Apparently, Mississippi has the highest hospitalization rate in the country.
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Apparently, Mississippi has the highest hospitalization rate in the country.
In MS, you've only been getting tested if you've got like 10 symptoms including a high fever. That's why we've been so high. We've started slowly backing that down, and that rate will drop when we do.
If you go to the hospital and visit the burn unit to do a study on how dangerous fire is you would probably come to the assumption that fire is one of the most dangerous things out there and we should not use anything that contains fire. Why? Because out of everyone that was severly burned by fire at leasy 50% are hospitalized and about 10% die. Therefore, fire has a 10% death rate. Now, we know (assume) that thousands of people burn themselves slightly every day (hot skillet, candles, being dumb, etc.) but the vast majority of them don't visit a doctor for it. It's not worth it.
It's much the same way with the Corona Virus. Our denominator in this equation is pre-loaded. This is why the annual mortality rate for the flu is so low because CDC assumes (and rightly so) that 80%-90% of people that have the flu don't actually go to the doctor. If you look at the CDC's seasonal flu numbers from last year (again they are just assuming numbers) then you will see that flu hospitilization carries with it a 7% mortality rate. That's right. 7% mortality rate. Now...when you factor in their assumption that approximately 35.5 million people have the flu every year that mortality rate drops tremendously (to around .5%)
There is a lot of research out there suggesting that the number of corona viruses cases are 10x's greater than reported...conservatively. This number is derived from reported R0 values and reported growth rates of the virus and assuming a Nov. 1 patient zero date. This is the same estimates that the CDC uses to derive annual influenza numbers. This estimation would leave the Corona Virus death rate at approximately .5%.
That's not to say this virus isn't dangerous...it VERY much is. Primarily because there is no herd immunity or vaccine yet. It will spread quickly until herd immunity is achieved and then it will go away for a year or two until it mutates sufficiently to bypass the antibodies it produced initially. Hopefully there is a vaccine by then.
Anyone feel like fact checking this?
https://i.postimg.cc/3xDtZ7hH/33-BD1...-B66-BC537.jpg
Saw it on Facebook, so you know...
Louisiana 2700 new cases since yesterday
Your first paragraph accounts for those sick enough to get a test and, 4 times that number, those who have symptoms but not bad enough to get tested. It doesn't at all account for those who have gotten the virus but have no symptoms, which we know is a large number.
I think if everybody in America were tested, all 330 million, there would be way, way more than 1 million who test positive or who have had the virus already. Probably 1 million just in New York.
Currently Louisiana has approximately 7,000 positive infected (out of 46,000 tests). Based on R0 values and spread rates (based on almost a dozen different studies across the world) they actually should have about 70,000 currently infected individuals across the state that are asymptomatic or symptomatic.
Again, based on reported R0 value and spread rates then all American's should have had it by now...19 times a piece...assuming the virus entered the US with one person on January 1, 2020. So this means that either: multiple studies on R0 values and growth rates are incorrect, we are doing DAMN good as a country at social distancing, or this virus produces severe symptoms in only a small fraction of the total population that it is introduced to. These are very literally the only logical conclusions.
GA governor just yesterday said he learned Tuesday that the virus can be spread prior to someone demonstrating symptoms.....like no 17n shit man. That has been established 17n fact by even the cdc since the first God damn week of February. What the hell man.
It's important to note that you are starting to hear health care officials hedge their assumptions when saying big numbers here recently. Again, it's still a very dangerous virus. Think about this. If the seasonal flue kills roughly 60,000 in the US every year and then you drop this on top of the US you are doubling or tripling deaths related to viruses/flus in one year. That is a lot of AVOIDABLE deaths. We need to maintain the social distancing, quarnatine, and shelter in place methods until AT LEAST the end of April.
I would imagine that by the time this is over with both flu and corona will have taken close to the same numbers which align with what Fauci is saying. Approx. 100,000 individuals
Without social distancing and quarantine that number would be much higher due to the fact that there is no vaccine or herd immunity. But overall cases would be much higher due to the fact that many more indivuduals would get this virus than normally get the flu. Imagine the seasonal flu without a vaccine. It doesn't make the seasonal flu MORE dangerous what it does is allow the flu to get to more people. More people = higher death toll (not higher death rate). The majority of those 100,000 individuals that die from the flu every year die from...guess what...pneumonia. Both the seasonal flu and corona virus are very dangerous diseases. The advantage that corona has over the flu is that it can get into more of the population due to lack of herd/vaccine immunity.