How I See It

[Todd4State]

1. First up we have the Governor's Cup. We need to win because it would continue to build fan goodwill towards the team and nothing builds that like beating Ole Miss. Hopefully Lemonis will actually sustain the momentum rather than have another Central Arkansas disaster. As far as RPI goes MSU and Ole Miss are right next to each other so I can't imagine the game having a huge impact on that one way or the other although winning would likely help us more IMO and I could see us moving up a couple more spots potentially with a win which is helpful.

2. Alabama. This series is huge for both teams. Their RPI sits at 15 and this is where we could make up some ground potentially. We need to at least win this series. Alabama has struggled on the road this year although they are coming off of a road series win over Ole Miss. How we do during this series will essentially determine what we have to do the rest of the season. They're much better than the typical Alabama team that we have recently faced so I'm expecting a war this weekend.

3. Arkansas. Win the Alabama series and this almost becomes a series where we are playing with house money. We will likely not win this series and may even get swept. The good news is Arkansas's RPI is 2. So even getting one win could be massive.

4. North Alabama. I doubt we play this game. Their RPI is 278 and there is zero reason to play this game that benefits us.

5. Mizzou. They're better than you think according to RPI! Let's hope they don't get upset by Lindenwood on Tuesday. We also need to pull for them to win their series against Auburn which should elevate their RPI some. They are playing to get into the SEC Tournament so they absolutely have something to play for and they have been Lemonis's nemesis. Their RPI is at 91 currently so they're likely Q3. To host a regional assuming we win the Alabama series and get swept by Arkansas will likely require us sweeping Mizzou. That would put us at 17 wins.

Historical context

2018- Four Regional hosts, lowest win total 18
2019- Six Regional hosts, lowest win total 16
2020- LOL
2021- Seven Regional hosts, lowest win total 16
2022- Four Regional hosts, lowest win total 16 (LSU left out of hosting with 17?)
2023- Seven Regional hosts, lowest win total 16, but there were some schools left out with 16

So looking at recent historical context we can expect there to be somewhere between 4-7 hosts given to the SEC and historically speaking if win 16 SEC games we have a chance to host. Because of where our RPI is I would venture to guess that 17 SEC likely get us a host spot. Anything above 17 and we should be a lock.

[Pancho]

Good info.

[BeardoMSU]

Good stuff. Thanks, Todd.