This chart shows our SEC winning percentage at the end of each conference weekend in all of Cohen's seasons. While the white bar at the right of each grouping is the only one that
really matters, I find it interesting to track the progress of each season.
While in Cohen's first two years, we sucked all year without getting any better, Years 3-5 all started with mediocrity in the first half and then getting better in the second half. Even in 2014, when we won the first 3 series, we fell back below .500 by the halfway point and then came on strong at the end of the conference season.
Any theories on why we always get better in the second half of the year? Cohen's never had a winning SEC record after 5 SEC weekends, but 3 of his 6 years (or 75% of the time, if you throw out the horrible first 2 years), we've ended up with a winning record at the end of it. We average .100 higher in win percentage after Week 10 compared to Week 5 these last four years. It's happened too regularly to be explained by strength of schedule or coincidence. You can see a similar pattern during his time at Kentucky, getting better as the year goes on, though not as dramatic as it's been at MSU. Cohen was above .500 in one of his five years at Kentucky, but even then it was 8-7 in a year that he finished 20-10 and won the SEC:
For some reason, Cohen is a better second-half-of-the-season coach than first half. Maybe it's weather? Maybe he's hard-headed but finally gets it after 5 SEC weeks? Maybe it takes players that long to adjust to his coaching? I don't know, but it's the main reason why I'm not as gloom-and-doom as everyone else here right now. So we lost our first 3 series. I don't like it, but that's just Cohenball. We did the same thing in 2012 and 2013 and ended up fine. Better than fine. Winning records in the SEC both times, a championship in Hoover, and #2 in the nation. Both years were huge successes after the boards melted down all March and called for his termination.
Every year, the boards fully melt down in March and early April, and every year Cohen makes everyone look like idiots. Why is this year different? I'm going to give Cohen the benefit of the doubt until he shows that I shouldn't. The same people year after year insisted we wouldn't make a Regional in 2011 (all the way up to the final week), 2012 (insisting that we were a lock for 12th in the SEC), and 2013 (the year we finished #2 in the country). It wasn't
as bad in 2014, but the usual suspects did predict no Regional around mid-year when we dipped below .500. Why are the same boys who cried wolf right this time? Even if they are, weren't they bound to be right eventually when they claimed "No Regional this year!" year after year?
I'm going to go ahead and formally predict that we play in a Regional this year. We may be a bubble 3 seed that goes 2-and-out, but we'll get there. If I'm wrong, feel free to bump and ridicule me. I'll still have a much better baseball track record than the people who predict us not to make it every year.