Devil's Advocate regarding football hype...

[CadaverDawg]

We're all wooly about football, myself included, so I'm going to play devil's advocate, and you guys tell me why I'm wrong or if you agree.

Everyone agrees Moorhead will open up the offense and we'll pass more. Well, whether you want to give Don credit or not, his "safe" play calling helped us when it came to turnovers....and turnovers are a recipe for disaster in the SEC. Why should we not be slightly concerned that we're about to start throwing it a lot more with a QB that sits around 50% completions for his career?

Could more passing and more reads actually end up hurting the O due to potentially causing more turnovers?

[ShotgunDawg]

Are we going to throw it more or just throw it differently?

If we throw more, are more passes to the RBs actually going to increase turnovers or are they an extended running game?

After that, I concur with your post.

My biggest fear is that Fitz just isn't an accurate passer and lacks the touch to throw a bunch, which will lead to a ton of 3 outs where our offense only ate up 30 seconds of clock.

[bulldawg28]

Fitz is a above average passer. His WR's hurt him a lot. Also, Jomo is smart enough to adjust to our strengths. He will not try to make a square peg fit a circle with the offense.

[bulldawg28]

Are we going to throw it more or just throw it differently?

If we throw more, are more passes to the RBs actually going to increase turnovers or are they an extended running game?

After that, I concur with your post.

My biggest fear is that Fitz just isn't an accurate passer and lacks the touch to throw a bunch, which will lead to a ton of 3 outs where our offense only ate up 30 seconds of clock.

Fitz was forced the ball perfectly or a tight window due to smaller WR's . Now that he'll have more size the pass radius increases.

[basedog]

The late but great Coach Darrel Royal once stated, "There are three things while passing and two of them are bad".

And the late but great Coach Pat Summit once stated, "Offense sells tickets but Defense wins games".

[thf24]

The wooliness in me says that while Mullen's offense limited turnovers in conventional situations, he probably added at least 3-4 over the course of a season due to boneheaded gimmicks that never worked (fake punts, etc.). He also wasn't without his share of 4-5 turnover blowouts despite safe playcalling.

As far as Fitz completion percentage, I'd like to think we're going to see that go up due to giving him bigger windows to throw into as a result of competent WR coaching. Hard for almost anyone to throw 65% when you barely have anyone who can get loose from even SWAC CB's on a consistent basis.

[ShotgunDawg]

Fitz is a above average passer.

I'm a fitz fan but I don't agree with this. He's shown no sign of being an above average passer. He has above average arm strength but throws off his back foot consistently, which leads to him airmailing the ball consistently. Additionally, he throws a heavy, hard pass.

While, I'm a fan, for him to take the next step as a passer, he needs to transform himself from the football equivalent of a 98 mph reliever with control issues to a a starting pitcher with touch, feel, and command.

[ShotgunDawg]

Fitz was forced the ball perfectly or a tight window due to smaller WR's . Now that he'll have more size the pass radius increases.

You just described about 40% of his issue. Certianly a major part but not the entire issue.

[MetEdDawg]

Are we going to throw it more or just throw it differently?

If we throw more, are more passes to the RBs actually going to increase turnovers or are they an extended running game?

After that, I concur with your post.

My biggest fear is that Fitz just isn't an accurate passer and lacks the touch to throw a bunch, which will lead to a ton of 3 outs where our offense only ate up 30 seconds of clock.

I think some of the action we see in the offense Jo Mo will run will help create bigger windows.

I'll also say that I believe the vertical passing philosophy that comes with this offense will open the short and intermediate passing game. That was my biggest complaint about the Mullen offense was that we got played so close by good secondaries that we could never get separation. The deep threat was never really a threat. So teams played us close and that cut our windows down in the short and intermediate passing game.

Fitz isn't a bad passer. He made some damn good throws last year including the one to win the Arkansas game. But just like any QB, the function of your offense and the types of playmakers at your disposal dictate how you throw. A strong OL, bigger WRs, and a vertical passing threat with the Joe Mo offense have me feeling very good about the passing game this year.

[msstatelp1]

The late but great Coach Darrel Royal once stated, "There are three things while passing and two of them are bad".

And the late but great Coach Pat Summit once stated, "Offense sells tickets but Defense wins games".

"Chicks dig the checkdown" but I forgot who said it.

[bulldawg28]

I'm a fitz fan but I don't agree with this. He's shown no sign of being an above average passer. He has above average arm strength but throws off his back foot consistently, which leads to him airmailing the ball consistently. Additionally, he throws a heavy, hard pass.

While, I'm a fan, for him to take the next step as a passer, he needs to transform himself from the football equivalent of a 98 mph reliever with control issues to a a starting pitcher with touch, feel, and command.

He's 50% right now. If you simply include the passes dropped that's above average.

[Ifyouonlyknew]

I think this narrative that JoeMo is going to come in & sling around like Mike Leach needs to die here. JoeMo is a guy who likes to take deep shots but he’s not running around throwing 60 times a game. I’ll do a comparison for the last 4 years of run/pass % between Mullen & JoeMo.

Mullen

2017 - 65/35 Run
2016 - 57/43 Run
2015 - 54/46 Pass
2014 - 58/42 Run

JoeMo

2017 - 50/50 Run
2016 - 58/42 Run
2015 - 53/47 Run
2014 - 56/44 Pass

So the truth is JoeMo loves to run the ball too but when he passes he’s going for the HR big play. That’s the difference between Mullen & JoeMo. Mullen was content with 10, 12, 15 play drives. JoeMo doesn’t mind a 3 play 80 yard drive off the strength of a 60 yard TD bomb.

[Cooterpoot]

We aren't going to throw the ball all over the place and we're going to throw to the backs more. There's not that big a risk increase. But the reward will be big. Mullen ran his minimalized playbook to perfection. But he was scared to do the things necessary to make us competitive with top teams. JoMo's record vs top teams won't ever be as bad as Mullen's. You have to take chances vs teams better than you. Mullen didn't. Screw him!

[shoeless joe]

I hope we run the hell outta the ball. Got two elite backs and a veteran line.

[BrunswickDawg]

I think this narrative that JoeMo is going to come in & sling around like Mike Leach needs to die here. JoeMo is a guy who likes to take deep shots but he’s not running around throwing 60 times a game. I’ll do a comparison for the last 4 years of run/pass % between Mullen & JoeMo.

Mullen

2017 - 65/35 Run
2016 - 57/43 Run
2015 - 54/46 Pass
2014 - 58/42 Run

JoeMo

2017 - 50/50 Run
2016 - 58/42 Run
2015 - 53/47 Run
2014 - 56/44 Pass

So the truth is JoeMo loves to run the ball too but when he passes he’s going for the HR big play. That’s the difference between Mullen & JoeMo. Mullen was content with 10, 12, 15 play drives. JoeMo doesn’t mind a 3 play 80 yard drive off the strength of a 60 yard TD bomb.

This is all true, but I think the bolded part is the key. Dan was so risk adverse, he rarely took the shot downfield even when we had WR capable and getting open. It was one of my biggest complaints about Dan the play caller. 2-3 shots downfield a game - even if they fall incomplete - opens up the offense and keeps defenses honest. Once it got to nut cutting time, everyone knew Dan abandoned the deep ball and defended us that way.

[bostondawg]

I think this narrative that JoeMo is going to come in & sling around like Mike Leach needs to die here. JoeMo is a guy who likes to take deep shots but he?s not running around throwing 60 times a game. I?ll do a comparison for the last 4 years of run/pass % between Mullen & JoeMo.

Mullen

2017 - 65/35 Run
2016 - 57/43 Run
2015 - 54/46 Pass
2014 - 58/42 Run

JoeMo

2017 - 50/50 Run
2016 - 58/42 Run
2015 - 53/47 Run
2014 - 56/44 Pass

So the truth is JoeMo loves to run the ball too but when he passes he?s going for the HR big play. That?s the difference between Mullen & JoeMo. Mullen was content with 10, 12, 15 play drives. JoeMo doesn?t mind a 3 play 80 yard drive off the strength of a 60 yard TD bomb.

Yep. This x10000. I think this run/pass splits show a similar narrative between Dan and Joe: when they have a QB they feel comfortable with they'll open up their passing playbook (Dak 2015 and Mike Nebrich at Fordham, who put up 35 passing TDs in 2013 and 30 in 2014). But JoeMo has no problem putting the ball in the hands of his running back(s).

ETA: and for stats comparison sake:
2014 Dak (rs-jr): passing--61.6%, 3449 yards, 27 TD, 11 int. rushing--986 yards 14 TD
2013 Nebrich (jr): passing--73.5%, 4380 yards, 35 TD, 7 int. rushing--513 yards 9 TD

2015 Dak (rs-sr): passing--66.2%, 3793 yd, 29 TD 5 int. rushing--588 yd 10 TD
2014 Nebrich (sr): passing--63.8%, 3599 yd, 30 TD 9 int. rushing-- -96yd 1 TD (lol)

[Cooterpoot]

"That’s the difference between Mullen & JoeMo. Mullen was content with 10, 12, 15 play drives. JoeMo doesn’t mind a 3 play 80 yard drive off the strength of a 60 yard TD bomb."

And considering how Dan struggled keeping a DC and had a couple bad ones (stuck his nose in the defense), it rarely made sense to rely on the defense vs good teams. Last year was the exception.

[sleepy dawg]

I think you're right to play Devil's advocate. We, as a site, tend to be pretty realistic as compared to most fan sites, but in this year's case, I think most are only considering the average to ceiling scenarios while ignoring the floor.

There are many unknowns. We have an entire new staff running entirely new schemes. We don't have the luxury of knowing which of our coaches aren't good enough. There's no way every coach we hired was great and a perfect fit and there will be some growing pains there. With all these changes, how long does it take us to really find our rhythm and gel? Could we end up losing a game or 2 we shouldn't have early on b/c of this?
And we aren't just going to be throwing it to the RBs more. We will be taking more downfield shots. Jo Mo seems awesome. He has head coaching experience and he ran a great offense in the Big 10. How he does as a head coach in the SEC West is still to be determined. This is a whole different ballgame than he's been in before. Our DC has some major redflags too. It's easy to say we can just rule his time at Tennessee as an anomaly, or are we missing something major with him. Maybe that very much needs to be taken into account on how he handles playing against the best of the best. What if Fitz' ankle has a major setback in game 2? Sure Key is the future, but is Key ready to lead us to a 10+ win season? I doubt it.

All that said, I do think we're going to have a big time season, but there are plenty of risks and lots of unknowns going into this season.

[CadaverDawg]

I think this narrative that JoeMo is going to come in & sling around like Mike Leach needs to die here. JoeMo is a guy who likes to take deep shots but he’s not running around throwing 60 times a game. I’ll do a comparison for the last 4 years of run/pass % between Mullen & JoeMo.

Mullen

2017 - 65/35 Run
2016 - 57/43 Run
2015 - 54/46 Pass
2014 - 58/42 Run

JoeMo

2017 - 50/50 Run
2016 - 58/42 Run
2015 - 53/47 Run
2014 - 56/44 Pass

So the truth is JoeMo loves to run the ball too but when he passes he’s going for the HR big play. That’s the difference between Mullen & JoeMo. Mullen was content with 10, 12, 15 play drives. JoeMo doesn’t mind a 3 play 80 yard drive off the strength of a 60 yard TD bomb.

Good info, I didn't realize it was that close to 50/50 with Joe Mo, but I also never went Leach. I was thinking he was closer to 60-65% pass, and I'm actually thrilled to see the % closer to 50/50 since we should have a great running game this year. I think HR balls will definitely open up the O, but they can still lead to more turnovers. I just hope Fitz protects the football, bc our run game and defense should be stout enough to lean on in a lot of games. I feel like we'll see a lot of receivers, TE's, and RB's running free in the RPO passing game with Joe Mo's style. Should be fun

[CadaverDawg]

This is all true, but I think the bolded part is the key. Dan was so risk adverse, he rarely took the shot downfield even when we had WR capable and getting open. It was one of my biggest complaints about Dan the play caller. 2-3 shots downfield a game - even if they fall incomplete - opens up the offense and keeps defenses honest. Once it got to nut cutting time, everyone knew Dan abandoned the deep ball and defended us that way.

I agree. The Kang once said he would tell Madkin when he called a play action fly pattern, he was doing it to back off the safeties so we could keep running the ball...so he'd tell him if our guy didn't have at least two steps on the DB, to air mail it over his head because it wasn't designed for a TD anyway, ha. I loved that about Jackie, and it was something Dan should have done more.