Wednesday Severe Threat

Another severe threat may be unfolding for parts of the state for Wednesday into Wednesday night. There's still some uncertainty as to how significant it may be, but potential could be there for a big event.

We know wind shear will be strong and veering with height which will create long looping hodographs favorable for storm rotation. What is still uncertain is how much instability will be in place prior to the cold front arriving. If ample instability does find its way into the state then the atmosphere will be primed for a significant severe weather event with discrete supercells forming out in the warm sector ahead of the cold front. If it looks to be less then the threat will correspondingly decrease and be primarily limited to a squall line right along the front. The below graphic is from the SPC this morning. Jackson NWS takes the threat north to and east to include the Highway 82 corridor. Hopefully, the details will work themselves out in the next 24-36 hours.

Some of us with our chase team are already making preparations to be out monitoring the storms if it looks to be a significant event. Our social media guy will be making updates on our Patreon site and any live streams can also be found there at Patreon.com/nmscas. Since the potential is there not only for this event Wednesday, but for subsequent events as well over the next 5-10 days, you may find a couple of videos on our YouTube channel of benefit. Particularly the one dealing with taking shelter during severe weather. It's link is:

https://youtu.be/Gpp-L0uKnJk

A lot of you subscribe to our YouTube channel and we greatly appreciate it. And some of you may be Patreon supporters of ours and we greatly appreciate that, too.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/partners/ou...png?1674020714

I'll be in the Covington/Hammond Louisiana area Tuesday night and Wednesday. Driving to Houma Wednesday afternoon. What's it look like in south Louisiana?

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Originally Posted by DownwardDawg

I'll be in the Covington/Hammond Louisiana area Tuesday night and Wednesday. Driving to Houma Wednesday afternoon. What's it look like in south Louisiana?

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As of right now not too bad. That area will have more instability but quite as good wind fields.

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Originally Posted by starkvegasdawg

As of right now not too bad. That area will have more instability but quite as good wind fields.

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Thanks brother!

SVD, just curious about your updated weather forecast for tomorrow. Thanks, and as always, if you chase, be safe.

This damn rain is really getting in the way of my construction project.

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Originally Posted by Dawg_Lover

SVD, just curious about your updated weather forecast for tomorrow. Thanks, and as always, if you chase, be safe.

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I'll be honest, I get less and less impressed with this system every model run. The it looks like it is going to have a hard time getting moisture and instability into the state. The SPC has maintained a slight risk for a lot of the state, so they may expect more instability to work in than currently projected. If it does, then it could still be an active day. I'm just far from convinced right now. The system for next Wednesday currently looks like the best shot for severe weather.

Wish I could get a underground bunker constructed at my house. I always have to hide in the bathtub with a mattress over me. The government should help people finance one of those or even pay for a good portion of it.

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Originally Posted by SpaceBully

Wish I could get an underground bunker constructed at my house. I always have to hide in the bathtub with a mattress over me. The government should help people finance one of those or even pay for a good portion of it.

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They actually will with a catch. Your area has to have been impacted by a tornado within a certain timeframe. Don't ask me to make that make sense, but once you have had a tornado within a certain distance from your house (I don't know what said distance is), FEMA will issue grants for people to get shelters...or at least they used to. I know after 4/27/11 a lot of people were able to get help on shelters through that program. Let me see what I can find out and I'll post it in this thread. I would dearly love to have one at my house, too, for my family to shelter while I'm out chasing.

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Originally Posted by SpaceBully

Wish I could get a underground bunker constructed at my house. I always have to hide in the bathtub with a mattress over me. The government should help people finance one of those or even pay for a good portion of it.

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Sounds like a true conservative to me.

My understanding is they have a program to subsidize a shelter but your house has to be under a certain value. I bought one ofnthe aboveground concrete shelters because my kids and grandchildren all live close enough to use it.

Here is the link to the last one they had.

https://www.msema.org/individual-safe-room-program/

This is the MEMA (Mississippi Emergency Management Agency) Individual Safe Room Program link.
As you can see, the latest funded program ended Oct. 31st, and as far as I could find, I believe if any had been subsequently issued, it would show up here.
For those in different states, search your Emergency Management Agencies Individual Safe Room Program page.
Since they were recent events, I would think areas around Selma, AL, as well as Kentucky, will soon have programs open, if not already.

https://www.msema.org/individual-safe-room-program/

You might also search the FEMA website for possible additional information.

I think it used to be if you had tornado damage in your county, but anybody who had actual tornado damage had first priority, but I may be wrong. After I made application it was about 2 years before I was approved (or something like that). I was able to get a safe room installed in my garage after some concrete work, etc.

Prior to 2004, a family I know, in the Soso, Jasper county area, had a heavy concrete bunker installed into a hill behind their home. A contracter working in their area installing the bunkers through a state or federal funded program knocked on their door one day, explained the program, then asked if they were interested. Once they said yes, he helped them apply. Then, once approved, he came back and completed the work.
It is large enough to comfortably hold at least a dozen people, with a built in bench the length of the shelter. Best my memory serves, it was appx 6 to 8 feet deep. That family has since used it numerous times, including Katrina. It has been a literal life saver.

A golf buddy had a garage safe room installed back in November or December, and used it during the storms last week for the first time. Nothing came near him but the shelter was there to provide protection. January tornadoes here not normal at all. Don't know if all these winter storms are a sign of things to come, but he could well make use of the shelter later on in April and May.

When I was growing up, on a trip to the country it wasn't unusual to see storm shelters built into hills (or maybe the hill was built over the storm shelter).

For today's weather, we have fog this morning but the Nebraska is inundated with snow. No mention of severe in our forecast but we'll see how things are south and west of us later on. It doesn't look as severe as the last system.