about leading off that guy? Have the coaches gone brain dead?

[ShotgunDawg]

In Spencer Price and Riley Self can come in and be dependable... Watch out.

Neither one is talented enough to do that

[Big4Dawg]

http://warrennolan.com/baseball/2020/conf-pred-all

Warren Nolan has State going 45-11, and #2 RPI. Not bad...(no idea how this is done)

[Coach34]

A few things:

- Looking forward to seeing if Ginn can log innings and to see if he's effectively added a 4 seam fastball in order to be more effective at the top of the zone vs lefties. Ginn struggled vs lefties last year and needs a 4 seam fastball to counter them.

- Seems like we're going to lead off Rowdy and I don't like that. Rowdy will always be to streaky for that role due to the hitch in his load and the aggressive nature of it. I wouldn't be surprised to see us at some point go with Foscue as the lead off, Allen in the 2 hole, and Westburg in the 3 hole. Just maximize the ABs of those 3 players and it'll produce more runs over the course of the season which has a heavy correlation with winning.

Rowdy Jordan struck out 69 times last year and had an OBP 15 points lower than the next lowest regular in the lineup. And we're thinking about leading off that guy? Have the coaches gone brain dead?

Rowdy had 2 seasons last year. One with contacts and one when he went back to goggles. Rowdy started the year 14-75 (.187) but finished the year going 60-155 (.387) after he went back to the goggles. Goggles Rowdy should be a helluva leadoff hitter

[ShotgunDawg]

Rowdy had 2 seasons last year. One with contacts and one when he went back to goggles. Rowdy started the year 14-75 (.187) but finished the year going 60-155 (.387) after he went back to the goggles. Goggles Rowdy should be a helluva leadoff hitter

I wasn't aware of that as far as the goggles go.

Maybe you start the season leading him off to see how it goes. If it's still streaky though, I'd maximize the ABs of my 3 best hitters. Foscue has incredible zone control & although he isn't your typical lead off, my guess is that he'd do a hell of a job

[hp22]

Are scrimmages open to the public and anyone know if we have any this weekend. I'm itching for baseball and may parlay an hour or two of scrimmage baseball with the basketball game this weekend if it lines up.

-I am worried about our bullpen. We have 15 back end innings to replace each weekend.

-I am worried defensively in the OF. Last year those guys covered the gaps. But when Mac got hurt, you could see a difference. Now you're replacing Mangum and Mac and that will be a chore.

-On the leadoff hitter conversation, I'll be interested to see Rowdey in that role. He flourished in the 6 spot in the lineup (but it may have been the goggles). That said, Luke Hancock really strikes me as a player that gets leadoff type at bats. He is patient and battles at the plate. The OBP% has to be there though. And I like the idea of him getting the AB in the 9 spot to roll the lineup over to Rowdey.

I hope the SELA transfer can have a Neff type year and fill that role with experience. That will help big time. The loss of Brandon Smith is a big time setback.

All teams have unknowns this time of year. That said, our "knowns" can beat anyone in the country. It's the depth and potential that has to come together.

[smootness]

Foscue doesn't walk as much and has the most power on the team. I would put either Allen or Westburg at leadoff, the other 2nd, and Foscue 3rd.

[Johnson85]

Why Hatcher at First and Allen at RF? I would have thought Hatcher is faster than Allen and a better fit in RF.

[AlSwearengen]

Great write up Todd. One thing that I will throw out there is that if you have listened to some of Lemonis’ interviews, I think he is excited about our young pitchers and is expecting more from them than a lot of us are. Hope he is right.