Things still far from certain, but next Thursday trying to get that vibe to it. Especially south of I-20.
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Things still far from certain, but next Thursday trying to get that vibe to it. Especially south of I-20.
damn your depressing....need to block your weather posts***. i've seen enough bad stuff this past year to last me 2 lifetimes. thanks for your updates.
Thanks brother!!
Was about to ask you about this. According to GFS this will affect most of the state from the coast to the Tenn Border/
Just damn.
Are we going to get any colder weather out of this front or is spring really here for good?
I really appreciate these weather threads.
Keep an eye on TOMORROW! It?s going to be a beautiful day. White clouds and sun shining. We will also be completing a sweep of LSU.
Well if your on the coast and you haven't fixed your roofs yet you had better hurry.
SVD, I know this is not a very sophisticated question but is this starting to feel like it may be an early spring (if there is such a thing) ?
Not really. Our spring severe weather season kicks off 3/1 and goes through about the first 10 or so days in May so we went 16 days into our severe season before our first real event. What it may be is an active severe weather spring where we have above normal severe threats. We are in a La Ni?a pattern which favors an active spring severe season in Dixie Alley.
Our season peaks in late April here. In fact, the most active day for tornadoes in MS is 4/27. That day has seen more tornadoes than any other day in our history. But temps and everything for the most part have been right in queue. I remember last year we had red maples blooming out in early February.
Jackson NWS now getting on board for Thursday:
Global model guidance and their respective ensemble members have come into agreement on the potential for a more significant severe
weather episode on Thursday as a vigorous negatively tilted shortwave trough swings through the Lower Mississippi Valley while a
deepening surface low lifts from northeast Texas and through central Arkansas. A robust warm sector will be in place across much of the
area with dew points well into the upper 60s to low 70s. Low-level mass response to the deepening low will foster a strengthening 50-
60kt low-level jet that will overspread the warm sector. Surface-based instability of 2000-2500 J/kg juxtaposed with 300-400 m2/s2 of
0-1km SRH and plentiful deep-layer shear oriented off the initiating boundary will support an environment favorable for all modes of severe weather.
For the Coast we are going to get plastered Wed and Thrus, 7 inches of rain for both days and numerous TSTORMS. Rocket needs to watchout Fri.
Any updates?
Latest model trends are continuing to show a potentially significant severe weather event Thursday. Raw model numbers are actually looking worse than this past Wednesday, although that in no way means a higher end event is expected. Even this close it's still too far out to tell. By tomorrow evening the HRRR will start weighing in on the matter and then we can start trying to nail down the finer details. Target area has been fluctuating some with the models but right now I'm saying between Hattiesburg and Cleveland you need to be paying particular attention. Models the last few runs seem to be trending towards a SW to NE corridor from Vicksburg to Columbus as being the favored area.