Confidence level

[Coach34]

How is our confidence today?

[Quaoarsking]

Medium. The team is gutsy and rising above our substandard coach, but he's still holding us back.

On top of that, our poor RPI means 13-17 likely doesn't get us a Regional at all, and we'll need 19 or 20 SEC wins to host, meaning we probably will be underseeded in the NCAA Tournament (assuming we make it at all, which we probably will), giving us a harder path to Omaha.

Longterm confidence is lower since all of our good players are leaving after this year, so we really need to make a run to Omaha now, because next year will be a step back unless we hit the portal jackpot.

[BuckyIsAB****]

Ballsy win from the program. Culture may just be back

[basedog]

Helped my confidence today 34.

[the_real_MSU_is_us]

How is our confidence today?

We had 3 games vs UGA at home and all 3 games were close late.

So I'd say my confidence level is at "we're about the same as UGA".

Is UGA good enough? They're like the 9th best team in the conference

[Coach34]

So I'd say my confidence level is at "we're about the same as UGA".

Is UGA good enough? They're like the 9th best team in the conference

Mizzou swept Florida- so we're worse than Mizzou with that line of thinking

[the_real_MSU_is_us]

Mizzou swept Florida- so we're worse than Mizzou with that line of thinking

Ok, fair enough I guess. I think this weekend cemented is as "mediocre".

We beat LSU and thought we had something, but they're one of the worst teams in the conference so we went 2-1 vs one of the easiest weekends. Went to A&M and got a win, solid showing. Went to a decent UF team and got 1 and fought hard, again decent showing. Then we get another home series vs one of the easier teams on the schedule and have to fight like hell to BARELY defend our home.

That's the definition of "mid" -as I think the kids you coach say- isn't it?

We aren't bad we're just not at the State standard and it will be a fight to get to 14 wins

[Commercecomet24]

We're top 7 in conference right now. It could
Move up or down depending on what happens the rest of the way.

[Coach34]

We aren't bad we're just not at the State standard and it will be a fight to get to 14 wins

I guess the issue remains what the "State standard" is. We've hosted 4 times in the last decade going back to 2013 since 2020 was killed. Doing something less than half the time will never be a "standard"

[Todd4State]

I guess the issue remains what the "State standard" is. We've hosted 4 times in the last decade going back to 2013 since 2020 was killed. Doing something less than half the time will never be a "standard"

Our standard should also never be based on something decided by a committee. That's why a SR is my personal standard.

[Todd4State]

Medium. The team is gutsy and rising above our substandard coach, but he's still holding us back.

On top of that, our poor RPI means 13-17 likely doesn't get us a Regional at all, and we'll need 19 or 20 SEC wins to host, meaning we probably will be underseeded in the NCAA Tournament (assuming we make it at all, which we probably will), giving us a harder path to Omaha.

Longterm confidence is lower since all of our good players are leaving after this year, so we really need to make a run to Omaha now, because next year will be a step back unless we hit the portal jackpot.

Our RPI actually went down 3 today. It's like 47 so it's a concern.

[Coach34]

Our standard should also never be based on something decided by a committee. That's why a SR is my personal standard.

I actually agree here. When you make a Super- it’s been a successful season without a doubt

[Quaoarsking]

I think a team that hosts (especially as a top 8 seed) and loses its Regional generally had a better season that a 3 seed who happens to win a Regional.

Now maybe there are a few specific examples where this isn't clear, and if that 3 seed goes deep into Omaha, maybe not. But baseball is too random and fickle to let one bad weekend derail a season. I prefer to judge the quality of the season on SEC record, RPI (I know, it's not a great system but it's what we have), and what seed we get. Making a deep run to Omaha is awesome, but I'm going to be more comfortable with Lemonis going forward if we host and lose than if we don't host, but lose in the Supers.

[the_real_MSU_is_us]

I guess the issue remains what the "State standard" is. We've hosted 4 times in the last decade going back to 2013 since 2020 was killed. Doing something less than half the time will never be a "standard"

Why can't we have a "standard" of top 16? We are too 16 in history, facilities, fan support, coaching salary, recruiting, and probably are near it in NIL.

Why would we accept a "standard" that's less than the average of our parts?

But moreover, if we are in the hosting discussion (and don't go 0-2 in the regional) absolutely nobody will be demanding we fire Lemo. Myself included. So don't act like my "state standard" I mean "host or be fired". Also, we won't be in the hosting discussion will we? We will be a bubble team counting wins till the last weekend and hoping for a win in Hoover. That's a little bit different from hosting isn't it?

[Coach34]

I think a team that hosts (especially as a top 8 seed) and loses its Regional generally had a better season that a 3 seed who happens to win a Regional.

Now maybe there are a few specific examples where this isn't clear, and if that 3 seed goes deep into Omaha, maybe not. But baseball is too random and fickle to let one bad weekend derail a season. I prefer to judge the quality of the season on SEC record, RPI (I know, it's not a great system but it's what we have), and what seed we get. Making a deep run to Omaha is awesome, but I'm going to be more comfortable with Lemonis going forward if we host and lose than if we don't host, but lose in the Supers.

Totally disagree. If you are national seed and dont win your Regional??? Failed season and underachieved

[dawgday166]

Right now ... I'm cautiously optimistic.

Hadn't said anything yet but since the beginning of SEC play I been watching and I've thought this team has potential.

FWIW here are a couple of my thoughts on lineup (nothing drastic):
I'm not crazy about Larry as leadoff. I'd move him to the 8 or 9 hole. His BA is too low and he just doesn't make enough happen at the top of the order IMO. I mention this cause I just am really bugged at the lack of productivity there. If he starts hitting really good again, he can be moved back up there maybe.
I'd move Merchon to leadoff. He makes things happen and is more of a prototype leadoff to me, just needs to cut down on the Ks and make more consistent contact. He also don't need to be doing stupid stuff like getting picked off 2nd either.
Chance is who I'd probably move to the 2 slot. He'll also get better pitches to hit with DJ behind him. He's been hitting the ball pretty well since I been watching. And he also makes contact a lot and doesn't K hardly at all. Good hit & run/run & hit guy.
I'd leave the rest of it about as is.
Overall we need to cut down on the Ks. But I will say most of the guys don't SO looking too often.
Hitting with RISP is pretty darn good IMO. At least that's my perception without looking at the stats. My perception is we hit better with runners on than off base. We also seem to hit better when behind too.
I love how mentally tough and how good they are at coming from behind. Huge Sac's big base running blunder (damn he don't need to be doing that) could've sucked the wind out of a lot of teams but this team just keeps scrapping. I love that.

Pitching:
I ain't always following Lemon's management of the staff in later innings. He may have a long term outlook I ain't seeing and some pitch count or some other analytics I'm not aware of. I have gotten irritated a couple of times when he's been slow to get someone up in the pen. He could also still be trying to figure a few things out with the staff. IMO, overall staff management is decent tho.

A question I sorta had, but it might be cause Lemon wants him to focus on maximizing his RHP ability is ... if Jurrangelo can pitch both ways, why not switch arms when the other team is starting to find their groove with him in later innings. Just a thought I had. He does seem to be better as a righty and Lemon/Parker may be saying let's focus on maximizing that side. Or, and this may have been done before, use him as a reliever in another weekend game with him pitching lefty.

Davis looked good today and has low ERA so he might evolve into the closer. I kinda like submariners for that too, and I think Schuelke might be good there too.

Overall I think we're improving and we need to keep doing that. I ain't too concerned about dominating right now like Arky & KY seem to be, but would like to get warmed up good and then hot going into the postseason.

ETA: And players also don't need to be doing stupid stuff like what Long did last night. That was a baseball play and GA player did nothing wrong there.

Gotta quit the stupid stuff. Getting picked off at 2nd, Huge Sak's blunder today, Long last night ... stupid stuff.

[Coach34]

Why can't we have a "standard" of top 16? We are too 16 in history, facilities, fan support, coaching salary, recruiting, and probably are near it in NIL.

Because its something we cant accomplish even half the time

Something cant be a "standard" if you dont do it 3/4 of the time. Thats the standard you WANT- but its not reality

[the_real_MSU_is_us]

Because its something we cant accomplish even half the time

Something cant be a "standard" if you dont do it 3/4 of the time. Thats the standard you WANT- but its not reality

You're mixing up "minimum acceptable performance" with "standard". A "standard" is what you expect to hit on average. A "minimum acceptable performance" means you fire the coach any season they don't hit it.

Nobody is saying to fire a baseball coach when he doesn't host. We're saying that over say, a 3 year period, the "standard" should average top 16. You can view that as a "regular season" (ie host a regional) or "post season" ie make a Super. That's what Todd sets as his standard. Most of us will forgive a non-host regular season if they perform in the postseason, and understand that baseball is a fickle game and some postseason underperformances will happen so a Super isn't always going to happen even if you host.

You know what's NOT at any "standard"? a 3 year period consisting of missing Hoover, missing Hoover, and being decent but struggling to make the tournament at all. That's below ANY "state standard" you could ask for. Even if you disagree with whatever you want to pretend I demand, you can't possibly say that in Lemos "put up or shut up" season a to the last weekend nailbiter to make the tournament is "putting up".

You're setting up EXACTLY what I feared would happen. I said Lemo would do just enough to make the tournament, people like you would say that's improvement and we should keep Lemo, and we'd waste yet another year with a sub par coach. You're already trying to attack the "standard" so you can say barely sneaking into the tourny is fine.

BUt please, tell me: What does State lack that prevents top 16 from being a reasonable average? Tell me, do we not pay top 16 coaching income? Do we not have top 16 facilities? What am I missing that weighs us down?

[Coach34]

But we arent struggling to make the Tournament this year- we are about to be ranked inside the Top 20. U know who is struggling to make the tournament? LSU and Mississippi

[the_real_MSU_is_us]

But we arent struggling to make the Tournament this year- we are about to be ranked inside the Top 20. U know who is struggling to make the tournament? LSU and Mississippi

Our RPI is in the high 40s and we need 14 SEC wins. Half the famed conference is ranked ahead of us. Yes it'll be a battle to get to the tournament unless our hitters get hot and stay hot or we find a stud 3rd pitcher