D1 Baseball's midseason Field off 64 projections out today

[Coach34]

https://d1baseball.com/columns/2024-...4-projections/

SEC with 11 teams in
State a 2 seed at #9 overall seed Duke

Obviously doesnt mean much right now but we are looked at pretty strongly nationally right now in spite of our own fans whining and moaning

[StarkVegasSteve]

That'd be a great 2/3 matchup for us. Our fans would get an up close look at our next HC. And we could go ahead and interview him that weekend.

[DownwardDawg]

That would be a great draw.

[BrunswickDawg]

https://d1baseball.com/columns/2024-...4-projections/

SEC with 11 teams in
State a 2 seed at #9 overall seed Duke

Obviously doesnt mean much right now but we are looked at pretty strongly nationally right now in spite of our own fans whining and moaning

Just got to win games. Simple as that.

[Quaoarsking]

Given our talent level, we should be hosting and pushing for a top 8 seed. Being a 2 seed on the road is a pretty big failure from Lemonis. Maybe not as much as the last 2 years, but it shouldn't guarantee him another year.

[Johnson85]

Given our talent level, we should be hosting and pushing for a top 8 seed. Being a 2 seed on the road is a pretty big failure from Lemonis. Maybe not as much as the last 2 years, but it shouldn't guarantee him another year.

I don't know about our talent level, but to me just as important (or maybe more important?) than our seed is our position in the SEC. If this is going to be a peak year for us before stepping back some, and we don't finish in the top half of the SEC, that's hard to swallow. I know the SEC is loaded but still, three years without a top half finish is something that appears to have happened twice since the seventies, once with Ron Polk II, then a combination of Polk II's last year and Cohen's first two years.

[Commercecomet24]

Just got to win games. Simple as that.

Yes, the most rational poster on the board. Have some rep Bruns!

You must spread some Reputation around before giving it to BrunswickDawg again.

[smootness]

https://d1baseball.com/columns/2024-...4-projections/

SEC with 11 teams in
State a 2 seed at #9 overall seed Duke

Obviously doesnt mean much right now but we are looked at pretty strongly nationally right now in spite of our own fans whining and moaning

We are obviously much improved, which is great to see. And with our +19 RD in SEC games so far even with a tough schedule, I think we have a chance to have a very good season. That is awesome.

However, the only reason we view a regional 2 seed as ?pretty strong? is because of the utter failure of the last 2 years. In reality, that should be a somewhat disappointing season for us, given the 6 SEC teams projected to host. If the best we can do in 3 years is a 2 seed, that would not be a ringing endorsement and reason to keep this staff.

[BrunswickDawg]

We are obviously much improved, which is great to see. And with our +19 RD in SEC games so far even with a tough schedule, I think we have a chance to have a very good season. That is awesome.

However, the only reason we view a regional 2 seed as ?pretty strong? is because of the utter failure of the last 2 years. In reality, that should be a somewhat disappointing season for us, given the 6 SEC teams projected to host. If the best we can do in 3 years is a 2 seed, that would not be a ringing endorsement and reason to keep this staff.

Just playing devils advocate - what if we win the regional as a 2 seed? Do you devalue the '11, '14, '17 and '18 teams because they were a 2 seed?

[Quaoarsking]

Just playing devils advocate - what if we win the regional as a 2 seed? Do you devalue the '11, '14, '17 and '18 teams because they were a 2 seed?

Being a 2 seed isn't "bad" but it should be a down year, not a high point.

Given our level of fan support, we should host 5 times in a decade and be a 2 seed the other 5 times. I could accept an occasional 3 seed if we had some bad luck (and the line between a 3 seed and hosting is pretty small anyway), but we should never miss the tournament at all.

[the_real_MSU_is_us]

Being a 2 seed isn't "bad" but it should be a down year, not a high point.

Given our level of fan support, we should host 5 times in a decade and be a 2 seed the other 5 times. I could accept an occasional 3 seed if we had some bad luck (and the line between a 3 seed and hosting is pretty small anyway), but we should never miss the tournament at all.

I think a 5 year run should include the following: 1x missed tournament, 1x bounced from a regional, 3 SRs with 1 or 2 Omahas.

We are top 3 in fan support, top 5 in facilities, top 10 (give or take) in recruiting each year, top 10 in coaching pay, and have to be top 20 in baseball NIL. That should average a strong SR team with occasional peaks or dips thrown in there. Like what C34 was saying in the other thread, SR is a good expectation for our program. Maybe with a slightly >50% chance of making Omaha when we do make a SR

[DEDawg]

I think a 5 year run should include the following: 1x missed tournament, 1x bounced from a regional, 3 SRs with 1 or 2 Omahas.

We are top 3 in fan support, top 5 in facilities, top 10 (give or take) in recruiting each year, top 10 in coaching pay, and have to be top 20 in baseball NIL. That should average a strong SR team with occasional peaks or dips thrown in there. Like what C34 was saying in the other thread, SR is a good expectation for our program. Maybe with a slightly >50% chance of making Omaha when we do make a SR

I don?t know? saying you have to make the equivalent of the elite 8 1-2 times every 5 years is TOUGH

[the_real_MSU_is_us]

I don?t know? saying you have to make the equivalent of the elite 8 1-2 times every 5 years is TOUGH

We should be a top 10-15 team by any weight of the numbers I posted. I am saying in a 5 year stretch I expect: an awful year (missed tournament), a bad year (not field of 16), 1-2 par years (field of 16) and 1-2 years where we punch slightly above our weight and make the elite 8.

I don't see how that unreasonable. Like a team can outperform their 5 year average 1 or 2 times in that span

[Quaoarsking]

I think a 5 year run should include the following: 1x missed tournament, 1x bounced from a regional, 3 SRs with 1 or 2 Omahas.

We are top 3 in fan support, top 5 in facilities, top 10 (give or take) in recruiting each year, top 10 in coaching pay, and have to be top 20 in baseball NIL. That should average a strong SR team with occasional peaks or dips thrown in there. Like what C34 was saying in the other thread, SR is a good expectation for our program. Maybe with a slightly >50% chance of making Omaha when we do make a SR

As long as 10-11 teams from the SEC are making a Regional (probably going to be 12-13 starting next year), there's no excuse to ever miss a Regional. I get that baseball is fluky and stuff can happen, but it should be way less often than once every 5 years. Like, once every 20 maybe. In the era of NIL and transfer portal, we should never be "down" for very long.

I actually don't get too worked up on what we should expect in the postseason itself. Host half the time and be a 2-seed the other half, and the rest should take care of itself. There's just too much flukiness to get too hung up, as long as we're not underperforming in the postseason regularly.

[Quaoarsking]

I don?t know? saying you have to make the equivalent of the elite 8 1-2 times every 5 years is TOUGH

I don't know, we've been to Omaha 7 times going back to 1997, and that includes the Polk II dark era, the early Cohen rough years, and Lemonis's crash-and-burn.

If we're hosting at least twice every 5 years and getting a 2 seed or higher 4 times every 5 years, making Omaha 1-2 times should be doable.

[CaptainObvious]

So where are Austin Peay and Central Arkansas projected to be?

[Coach34]

So where are Austin Peay and Central Arkansas projected to be?

Somewhere around where Southern SWAC is projected

[SPMT]

Somewhere around where Southern SWAC is projected

How’s GA southern? They smoked SC today.

[CaptainObvious]

Somewhere around where Southern SWAC is projected

Southern of the SWAC will probably be playing Jackson of the SWAC for the conference Championship so the winner will be in a Regional. So back to my question, what Regionals will APU and UCA be pencilled in for? They both outstanding baseball teams who beat up on an SEC powerhouse coached by a Hall of Fame College Coach.

[preachermatt83]

To me the expectations don’t really change from year to year. Be in the discussion to host and more supers than not. Other than that there are so many other variables, but if you are getting to a super 50 percent of the time then 25 percent of the time you would be in Omaha realistically. Now again, there are some years this won’t play out. Coming off two terrible years, I think a #2 seed should be a reasonable expectation but the next year should prove more improvement. Therein lies the problem. I like Lemo. I want him to be the guy to meet our expectations. But my worry is that we won’t be very good next year. Two bad seasons followed by a decent one only to take a step back the next year… will result in a coaching change. And so it should. Lemo needs to get in as a 2 seed and kill it in the portal this off season in order to be our coach in 2026.