Leach has a history of bad defenses. Should we be worried no DC by now?

[Jarius]

Will be a fight for 6.

Leach will learn he is going to have to close the line splits down in the South. If not- he will we will get a heavy dose of inside blitz with DB's taking away the quick slants and such. I'm looking forward to the adjustments and chess matches this Fall

He scored 24 points on the road at Auburn in year 2 with Washington state talent. He went 7-3 against A&M while at tech. He's not going to change anything because SEC defenses are largely overrated outside of the 3/4 good ones a year.

[Prediction? Pain.]

Seems like this discussion needs some context.

Partial list of Texas Tech's national rankings in SP+ and FEI defense (partial because those rankings started in '05 and '07, respectively):

2005: 17th
2006: 44th
2007: 43rd / 59th

- DC resigns mid-season in 2007; Ruffin McNeill promoted to DC --

2008: 66th / 52nd
2009: 14th / 21st

And now for Washington St.:

- two years before Leach -

2010: 102nd / 114th (Yikes . . . .)
2011: 84th / 92nd

- Leach hired -

2012: 70th / 78th
2013: 62nd / 67th
2014: 97th / 107th (Yikes . . . .)

- fired DC, hired Alex Grinch -

2015: 77th / 38th
2016: 60th / 42nd
2017: 30th / 13th

- Grinch goes to Ohio St. -

2018: 59th / 79th
2019: 94th / 107th (Yikes . . . .)

- DC resigned mid-season in 2019 after debacle of biblical proportions against UCLA -

Traditional stats tell mostly the same story. In 2009, Leach's Texas Tech D was in the top half of the Big 12 in total D, scoring D, 3rd down d, red zone D, sacks, and TFLs (and in the top 3 in a few of those categories). And under Grinch, WSU's D was mediocre to solid among its Pac 12 peers in most of the same categories. (Top 5 in scoring D in conference games all three years, for example.)

So it looks like's dude's offense is capable of co-existing with a solid (or even a really, really good) defense. Just got to find the right people to run it.

[Prediction? Pain.]

WSU rankings nationally in plays defended the last 4 years:
2019 - 72nd
2018 - 29th
2017 - 28th
2016 - 39th

Leach has done a good job keeping his defense off the field

Good point, 7. After his first two years at WSU, they were usually either in the middle or in the upper third of the nation in opponents' plays per game.

Regardless, the difference between the number of plays WSU's D faced and the number that State's D faced wasn't often that large.

Opponents' plays per game:

2012: WSU - 76.5 / State - 73
2013: WSU - 80.2 / State - 66.9
2014: WSU - 72.8 / State - 77.5
2015: WSU - 75.6 / State - 76.2
2016: WSU - 68.7 / State - 72.8
2017: WSU - 67.3 / State - 62.5
2018: WSU - 66.8 / State - 65.6
2019: WSU - 69.8 / State - 64.4

[Todd4State]

Seems like this discussion needs some context.

Partial list of Texas Tech's national rankings in SP+ and FEI defense (partial because those rankings started in '05 and '07, respectively):

2005: 17th
2006: 44th
2007: 43rd / 59th

- DC resigns mid-season in 2007; Ruffin McNeill promoted to DC --

2008: 66th / 52nd
2009: 14th / 21st

And now for Washington St.:

- two years before Leach -

2010: 102nd / 114th (Yikes . . . .)
2011: 84th / 92nd

- Leach hired -

2012: 70th / 78th
2013: 62nd / 67th
2014: 97th / 107th (Yikes . . . .)

- fired DC, hired Alex Grinch -

2015: 77th / 38th
2016: 60th / 42nd
2017: 30th / 13th

- Grinch goes to Ohio St. -

2018: 59th / 79th
2019: 94th / 107th (Yikes . . . .)

- DC resigned mid-season in 2019 after debacle of biblical proportions against UCLA -

Traditional stats tell mostly the same story. In 2009, Leach's Texas Tech D was in the top half of the Big 12 in total D, scoring D, 3rd down d, red zone D, sacks, and TFLs (and in the top 3 in a few of those categories). And under Grinch, WSU's D was mediocre to solid among its Pac 12 peers in most of the same categories. (Top 5 in scoring D in conference games all three years, for example.)

So it looks like's dude's offense is capable of co-existing with a solid (or even a really, really good) defense. Just got to find the right people to run it.

I think that's exactly why Leach came to the SEC. It's a lot easier to attract the right people at MSU than it is at a non blue blood in the Big 12 or PAC 12.

Even in the 90's we were able to attract Joe Lee Dunn. Croom was able to get Ellis Johnson who was very well respected. Dan's two DC hires were Manny Diaz and Todd Grantham who were name DC- at least the second time with Manny. Joe was able to land Bob Shoop. I highly doubt Washington State would pay a DC 1.5 million if not higher. We are just now willing to do it.

I think we are about to start a new era of MSU football where we are going for higher goals than in the past. 6-6 with an Egg Bowl win and Liberty Bowl bid isn't good enough anymore. Leach may be the perfect guy to lead this. Really a good fit for both in many ways now that I have had time to reflect on it.

All of our DC candidates are P5 coordinators let rumors. In the past all we would do is go for G5 up and comers and head coaches that were sitting coordinators and hope that we landed Manny Diaz or Geoff Collins and not Joe Moorhead or Peter Sirmon. We basically created a revolving door where we were essentially a stepping stone.

[PMDawg]

I think wins and losses this year have a lot more to do with whether or not we have the QBs and WRs to really make Leach's offense click. As of right now, I would have to say that's a no. So, I tend to side with 34 here. That doesn't mean it's a bad hire. We are going to have to be patient. 2020 will be a struggle, and 2021 will be better. After that, I think we'll be pretty darn competitive. Look at 2020 like 2009. We may not have a great record, but we should see progress in a lot of areas and should feel confident moving forward.

[Spiderman]

Some guys are absolutely apprehensive about being the DC for Leach and having to coach 75-80 plays of defensive every Saturday. Hopefully we can get a hungry young guy thats ready to be a DC

Guy on 6 pack did a study. Over the last 5 years WSU has only defended a half play more than State per game on average. And that was with us leading the nation on 3 and outs on D in 2018.

[Saltydog]

I agree. His offensive schemes sometime don't exactly eat up a lot of clock and forces your D to spend way more time on the field. I like what he said about off season conditioning because those defensive guys better be in shape or we're in deep trouble in this league.

[Pipedream]

Good point, 7. After his first two years at WSU, they were usually either in the middle or in the upper third of the nation in opponents' plays per game.

Regardless, the difference between the number of plays WSU's D faced and the number thant State's D faced wasn't often that large.

Opponents' plays per game:

2012: WSU - 76.5 / State - 73
2013: WSU - 80.2 / State - 66.9
2014: WSU - 72.8 / State - 77.5
2015: WSU - 75.6 / State - 76.2
2016: WSU - 68.7 / State - 72.8
2017: WSU - 67.3 / State - 62.5
2018: WSU - 66.8 / State - 65.6
2019: WSU - 69.8 / State - 64.4

That's an average of 2.35 more snaps per game/per season over 8 years which is a really good sample size. That's a very miniscule difference.

[Coach34]

Guy on 6 pack did a study. Over the last 5 years WSU has only defended a half play more than State per game on average. And that was with us leading the nation on 3 and outs on D in 2018.

and 2 of those seasons he had veterans in Minshew and the guy this season moving the offense. Plus, the Pac-12 doesn’t play D like the SEC does.

The SEC had 6 defenses make the top 20 in scoring in 2019
Washington State faced 4 this year- going 0-4 and scoring 20 per game. Wash State’s D in those games played 71, 77, 51, and 81 plays of defense. The outlier being Washington game in rainy weather.

SEC D’s plus a new system are going to make our plays per game on D go up. You can count on it

[RezDog7]

Gonna be a long Fall for some of you guys. Ya'll expecting a car from Santa and he is bringing you a watch

How soon before you give Leach a clever nickname?

[Jarius]

and 2 of those seasons he had veterans in Minshew and the guy this season moving the offense. Plus, the Pac-12 doesn’t play D like the SEC does.

The SEC had 6 defenses make the top 20 in scoring in 2019
Washington State faced 4 this year- going 0-4 and scoring 20 per game. Wash State’s D in those games played 71, 77, 51, and 81 plays of defense. The outlier being Washington game in rainy weather.

SEC D’s plus a new system are going to make our plays per game on D go up. You can count on it

He's going to have offensive players with more talent in the sec. That is a wash. No matter how many times you want to repeat the sec has a bunch of great defenses it won't make it any more true. He has faced the same type of defenses his entire career as 75% or more of his sec schedule. You are perpetuating a myth. He's also not playing all 6 of those defenses. He's playing bama and LSU and Auburn. Everyone else on our schedule is what he is used to playing. Kentucky's defense was not good against people with a pulse either. They feasted on shitty teams.

[dantheman4248]

and 2 of those seasons he had veterans in Minshew and the guy this season moving the offense. Plus, the Pac-12 doesn’t play D like the SEC does.

The SEC had 6 defenses make the top 20 in scoring in 2019
Washington State faced 4 this year- going 0-4 and scoring 20 per game. Wash State’s D in those games played 71, 77, 51, and 81 plays of defense. The outlier being Washington game in rainy weather.

SEC D’s plus a new system are going to make our plays per game on D go up. You can count on it

Well we only have 4 of those on the schedule for 2020 so whatever point you went for there, you made it for the other side. You're telling us Leach will face a similar defensive schedule as he faced in PAC-12. And as others have shown it's a small snaps per game difference between us and Wazzu.

I'm firmly in the 8-4 is a reasonable goal camp. Schedule is too easy. SEC Defenses ain't what they used to be. early 2010s are gone. It's 2020 now. New Decade, New SEC.

[Coach34]

Well we only have 4 of those on the schedule for 2020 so whatever point you went for there, you made it for the other side. You're telling us Leach will face a similar defensive schedule as he faced in PAC-12. And as others have shown it's a small snaps per game difference between us and Wazzu. .

He also faced 3 defenses lower than 100 in Defense at Wash State. UPig was the only one in the SEC and they will be a little better in 2020 although probably not a lot. Denying the SEC isn’t a much better conference defensively is ridiculous

[Pipedream]

He also faced 3 defenses lower than 100 in Defense at Wash State. UPig was the only one in the SEC and they will be a little better in 2020 although probably not a lot. Denying the SEC isn’t a much better conference defensively is ridiculous

They are. No one should be denying that, but this feels/sounds like a chicken/egg argument. Are the P12 defenses worse because the P12 offenses are better or is it the other way around? Same can be said for SEC Defenses re: SEC offenses.

[Cowbell]

and 2 of those seasons he had veterans in Minshew and the guy this season moving the offense. Plus, the Pac-12 doesn’t play D like the SEC does.

The SEC had 6 defenses make the top 20 in scoring in 2019
Washington State faced 4 this year- going 0-4 and scoring 20 per game. Wash State’s D in those games played 71, 77, 51, and 81 plays of defense. The outlier being Washington game in rainy weather.

SEC D’s plus a new system are going to make our plays per game on D go up. You can count on it

Our number of 3 and outs are going down too. You need to count that in. We were so bad on offense. The only reason our Time of possession could go down is that we ran every play clock down.

[HailStateSZN19]

Looking at who WSU played this year and the team's scoring defense ranking:

New Mexico St.- 129th, Northern Colorado-X, Houston- 113th, UCLA- 117th, Utah-6th, AZ State- 35th, Colorado- 95th, Oregon- 9th, Cal-32nd, Stanford-80th, OR State-106th, Washington- 16th.... Avg. Defense ranking they played= 67th


Looking ahead to MSU's 2020 scheduled opponents & where they ranked this year in scoring defense:

New Mexico- 125th, NC State-83rd, UPig-124th, Tulane-56th, Texas A&M-39th, Bama-13th, LSU-33rd, Auburn-17th, Mizzou-15th, UK-14th, Bama A&M-X, Ole Miss-60th..... Avg. Defense ranking we will play= 53rd


Not just a huge difference. Comparable defenses that are similar ranking style:

Good defenses-- A&M at 39th to AZ State at 35th...Bama at 13th to Utah at 6th....LSU at 33rd to Cal at 32nd....Auburn at 17th to Oregon at 9th....Mizzou at 15th to Washington at 16th.....Those are 5 defenses that MSU faces next season compared to someone WSU played in 2019 and how the scoring defense rankings compare.


That leaves 6 defenses left on both schedules: MSU 2020 schedule avg. ranking of those 6 defenses= 77th (this is lowed down because UK was ranked at 14th but didn't include them in the comparable section above because there was no one left on WSU's 2019 schedule that was ranked comparable to 14th)....WSU 2019 schedule avg. ranking of the last 6 defenses= 106th.... That's a 29 place difference but when you're talking about going against the 77th defense vs the 106th defense the fact is they both suck pretty dang bad (we were ranked 73rd this year and we were pretty dern bad).

ETA: Just FWIW, Leach's avg. PPG against those 5 comparable defenses in 2019 was 23.0 PPG (13 vs Utah, 34 vs AZ State, 35 vs Oregon, 20 vs Cal, and 13 vs Washington).