Moreland v. Papelbon

[dawgs]

out of curiosity, i looked up the FIP for RPs on fangraphs for last season. kimbrel was 5th behind greg holland, uehara, melacon, farquhar, and rosenthal. and jansen was right behind him. and all of those guys except melacon have just as good, if not better, K and BB rates.

2012 was a ridiculous season for kimbrel, not disputing that.

in 2011, he led the league in FIP, but jansen, paps, david robertson, and sean marshall were all right there behind him, all of them except marshall with comparable or better K and BB rates.

[smootness]

maybe there's a case for the filthiest RP ever, but you can't even begin to compare ratio numbers of a RP to a SP. it's a completely different game. therefore, it's impossible to make a realistic case for "filthiest ever". you don't think randy johnson or nolan ryan or pedro martinez or clemens would have put up ridiculous ratio numbers pitching 1 inning at a time 60 or so times a season?

This is absolutely true. By no means am I saying that Kimbrel is better than any of those guys or that they couldn't do what Kimbrel is doing if they only pitched an inning at a time. I'm just saying that nobody has been this unhittable. Obviously he has that advantage; I'm not saying they wouldn't be just as unhittable as RP rather than SPs, just saying that there's never been anyone who came in and mowed people down to the level that Kimbrel does.

Pedro was the most unhittable SP of all time, when compared to the rest of the league, in 1999 and during his prime was pitching at a level that was just stupid.

In regard to your post about FIP, let me get home first. I really do want to look up the numbers from last year and compare them. I know Kimbrel's K rate dipped a little last year, but he was still completely filthy. Just from a 'who would you rather have?' perspective, I'm not taking any of those guys over Kimbrel. But I want to dig into the numbers more.

[jimbo352]

Paps has 286 saves and 41 blown saves good for an 87% success rate.

Mariano Rivera in that same timeframe had 273 saves (1 injured year) and 28 blown saves good for an 90% success rate.

Papelbon is one of the best closers in the last 30 years. Blown saves only became a stat in 2002.

As good as he was, he's not even the 2nd best of his time in the league... Joe Nathan was more dominant... In fact, there was a 4-5 year stretch in the mid 2000's when Nathan was as dominant as(if not more than) Rivera IMO. Nathan actually has a legit opportunity to reach 400 saves(has 350 I think) Had a chance to meet and spend some time with him at a charity event, and Nathan was a pretty good dude. It's tough to reach the HOF as a RP, especially playing in Rivera's shadow... If Nathan can put a few more years together like his last 3-4, he'll be in the discussion. Paps has a much longer road to get there, and he seems to be losing his stuff.

[War Machine Dawg]

Was talking about this with someone today, and we both reached the conclusion that a closer's "shelf life" as dominant is only about 3-4 seasons. They can still be good after that, but they aren't ever really the same, either. The only guys who've had extended periods of dominance were Rivera & Hoffman. Eckersley's run was 5 years. Smoltz's run was only 3 years, but he could've been dominant for much longer if he hadn't wanted to move back to the rotation. Billy Wagner had a pretty lengthy run, too. We'll see how long Kimbrel's run lasts, but this is his 4th season, meaning he could go either way.

[dawgs]

Was talking about this with someone today, and we both reached the conclusion that a closer's "shelf life" as dominant is only about 3-4 seasons. They can still be good after that, but they aren't ever really the same, either. The only guys who've had extended periods of dominance were Rivera & Hoffman. Eckersley's run was 5 years. Smoltz's run was only 3 years, but he could've been dominant for much longer if he hadn't wanted to move back to the rotation. Billy Wagner had a pretty lengthy run, too. We'll see how long Kimbrel's run lasts, but this is his 4th season, meaning he could go either way.

the amazing thing about hoffman is that he was dominant for that long and didn't throw but about 85, even in his prime.

and rivera get hit around 93-94 in his prime, but his money maker was the cutter, not a power fastball.

so many RPs come in and can blow hitters away with 95+ heat for an inning, but after 4 or 5 years of that, most of them are going to start losing some steam. kimbrel might be an exception. i think the braves deal with him is pretty solid though, and even if he falls off, he should still be able to be a top tier closer for the life of his deal. and only $42M over 4 years isn't breaking the bank.

[War Machine Dawg]

the amazing thing about hoffman is that he was dominant for that long and didn't throw but about 85, even in his prime.

and rivera get hit around 93-94 in his prime, but his money maker was the cutter, not a power fastball.

so many RPs come in and can blow hitters away with 95+ heat for an inning, but after 4 or 5 years of that, most of them are going to start losing some steam. kimbrel might be an exception. i think the braves deal with him is pretty solid though, and even if he falls off, he should still be able to be a top tier closer for the life of his deal. and only $42M over 4 years isn't breaking the bank.

The thing with Hoffman is he had that filthy change-up that was his out pitch. As you point out, he was never really a power closer in terms of his velo. Also agree about Mo using the cutter, but he was also mid-90s with it, as you pointed out.

Totally agree about the power fastball closers losing steam after 3-4 seasons. I also like Kimbrel's contract. It's sufficiently big to reward him for what he's done so far, but it doesn't break the bank and become an albatross if he falls off some, either. Although it looks like his fastball may already be a little bit down early this season. He was only hitting 96 on Tuesday and Wednesday this week, and we've seen him run it up as high as 98-100 previously. Of course, it's early and he may not have been giving it everything yet. Plus, 96 isn't exactly slow for a closer, as opposed to 92-93. And his out pitch is that nasty slider, not his fastball. That's a pitch that'll let him last longer than the typical power fastball closer.