With the 4/27/11 system ?
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With the 4/27/11 system ?
People were talking about this one with the same kind of hype. Still going to keep my head on a swivel. Thanks again!
Not butting in to yall's conversation but there seems to be a lot more hype now ABOUT EVERYTHING than there was 9 years ago. LOL
Easter 2020 is my new benchmark.
The people doing that are either trying to increase clicks by scaring people or just clueless about how bad 4/27/11 was.
Here are the facts as they present themselves now.
This event will probably end up as a moderate risk day from the SPC. The environment is setting up to allow the formation of multiple discrete to semi discrete supercells...some of which will produce tornadoes. A few of those have the potential to be long tracked and violent. Additionally, the strongest storms could also produce hail up to tennis ball size and straight line winds up to 70-80mph.
The 4/27/11 outbreak saw 360 confirmed tornadoes over a three day period with multiple ef-4 and ef-5 ratings. The severe parameters in place that day were all off the charts. Not just one or two parameters...every mother17ing one of them. There was nothing you could point to that said that factor might limit tornado potential that day. It was PlayStation level numbers. This Wednesday is the type event you see a couple times a year in the US. Very similar to this past Sunday in TX. To get something close to similar to 2011 you have to go back to 1974.
That said, this Wednesday is looking very dangerous. The environment is setting to produce dangerous weather. If you go under a warning take it seriously and assume it to be worse case scenario until the storm has passed. There could be multiple rounds of storms so don't let your guard down once a storm or two passes. Don't try to ride out these storms in a mobile home. Plan now on what you will do if a warning is used for your area. If your plan is to take cover in a closet, make sure that closet is cleaned out now. If you know a friend with a storm shelter, offer to bring over a couple pizzas and a two liter of coke and spend the afternoon with them.
There's a guy on TalkWeather, Fred Gossage, who apparently is a TV meterorologist somewhere (maybe Florence, AL?, but I don't think they have any TV stations based there) who's getting excited about what's going to happen Wednesday. I just checked in there today - haven't been on that site in years and it's changed a lot. There seems to be a bit of chest-beating on that site now.
Latest NWS forecast discussion and GFS has most of the severe WX along the I20 corridor up to and not including Rocketdogs house but leaving
TUSK ok. DD you should be ok. Just alot of rain
Not sure exactly where you are located, but there have been some signals the threat area could expand further west. The day 2 update overnight will be highly anticipated. Will the area expand? Will it be upgraded to a moderate risk? What will be the tornado threat?
A moderate risk has now been issued for the areas in the Orange shading. Multiple rounds of severe storms could affect the state with the main round starting around noon and then ending about midnight over in alabama. Parameters still favor discrete to semi discrete supercells producing multiple tornadoes. A few of those do have the potential to be long tracked and violent. I'm still not completely settled in where I'm staging but strongly considering being around Greenwood late morning and then just seeing where storms develop. One issue which may make chasing hard is that these storms may be HP (high precipitation) supercells causing the tornadoes to be rain wrapped. They'll also be moving 40-55mph. So if you go under a warning don't go out in your backyard trying to see it. You may not know it's there until it throws your grill though your dining room window and peels your roof off.
https://climate.cod.edu/data/text/im...atest.png?v=16
Well the 98/84 corridor is heating up this morning. So DD and CC need to be on the lookout