+13 vs South Carolina

[angusyoung]

Gonna be ugly.

[MarketingBully01]

Doubt it. That line will come down.

[bluelightstar]

It's actually gone up. Quickly.

[HoopsDawg]

Doubt it. That line will come down.

You are a one track poster.

[hacker]

Doubt it. That line will come down.

It opened at 11.5

[DownwardDawg]

Gonna be ugly.

I'll be shocked if we cover. I expect USCe by 17. Sigh....Come on Mullen! I want to eat some crow!!!!

[mic]

Gonna be ugly.

well go bet it and make u some money if you think so...

[HancockCountyDog]

That Mizzou win really screwed us. If they had lost, the chances to win the East would have been zero and their players would have very little to play for.

Now they will be playing as if they still have a shot to win the East.

**** our luck sometimes

[LeakyD]

We played our best game at Auburn and they seem to be having a similar year to USC. I was pulling for a USC win. I think a late 2OT game on the road versus us having 2 extra days prep is a best case scenario for us. The 11am kickoff is great for the road team too.

I also like that Missouri needs to win 3 of 4 to win the East. Hopefully, OM will get their best game.

[grinnindawg]

I'd never researched it, just took the old "if your team is an 11pt or greater dog forget it" line as gospel.

10.5 to 14 point dogs have a 21% chance of winning outright.

Wonder how long it's been since we won a 10+ point dog game?

http://www.philsteele.com/blogs/2012/Aug12/DBAug1.html
Favorite of # of Gms Lost Outright %
31+ pts 596 6 1.01%
24.5-31 756 30 3.97%
17.5-24 1316 89 6.76%
14.5-17 836 110 13.16%
10.5-14 1458 306 20.99%
7.5-10 1360 359 26.39%
3.5-7 2476 865 34.94%
3 or less 1643 785 47.78%

[Political Hack]

power ranking is going to drive the line higher because USC has a huge advantage. however, statistically we are damn near the same team they are. Offensive rushing and passing yards are almost identical. Defensive passing and rushing yards allowed are almost identical. Mizzu is their only impressive conference win. Their other SEC wins are UK, Kentucky, & Arkansas. It doesn't get any easier than that in conference. They lost to UGA and Tenn, neither of which are juggernauts at this point... in fact their two conference losses are to two teams with a combined record of 8-7. They've only got two wins against teams with a winning record (UCF & Mizzu).

Also, Mike Davis--who is the engine that runs that train--is hurt. He's probably the best RB in the SEC East, and yes I'm including Gurley in that. The QB is also banged up and his running ability if what makes him so dangerous.

They're also coming off a huge emotional overtime win against Mizzu that will linger until Tuesday. They will not be as focused as us, and we've got ten days to prep for them.

Bottom line, take the 21%... come Sunday South Carolina will have been overrated.

[DownwardDawg]

power ranking is going to drive the line higher because USC has a huge advantage. however, statistically we are damn near the same team they are. Offensive rushing and passing yards are almost identical. Defensive passing and rushing yards allowed are almost identical. Mizzu is their only impressive conference win. Their other SEC wins are UK, Kentucky, & Arkansas. It doesn't get any easier than that in conference. They lost to UGA and Tenn, neither of which are juggernauts at this point... in fact their two conference losses are to two teams with a combined record of 8-7. They've only got two wins against teams with a winning record (UCF & Mizzu).

Also, Mike Davis--who is the engine that runs that train--is hurt. He's probably the best RB in the SEC East, and yes I'm including Gurley in that. The QB is also banged up and his running ability if what makes him so dangerous.

They're also coming off a huge emotional overtime win against Mizzu that will linger until Tuesday. They will not be as focused as us, and we've got ten days to prep for them.

Bottom line, take the 21%... come Sunday South Carolina will have been overrated.

I will love to be hearing folks call them overrated Saturday afternoon!!!! I'll take it!

[BulldogBear]

That Mizzou win really screwed us. If they had lost, the chances to win the East would have been zero and their players would have very little to play for.

Now they will be playing as if they still have a shot to win the East.

**** our luck sometimes

Fitting that it was a missed FG as well. But at least he hit the crossbar.

[CJDAWG85]

We are a good enough team to have a chance in this game. However, the second half woes will keep us from any shot at an upset. 2.4 ppg in the 4th qtr will not cut it. Plus we need a kicker we can rely on. These 2 on the road are recipe for disaster.

[FISHDAWG]

a business contact of mine from USC told me that we are their homecoming game

[FlabLoser]

Shaw didn't look banged up when he came in and brought SC back. Shaw worries me. With limited action against Mizzou, he'll be rested up to have a career day against us like Zach Mett did.

Our luck... We played Mett well. He just played balls out against us. Just before laying down against Ole Miss.

Whatever, I just hope we play our A game for 2 halves against SC. I think we win if we do that. Our team can play really really well. Problem is the long streaks of consistency in the 2nd half. Its been discussed to death. Hopefully we just keep the energy level up all game long.

[FlabLoser]

a business contact of mine from USC told me that we are their homecoming game

I don't know what that means anymore. MSU sells out season tickets. I think most other teams do too. Not like there is some once-a-year out of town crowd that "comes home" for this game.

[MarketingBully01]

I think the big thing is this. Start out strong. Don't allow a last minute drive to end the half. We have allowed drives to end the first half the last three games and for goodness sake run Dak to begin the second half! If running the read option with Dak is working against the defense, run that play over and over until they stop it! Kentucky and Bowling Green didn't stop us we stopped ourselves with penalties and bad play calling. And for all that is good, call a screen, draw or tell Dak to take off on obvious passing downs where they bring the house. If a team blitzes us, make them pay for it. If you call a screen on those two sacks they got on the fourth down call and the one where they grabbed the face mask, you score 14 points. It's that easy. Sheesh.

[ckDOG]

I think we play our most complete game of the season and lose in a close one. Our secondary will give up an easy 6 towards the end or we will miss 1 or 2 too many FGs.

[sandwolf]

I'd never researched it, just took the old "if your team is an 11pt or greater dog forget it" line as gospel.

10.5 to 14 point dogs have a 21% chance of winning outright.

Wonder how long it's been since we won a 10+ point dog game?

http://www.philsteele.com/blogs/2012/Aug12/DBAug1.html
Favorite of # of Gms Lost Outright %
31+ pts 596 6 1.01%
24.5-31 756 30 3.97%
17.5-24 1316 89 6.76%
14.5-17 836 110 13.16%
10.5-14 1458 306 20.99%
7.5-10 1360 359 26.39%
3.5-7 2476 865 34.94%
3 or less 1643 785 47.78%

Since 1992, we are 5-45 in all games as an underdog of 10.5-14 points and we are 2-14 as a road underdog of 10.5-14 points.