Hurricane potential the next 10 days....i usually don't post until i get notice of

deployment. But got an email to get bags packed and ready. There is a development starting 700 miles east-southeast of the
southern Windward Islands. This has the projected path of entering the Gulf. Formation chance before entering the Gulf through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. where it will head from there right now is only a guess.

All Dawgs keep your eyes on this one. the info i have gotten from the DOD has been very accurate the past 2 years.


GTHOM!

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Originally Posted by 99jc

deployment. But got an email to get bags packed and ready. There is a development starting 700 miles east-southeast of the
southern Windward Islands. This has the projected path of entering the Gulf. Formation chance before entering the Gulf through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. where it will head from there right now is only a guess.

All Dawgs keep your eyes on this one. the info i have gotten from the DOD has been very accurate the past 2 years.


GTHOM!

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I think the storm you are mentioning is likely going to hit Central America. At least that's what the majority of models and the NHC have. The one behind that one probably has a better chance to get into the gulf but still low end chances at the moment for development.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5

you may be right i am no meteorologist just reader of emails. i know the DOD thinks something is going to happen just getting us prepared.

Yeah, the high odds one is looking to bitch slap (it's a technical term) Nicaragua. This big damn ridge of high pressure that's had us baking should keep it from turning north.

I'll be at the beach. Fun in the sun, Hurricane party, whatever.

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Originally Posted by starkvegasdawg

Yeah, the high odds one is looking to bitch slap (it's a technical term) Nicaragua. This big damn ridge of high pressure that's had us baking should keep it from turning north.

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I am not going to Nicaragua....screw them

Official track of the tropical wave with the best chance of being a named system takes into southern Nicaragua as a minimal hurricane. The one to watch is coming in behind it and may take a more northwesterly track bringing it into the Gulf of Mexico. Currently only a 20% chance of development over the next 5 days so nothing to be concerned about yet. But it needs to be noted that Gulf water temps are running above normal and in the mid 80's to low 90's. So if a tropical disturbance can get over that sauna-like water in a conducive environment then it could intensify quickly. Just something to remember as our tropical season unfolds. And a reminder we are in the very early stages of hurricane season. It doesn't peak until around September 10th so still a long ways to go.


https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/xgtwo/two_atl_5d0.png

If it hits the gulf gas will be 7-8 per gallon

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Originally Posted by WhiskeyPirate

If it hits the gulf gas will be 7-8 per gallon

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That's my biggest fear.

I have reservations for the Destin area the week of July 11. Bet the house the 2nd one develops and comes through.

Gloom despair and agony on me....if it wasn't for bad luck ...

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Originally Posted by Maroonthirteen

I have reservations for the Destin area the week of July 11. Bet the house the 2nd one develops and comes through.

Gloom despair and agony on me....if it wasn't for bad luck ...

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I recognize those lyrics ... wonder how many others on here do

Quote:

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Originally Posted by starkvegasdawg

Official track of the tropical wave with the best chance of being a named system takes into southern Nicaragua as a minimal hurricane. The one to watch is coming in behind it and may take a more northwesterly track bringing it into the Gulf of Mexico. Currently only a 20% chance of development over the next 5 days so nothing to be concerned about yet. But it needs to be noted that Gulf water temps are running above normal and in the mid 80's to low 90's. So if a tropical disturbance can get over that sauna-like water in a conducive environment then it could intensify quickly. Just something to remember as our tropical season unfolds. And a reminder we are in the very early stages of hurricane season. It doesn't peak until around September 10th so still a long ways to go.


https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/xgtwo/two_atl_5d0.png

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So the warm water helps push it away but it it does get over it, that fuels it?

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Originally Posted by TheLostDawg

So the warm water helps push it away but it it does get over it, that fuels it?

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Water temp has nothing to do with the track. That's controlled by other high and low pressure system. But if a tropical system does move over extremely warm water like the gulf has and the upper air environment is conducive for strengthening then it could intensify quickly.

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Originally Posted by FISHDAWG

I recognize those lyrics ... wonder how many others on here do

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Lol. I sing it all the time!! Great times. When we could all laugh at each other.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Maroonthirteen

I have reservations for the Destin area the week of July 11. Bet the house the 2nd one develops and comes through.

Gloom despair and agony on me....if it wasn't for bad luck ...

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I’ll be in Destin from the 14-20

Leaving Thursday for a week on Jost Van Dyke, British Virgin Islands. That 2nd storm has me a little concerned. What are the experts thoughts? Are we in the clear? Thanks in advance.

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Originally Posted by Bigedawg

Leaving Thursday for a week on Jost Van Dyke, British Virgin Islands. That 2nd storm has me a little concerned. What are the experts thoughts? Are we in the clear? Thanks in advance.

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As of right now wouldn't be worried for any more than some rain. If it develops it will be slow to do so.

Thanks for the info! I can deal with a little rain. Nothing a painkiller or 6 can't remedy.