Today's Severe Weather

[starkvegasdawg]

Ref,

Anything changed in your opinion after the night's model runs? I see the SPC now has the northern parts of the state under a moderate risk and commented in their discussion that the line moving through this area will be moving slower and possibly prone to breaking up into discrete cells with a tornado threat as they push through tonight. I think I may have to take off a little early and go do a little chasing today. Not the best of set ups but I just gotta get out there and scratch that itch. He who shall remain nameless but discussed before with his forecasts is not backing down any. Not sure if he is still just using the NAM or not. Getting ready to look at some of the lifted index forecasts and CAPE forecasts now.

ETA: Just looked at a site that has GFS ensemble information. It was showing lifted indexes this afternoon between -4 and -8 and CAPE values between 1,000 and 2,000 depending on which model you looked at. NAM and RAP was what I used for this short term information. RAP seemed to be the more robust of the two.

This is the site:

http://www.ready.noaa.gov/READY_animations.php

I assume it to be reputable.

[TheRef]

I'll give you a little hint, if you want to see which models are handling a certain situation the best, head to HPC's site and read the model diagnostic discussion and they tell you which models are handling the system the best. It's one of the many initialization tools I use.