D1 Baseball's midseason Field off 64 projections out today

[the_real_MSU_is_us]

Being a 2 seed isn't "bad" but it should be a down year, not a high point.

Given our level of fan support, we should host 5 times in a decade and be a 2 seed the other 5 times. I could accept an occasional 3 seed if we had some bad luck (and the line between a 3 seed and hosting is pretty small anyway), but we should never miss the tournament at all.

I think a 5 year run should include the following: 1x missed tournament, 1x bounced from a regional, 3 SRs with 1 or 2 Omahas.

We are top 3 in fan support, top 5 in facilities, top 10 (give or take) in recruiting each year, top 10 in coaching pay, and have to be top 20 in baseball NIL. That should average a strong SR team with occasional peaks or dips thrown in there. Like what C34 was saying in the other thread, SR is a good expectation for our program. Maybe with a slightly >50% chance of making Omaha when we do make a SR

[DEDawg]

I think a 5 year run should include the following: 1x missed tournament, 1x bounced from a regional, 3 SRs with 1 or 2 Omahas.

We are top 3 in fan support, top 5 in facilities, top 10 (give or take) in recruiting each year, top 10 in coaching pay, and have to be top 20 in baseball NIL. That should average a strong SR team with occasional peaks or dips thrown in there. Like what C34 was saying in the other thread, SR is a good expectation for our program. Maybe with a slightly >50% chance of making Omaha when we do make a SR

I don?t know? saying you have to make the equivalent of the elite 8 1-2 times every 5 years is TOUGH

[the_real_MSU_is_us]

I don?t know? saying you have to make the equivalent of the elite 8 1-2 times every 5 years is TOUGH

We should be a top 10-15 team by any weight of the numbers I posted. I am saying in a 5 year stretch I expect: an awful year (missed tournament), a bad year (not field of 16), 1-2 par years (field of 16) and 1-2 years where we punch slightly above our weight and make the elite 8.

I don't see how that unreasonable. Like a team can outperform their 5 year average 1 or 2 times in that span

[Quaoarsking]

I don?t know? saying you have to make the equivalent of the elite 8 1-2 times every 5 years is TOUGH

I don't know, we've been to Omaha 7 times going back to 1997, and that includes the Polk II dark era, the early Cohen rough years, and Lemonis's crash-and-burn.

If we're hosting at least twice every 5 years and getting a 2 seed or higher 4 times every 5 years, making Omaha 1-2 times should be doable.

[Quaoarsking]

I think a 5 year run should include the following: 1x missed tournament, 1x bounced from a regional, 3 SRs with 1 or 2 Omahas.

We are top 3 in fan support, top 5 in facilities, top 10 (give or take) in recruiting each year, top 10 in coaching pay, and have to be top 20 in baseball NIL. That should average a strong SR team with occasional peaks or dips thrown in there. Like what C34 was saying in the other thread, SR is a good expectation for our program. Maybe with a slightly >50% chance of making Omaha when we do make a SR

As long as 10-11 teams from the SEC are making a Regional (probably going to be 12-13 starting next year), there's no excuse to ever miss a Regional. I get that baseball is fluky and stuff can happen, but it should be way less often than once every 5 years. Like, once every 20 maybe. In the era of NIL and transfer portal, we should never be "down" for very long.

I actually don't get too worked up on what we should expect in the postseason itself. Host half the time and be a 2-seed the other half, and the rest should take care of itself. There's just too much flukiness to get too hung up, as long as we're not underperforming in the postseason regularly.

[Johnson85]

As long as 10-11 teams from the SEC are making a Regional (probably going to be 12-13 starting next year), there's no excuse to ever miss a Regional.

I think missed regionals should definitely be rare, but are there 4 programs so bad in the SEC we should never drop into the bottom four? Missouri? UK? It seems like every SEC team takes baseball relatively seriously now and never falling into the bottom three or four is a tall order.