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Thread: Confidence level

  1. #121
    Senior Member Coach34's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by the_real_MSU_is_us View Post
    Our RPI is in the high 40s and we need 14 SEC wins. Half the famed conference is ranked ahead of us. Yes it'll be a battle to get to the tournament unless our hitters get hot and stay hot or we find a stud 3rd pitcher
    After the next 2 series we will be a borderline 1 seed unless we choke them away. We arent struggling to make the Tourney
    Walk like the King or walk like you don't care who the King is

  2. #122
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    Quote Originally Posted by Coach34 View Post
    After the next 2 series we will be a borderline 1 seed unless we choke them away. We arent struggling to make the Tourney
    2 years ago 2 SEC teams with 17 and 18 SEC wins and RPIs in the top 20 didn't get to host.

    We are a long way off from hosting.

  3. #123
    Senior Member Todd4State's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Quaoarsking View Post
    I think a team that hosts (especially as a top 8 seed) and loses its Regional generally had a better season that a 3 seed who happens to win a Regional.

    Now maybe there are a few specific examples where this isn't clear, and if that 3 seed goes deep into Omaha, maybe not. But baseball is too random and fickle to let one bad weekend derail a season. I prefer to judge the quality of the season on SEC record, RPI (I know, it's not a great system but it's what we have), and what seed we get. Making a deep run to Omaha is awesome, but I'm going to be more comfortable with Lemonis going forward if we host and lose than if we don't host, but lose in the Supers.
    In this era most regionals are at least two mid majors and then one other ACC, old PAC 12, or Big 12 team. Sure there are exceptions like 2018 when it was MSU, Florida State, and Oklahoma in a regional but unless you're in THAT one my example is what you're looking at in general.

    In other words regionals are a lot of times easier than what we face on a typical SEC weekend.

    So yeah- if we have a 40 win season and then get knocked out in a regional it's a major disappointment. Or 35 wins.

    The ONLY way I would ever somewhat excuse a regional knockout is if we were to win the SEC or the SEC Championship.

  4. #124
    Senior Member Todd4State's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Quaoarsking View Post
    2 years ago 2 SEC teams with 17 and 18 SEC wins and RPIs in the top 20 didn't get to host.

    We are a long way off from hosting.
    Our RPI probably needs to be 16 or higher because recently that's how the committee has been assigning them. We have work to do. Closer to time we'll see if there are any weird outliers but losing to Central Arkansas really hurt us badly. We have zero margin for error as far as hosting.

  5. #125
    Senior Member Todd4State's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Coach34 View Post
    After the next 2 series we will be a borderline 1 seed unless we choke them away. We arent struggling to make the Tourney
    I'm guessing our most likely path is to sweep Ole Miss, Auburn, and Mizzou which would put us at 15, beat Alabama 2/3, and win a game against Vandy. And don't lose to UAB, Alcorn (Lemonis should be fired for that), Memphis, and the Governor's Cup. I'm assuming we won't play North Alabama. Then we have Arkansas who will be tough on the road.

    That's going to be really difficult especially for our team which seems to make gross mistakes at times and has a major incident with SEC officials every other week. And we can't figure out who our closer is.

  6. #126
    Tha Winnah! ScoobaDawg's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Coach34 View Post
    After the next 2 series we will be a borderline 1 seed unless we choke them away. We arent struggling to make the Tourney
    Going into todays game we were 51 in rpi per Boyds.
    Au was 25, UM was 30. Really need to go 5-1 vs those two. 4-2 at worse.

  7. #127
    Senior Member Todd4State's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ScoobaDawg View Post
    Going into todays game we were 51 in rpi per Boyds.
    Au was 25, UM was 30. Really need to go 5-1 vs those two. 4-2 at worse.
    I think we're 47 now based on the site I use. Florida losing to Mizzou really hurt us in addition to us losing to UCA.

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