Baseball Program Expectations vs. History

[BrunswickDawg]

Program Expectations: Was MSU Ever Elite in Baseball? (long)

There has been so much talk over the last year + about our place within College Baseball, our past as "the school" in SEC Baseball, our lack of performance on the national scene, that I needed to really look at general performance in the SEC and gauge the past 2 eras - 1982-1998 & 1999-2015.

I am going to preface this discussion with a couple of things. First, I love baseball. Especially MSU baseball. If it wasn't for baseball this GA kid would have never thought of MSU when I had an extra slot for schools to send SAT scores to. That means I never end up with a scholarship, and I go to UGA and my life is totally different today. Second, I am admittedly on the fence about the expectations we should have for the program and Cohen. Last year was a disaster. I think this year is still too early to tell ? a lot like 2011-2013. SEC play will determine the season. How do results under Cohen measure up?

I picked 1999 as a break point since it started the Super Regional era and expanded the tournament field to 64. I compiled info on all 14 teams achievements - Conference Champs, Tourney Champs, Regionals made, CWS Made, CWS Runners Up, and CWS Titles. I thought about including Supers and National Seeds, but decided to make the measurements consistent in both eras. I think the results are interesting.

1982-1998
SEC SECT REG CWS RU NAT Total
LSU 7 5 13 10 0 4 39
FL 5 4 11 4 0 0 24
MSU 3 3 13 4 0 0 23 Cal St. F 30
T A&M 4 2 11 1 0 0 18
Bama 2 4 7 2 2 0 17
Ark 2 1 10 3 0 0 16
USC 0 0 10 2 0 0 12
AU 0 3 7 2 0 0 2
UT 2 3 5 1 0 0 11
GA 0 0 3 2 0 1 6
Mizzou 1 0 3 0 0 0 4
KY 0 0 2 0 0 0 2
OM 0 0 1 0 0 0 1
Vandy 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Miami 32 Texas 47 Call St. Full 39
1999-2015
SEC SECT REG CWS RU NAT Total
LSU 5 6 14 6 0 2 33
USC 3 0 15 6 2 2 28
FL 4 2 14 5 2 0 27
Ark 2 0 15 4 0 0 21
Vandy 3 1 11 3 1 1 20
T A&M 3 3 12 2 0 0 20
MSU 0 3 12 2 1 0 18
OM 1 1 14 1 0 0 17
Bama 1 3 12 1 0 0 17
GA 3 0 7 4 1 0 15
Mizzou 1 1 8 0 0 0 10
AU 0 0 8 0 0 0 8
UT 0 0 3 2 0 0 5
KY 1 0 4 0 0 0 5

Miami 29 Texas 39 Call St. Full 37

To me, it seems MSU is performing at a similar level over both periods. During neither period are we performing at what I would consider the same level as an "Elite" Program. LSU from 1982-1998 was obviously "Elite" - and still are today. They measure on par with Miami, Texas, and Cal St. Fullerton - true "Elites". What is interesting is that across the 2 periods, the greatest impact on our overall rank has not been being passed by "Original 10" SEC teams - but by adding 3 baseball schools of equal or better programs (A&M, Arkansas, & USC) and the emergence of Vandy - who historically was terrible at baseball. Also, the field seems to be compressing as the 4 "Elites" have come back closer to the 2nd tier teams. This is probably due to the expansion of the tournament field and more emphasis placed on baseball across the board. The field going to 64 has made the post season much tougher for everyone making. From 1982-1998 36 different teams made Omaha. From 1999-2015, 46 teams have made it.

So, what does this mean? In my mind, it means that Cohen is teetering with falling off our historic trend if we fail to make a Regional for a 2nd year. That probably means it is time for a change. However, I don't think failing to make the CWS - in a much more competitive environment - is as strong of a marker today about overall performance. I am sure y'all can poke plenty of holes in this. I'll let y'all discuss as you see fit.

[Coach34]

If Cohen misses the NCAA's- he gone. That would be 4 times in 8 seasons. Cant happen- especially with stadium money on the line.

My question is if we end up at the 8th or 9th team to make it out of the SEC- would that be enough? Because we already have big money people that want him gone- and squeaking in may lead to some heated exchanges with the Big Boys.

To your charts- we have certainly dropped since 99. Just because the competition got tougher in the SEC doesnt mean we shouldnt have risen to the meet it. Blowing our chances to win a NC in 85 and 89 really hurt. Those two teams should have gotten it done. We are still a top 25 program- but we used to be a top 15. A few more bad-mediocre seasons and we may just drop out the top 25

[BrunswickDawg]

If Cohen misses the NCAA's- he gone. That would be 4 times in 8 seasons. Cant happen- especially with stadium money on the line.

My question is if we end up at the 8th or 9th team to make it out of the SEC- would that be enough? Because we already have big money people that want him gone- and squeaking in may lead to some heated exchanges with the Big Boys.

To your charts- we have certainly dropped since 99. Just because the competition got tougher in the SEC doesnt mean we shouldnt have risen to the meet it. Blowing our chances to win a NC in 85 and 89 really hurt. Those two teams should have gotten it done. We are still a top 25 program- but we used to be a top 15. A few more bad-mediocre seasons and we may just drop out the top 25

I don't disagree with any of that. I think that squeaking in will make the decision very tough - especially with the team we should have coming back. If we start weak in SEC play and have to rally to make it in (like 2011 & 2012), then you probably have to pull the trigger. If we play consistent ball and finish top 4-5 in SEC play, I think you still have to question it, but he probably gets another year - unless we go 2 and BBQ in the regional. Then you are back to arguing again.

[Dawg61]

Have scholarship limitations always been the same? Were we allowed to offer full rides in 1985?

[Mjoelner34]

.

My question is if we end up at the 8th or 9th team to make it out of the SEC- would that be enough? Because we already have big money people that want him gone- and squeaking in may lead to some heated exchanges with the Big Boys.

I've heard there are some that won't donate as long as he is coach no matter what the results are. But, I'm sure there are others that are waiting on the results this year and just need assurances that if we miss the post season, a change will be made. Hopefully Stricklin is meeting with them and giving those assurances and setting the bar for the minimum achievement it would take this year to get their money flowing. Then, if we don't meet that minimum achievement, he'll have a decision to make. Status-quo which will leave you in the dust or a fresh start with a new coach and hopefully a new stadium.

[Coach34]

Have scholarship limitations always been the same? Were we allowed to offer full rides in 1985?

No- but Skip Bertman wasnt at LSU yet so we could get guys like Will Clark out of Louisiana

[bulldogcountry1]

MSU has never been an elite program. That's a strong word, and you need at least 1 natty to make a claim like that. I've seen similar arguments like this over the years on message boards, but I've never heard any of our fans talk in person like we have an elite program. Yeah, we have had a team or two come close, but most fans take pride in the atmosphere at DNF, and they treasure the memories. When you consider what we have (or had) as a fanbase, our facilities, and financial possibilities, and you compare it to other similar programs, you can't help but have a high level of expectation. Our fans feel like everything is in place for consistent success, and we are tired of excuses.

Meanwhile, in Oxford, they are doing everything we SHOULD be doing. They are are hosting about 50% of time, they are winning divisional championships, and they have won an SEC title since the birth of Christ. Plus, they are consistently improving their stadium. They have left us in the dust. We nearly reached the top of the mountain 3 years ago, and we have managed to fall all the way back down to base camp 1.

[Blackout]

Top 24 seed in the tourney or he should be done.

[Coursesuper]

MSU has never been an elite program. That's a strong word, and you need at least 1 natty to make a claim like that. I've seen similar arguments like this over the years on message boards, but I've never heard any of our fans talk in person like we have an elite program. Yeah, we have had a team or two come close, but most fans take pride in the atmosphere at DNF, and they treasure the memories. When you consider what we have (or had) as a fanbase, our facilities, and financial possibilities, and you compare it to other similar programs, you can't help but have a high level of expectation. Our fans feel like everything is in place for consistent success, and we are tired of excuses.

Meanwhile, in Oxford, they are doing everything we SHOULD be doing. They are are hosting about 50% of time, they are winning divisional championships, and they have won an SEC title since the birth of Christ. Plus, they are consistently improving their stadium. They have left us in the dust. We nearly reached the top of the mountain 3 years ago, and we have managed to fall all the way back down to base camp 1.

This is very well said. 2013 was a chance to move the program up and the opportunity was wasted.

[bulldogcountry1]

...and when we are paying Cohen the 3rd or 4th highest salary in the SEC, we should expect more than what we are getting.