SBW game 3 vs. LSU - SOFTBALL thread... I can't stress how important today's game is

[BulldogBear]

First pitch is set for 3:30pm CDT with the game to be televised on the main SEC Network

Current SEC standings as of this moment:

#1 Florida (12-3, 40-3)
#2 Auburn (11-3, 40-4)
#3 Kentucky (11-5, 35-9)
#4 Tennessee (11-5, 32-10)
#5 Alabama (10-5, 38-8)
#6 Georgia (8-5, 35-9)
#7 Missouri (6-7, 29-10)
#8 Ole Miss (6-8, 30-14)
#9 Texas A&M (6-9, 32-11)
#10 LSU (6-11, 31-13)
#11 South Carolina (4-10, 31-12)
#12 Mississippi State (3-11, 23-19)
#13 Arkansas (1-13, 17-27)

As you can see, the SEC is a big fat hairy beast on the rag in softball. Perhaps even "bigger" than the SEC is in baseball or football. The SEC tournament only brings in the top 12, leaving the cellar queen at home. Vandy has no softball team and is the one missing if you haven't picked up on that. While anyone can look at the standings and see six elite teams, the rest of the SEC is more or less competitive. It is tempting if not obvious to want to sing "One of these things is not like the others," but we are only two games out of being left out of the SEC Tournament the year we are hosting it in our brand new facility. There are no divisions so everyone plays eight SEC series. Also, because there are an odd number of schools, at least one is playing a non-conference series each weekend. This is one reason you see a difference in the number of SEC games played as of today. The other reason is that each weekend there are a few Thu-Sat series, a few Fri-Sat series, and even a couple of Sat-Mon series. It all washes out to 24 SEC games apiece by the end of the season. The SEC Tournament will be four days long, and feature 11 single elimination contests, with #1-#4 getting a bye on opening day.

I'm going to go ahead and submit this at this point. I have a lot more to write and have already done so once only to be told I needed to sign back in once I went to Submit New Thread. WT17? How do you get kicked out when you're actively typing? So, I have to do it all over again. Gonna submit this now to get the thread up and then finish in another post or two.

[BulldogBear]

Now to discuss our schedule. Each school plays eight series vs. other SEC schools and this rotates every year. This season we play #1, #2, #3, #4, #5, #7, #8, and #10 from the above list of current standings. Our 2016 SEC opponents have a combined overall record of 275-69. For that matter, their combined SEC record is 73-47. This positive side of this is that it makes us look worse than we actually are, although I do believe losing can get in your head after a while and doesn't much matter who it was against. We're talking out 18-22 year old young ladies here. Losing is frustrating. We've lost a 14 inning game against Auburn and 12 inning game versus LSU. Frustrating. So for one thing, winning an SEC series today (and not against Arkansas) will be huge for morale and confidence.

Yay!! Now hear this. We still have to play #1 and #3 from the above standings (UF and UK) ON THE ROAD. I will take 1-5 right now and feel we've done well. Our only remaining series other than LSU, which is still ongoing, is home to Mizzou. I feel we must win one of these at the minimum and win at least a game in the other at the minimum. This is just for the first goal, making dang sure we stay ahead of UPig, who we do not play this season. I don't know how the tiebreaker works when you don't play head to head, although our win over #2 Auburn has to factor in at some point. Arkansas is hosting Auburn this weekend and has currently been outscored 44-0 thru the first two games. That's not a typo. Thankfully, Arkansas still has to play @UF themselves. Auburn will go for the sweep today. Their other series are @Ole Miss and home to LSU. In all likelihood we are okay, but if they pick up a series or otherwise win a couple of others, we can't afford to tank here at the end just because we play the tougher schedule.

In my next post I'll discuss our seeding in the SEC Tournament. I'm still paranoid about losing my longer posts before I can post them.

[BulldogBear]

If at all possible, it would be great to sneak up to #10. At least two "elites" will have to play on opening day of the SEC smackdown. To pair off with someone more beatable on the opening day #10 is the lowest you can hope for. But we need to overachieve and get some help and it probably doesn't involve losing to LSU today in any scenario.

USCe is one game ahead of us. They are 0-2 vs. the Beardsharkettes this weekend, but are home. I'm afraid we're UMiss fans today because we made need USCe to beat LSU a time or two, if at all possible. Also, we've already lost our series to the Rebels and they'll have a head to head tiebreaker over us anyway. Or we could need LSU to beat them, which is all the more reason to saddle LSU with another loss today plus give us a possibly needed head to head tiebreaker. USCe travels to LSU and Mizzou, while hosting Bama. Unfortunately, LSU only has series hosting USCe and @UPig left after today. And if UPig takes a couple from that could take us back to the problem in the above post. This situation sucks. The reality is that hoping to finish above LSU at this point is all but fruitless. To that end, maybe it's better if they handle both USCe (which will help us pass USCe) and Arkansas (which will help us stay out of the cellar).

So, if we pass USCe that still doesn't get us to #10. It seems we are very unlikely to pass LSU. So who can we pass to get that coveted #10 seed? We're sitting on 3 wins. The three others we might have a shot at overtaking all have 6 wins. This really means we have to get every one we can and today is one of them. Today vs. LSU and the whole series at home versus Mizzou are HUGE!!!!! If we can steal one; and we might need to; from the Gators or Wildcats it can only help but we can't count on that at all at this point. Losing all six is as likely as going 1-5, and 2-4 would be shocking. So, who?

UMiss hosts Arkansas which will likely be a sweep, but they then finish on the road to UGA and host UT. They still have a game at USCe today. With those ten remaining I think they go 4-6 at worst, although 5-5 is likely the ceiling. With the tiebreaker over us that makes overtaking the Beardsharkettes quite improbable unless we get hot and start whooping butt even on the road. Even if they finish 4-6 we'd have to go 8-2 to overtake them because of the tiebreaker. Let's be honest. We aren't finishing 8-2 with road series at UK and UF.

Let's look at Texas A&M, who we do not play this season. They host Florida and still have to go to Mizzou and Auburn. This has potential but also has the frustration of two schools (Aggies and Mizzou) we need to start losing are going to play each other and they can't both lose the series or get swept. Still, TAMU is one of the only ones left that could possibly tank. I think they finish 3-6 at best, hopefully they would go 1-5 vs. UF and Aubie and lost 2 of 3 at Mizzou. That would put them 8-16 or possibly 9-15. To get to 9 wins (overtaking an 8-16 Aggie squad and needing a tiebreaker with a 9-15 unit) we'd have to finish 6-4, which is frankly, unlikely. But if so, does not leave any room to lose to LSU today. If we hope to overtake the Aggettes, it is more likely to hope for the scenario where they finish 2-7. We'd have to go 5-5, which a lot more doable. It would mean winning the series against Mizzou, stealing on from UK or UF, and absolutely WINNING TODAY. We'd be tied and if they were swept by Aubie may give us the tiebreaker since there's no head to head and Aubie could be the highest ranked one we both played. I think we're Auburn fans from here on out. Really need them to overtake Florida if we don't steal one from Florida. This scenario is of course giving Mizzou 2 wins and they are the other one we are trying to overtake. Let's look at them.

The University of Missouri's remaining 2016 schedule. Home to TAMU, at MSU, and home to USCe. Good grief that doesn't help. I suppose if they lost all three series that would put them at 9 wins. Means we would have to go 6-4, still unlikely.

So folks, BulldogBear has come to the conclusion that if we have any realistic chance of sneaking up to #10 seed, we need to go 5-5. That becomes nearly impossible without winning today. We also need to pull for anyone and everyone that plays South Carolina and Texas A&M.

[BulldogBear]

So, why is this all so important?

We may well need a winnable game on SEC Tournament opening day in order to make the postseason. You see, we are 23-19. While our SOS is great (I think) we still have to be above .500 overall to get an at large bid. Kentucky got one at 29-24 in 2015. It's possible it's only .500 rather than above .500 but I can't find definitive info on that.

In non-conference play we still have home games vs. USM and South Alabama, both of which we've beat earlier this season. They could be a tough out, especially the latter. We also have a game @ MVSU but if we lose that one this conversation is essentially over anyway. If we lose today, it is very possible to finish this season's SEC schedule 1-8 or 0-9, putting us 24-28 or 23-29 overall. Even if we sweep the non-conference we wouldn't be above .500 and we'd be facing a very possible one and done come SEC Tournament time. If we manage 5-5 through the rest of the SEC schedule, we might drop one to USA or USM and still be 30-25, possibly facing a winnable opening round SEC Tournament game, putting us in good position for postseason. Even if we only manage 4-6 and lose to USA or USM, we'd still be 29-26 going into the SEC Tournament, although it will be tough to win one. Start losing a bunch of SEC games and this falls apart quickly. So, even if we hope to go 4-6 in SEC play the rest of the way, LSU is a must win. Even going 3-7 probably means winning today. We need to win all 3 non-conference games if possible. No rain.

Get behind the Dawgs to take the series today. I wish we hadn't thrown Silkwood for basically two games so far. We'll have to go by committee today probably. I wondered when we pulled Green in the 9th if it wasn't a mistake. Sure she gave up the homerun but that only tied the game and the whole LSU order had not seen her yet. For the most part, apart from that one pitch, they had struggled against her IIRC. When Silkwood came in I wondered aloud, but what if this turns into a long night. IMHO, both Knudsen and Green were pulled early. Vann cohened. With that said, she "played" a situation smartly when an LSU batter came to the plate that had not officially re-entered the game. She waited to see what the batter did, which was a 2 RBI hit, then brought it to the Umpires' attention, which made the at bat illegal and the batter out, ending the inning. I like smart coaches.

[BulldogBear]

Cooper, Cori #18.jpg

Cori Cooper will start in the circle today

[BulldogBear]

Winkfield, Kayla #9.jpg

Kayla Winkfield - SS

Seitz, Caroline #15.jpg

Caroline Seitz - 3B

Toler, Mackenzie #13.jpg

Mackenzie Toler - DP

Adams, Calyn #24.jpg

Calyn Adams - 2B

Bailey, Katie Anne #3.jpg

Katie Anne Bailey - C

[BulldogBear]

Ivy, Amanda #25.jpg

Amanda Ivy - CF

Niu, Sarai #21.jpg

Sarai Niu - 1B

Turner, Sabrina #34.jpg

Sabrina Turner - RF

Heimberger, Emily #11.jpg

Emily Heimberger - LF

[BulldogBear]

Dakota Prescott throws out the first pitch! He will join them in the booth during the 2nd inning. It's on the main SEC Network today!

[BulldogBear]

Why are we wearing teal, white, and gray unis today?

LSU wearing Purple, Gold, and teal.....

....awareness of a cancer type or something?

[BulldogBear]

I lost connection for a moment. Leadoff batter was out.

I also found out the teal is for Ovarian Cancer.

Second batter got a hit up the middle.

1 down, runner on 1B

[BulldogBear]

A poorly hit ball goes fair just in front of plate. Bailey is able to make a 2-3 play for the 2nd out of the inning.

2 down, runner at 2B

[BulldogBear]

BB puts runners on 1B and 2B with 2 out

[BulldogBear]

BB loads the bases with 2 gone

Vann out to the circle

[BulldogBear]

Cooper stays in

Line drive F-5, good job Seitz!

State dodges

Mid 1st, 0-0

[BulldogBear]

Bottom of the 1st

LSU pitching a freshman, Sydney Smith

[BulldogBear]

Winkfield, Kayla #9.jpg

Kayla Winkfield

Lead off infield bleeder for a single!

No outs, 1 on base

[BulldogBear]

Seitz, Caroline #15.jpg

Caroline Seitz

Oh no, please don't bunt in the first inning....

Winkfield almost caught by a snap throw from the catcher

[BulldogBear]

Yes!! FC 5-4 error fails to get Winkfield!!!!

Nobody out, runners on 1B and 2B

[BulldogBear]

Toler, Mackenzie #13.jpg

Mackenzie Toler

Sac bunt moves the runners over

1 out, Wink at 3B and Seitz at 2B

LSU coach visiting the circle

[BulldogBear]

Adams, Calyn #24.jpg

Calyn Adams

Squeez bunt!!!!! Winkfield Safe!!!!! Now, that's bunting!!!!

MSU 1, LSU 0

Doggies at Corners with 1 out