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Future of College Football and MSU
I don't know how much of this is new or surprising but this is mostly from a Ross Dellenger article.
Basically the SEC and Big 10 are going to take over almost completely. This falls in the not surprising category.
As far as the playoff goes they are talking about expanding to 14-16 games eventually and by eventually I mean as soon as possible if the SEC and Big 10 get their way. I personally think they will expand to 16 because that's more games for TV which means more money.
Per the article, the SEC and Big 10 would get four automatic qualifiers for the playoffs with the ACC and Big 12 getting 2 apiece and then 1 automatic qualifier from the G5 and then a potential spot for Notre Dame if they do well enough to qualify. Of course, if you are keeping score at home that would be under a 14 team model but with a 16 team model we're probably looking at 2 at large bids if I had to guess although a 3rd automatic seed from the ACC and Big 12 is also possible.
So, to give everyone some insight on what it would take for MSU to make the playoffs I went through MSU top 25 finishes since the Tyler era because there was no point in going previous to that. And the teams that I believe would have made the playoffs or would have been at least on the bubble the numbers in parenthesis are where the team finished in the polls:
1998 (Bubble)
1999 (12th)
2010 (Bubble- probably just misses the cut) (17th)
2014 (12th- easily qualifies)
So basically, to sum it up it's going to take a 9 win season for MSU to likely qualify for the playoffs in the future. Yes, 1998 won 8 games but that was with an 11 game schedule and if they had a modern 12 game schedule I suspect they likely would have won the other OOC game to give them 9.
And speaking of the schedule, I think it is inevitable that the SEC is going to go to 9 SEC games by 2027. You can look at MSU's future football schedules and see this as MSU has four OOC games scheduled through 2026 and then beyond that 3 each year. Per Dellenger's article, there is also likely going to be at least one SEC/Big 10 game a year in the very near future. I'm not sure how that exactly is going to look in that I don't know if we are going to have to rotate through playing Big 10 teams or if they are going to try to link up "similar" schools- for example we may have a MSU/Purdue rivalry or say MSU/Illinois etc. So, it will be interesting to see how that actually goes down. My hope is that the remaining 2 OOC games are rotated between some of our old regional rivals like USM, Memphis, UAB, and Tulane and maybe South Alabama and then a FCS game which I would personally prefer to be an in state SWAC team. So, obviously that is going to make it more difficult to schedule our way into bowl/playoff eligibility.
Back to the playoffs my guess is that those games will eventually all move to campus except for the actual championship game. I do think the bowls will still exist though as they are quite popular for fans to watch on TV as evidenced by this past year and who doesn't love more football? I do think the Sugar, Rose, Cotton, Peach, Orange, and Fiesta bowls will essentially become what the Citrus, Gator, and Outback Bowls are today. 8-4 type teams like our 2022 team playing on NYD or New Year's Eve or Jan 2.
Also, with the new potential playoff structure and the potential for auto bids it will change how the SEC and other conferences handle SEC Championship Game weekend. Can't see it going away- but I do think it will be used to determine higher seeds. Also you may see the possibility of what amounts to "play in" games" for bids. So for example- two 9-3 teams playing for the final SEC automatic bid. (Potential Egg Bowl or Iron Bowl rematch just one week after those rivalry games but for an automatic bid in the playoffs? Lots of possibilities! AND MORE FOOTBALL!)
So, for MSU I do think it will get more challenging BUT I think with the way things are going we are also going to have some advantages to attract players being in the SEC. If MSU works hard and invests in football AND football recruiting and doesn't make anymore idiotic hires like Zach Arnett I think we can compete and at least be what we were under Dan Mullen.
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