Clutch Hitting '21 vs '22

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05-17-2022, 08:34 AM
BrunswickDawg

Clutch Hitting '21 vs '22

I finally found a good source for a little more advanced SEC hitting stats - so I figured I'd post some interesting things about our offense in SEC Play over the past 2 seasons.
You can check my work here: chrome-extension://efaidnbmnnnibpcajpcglclefindmkaj/http://a.espncdn.com/sec/baseball/2021/seconly.pdf and chrome-extension://efaidnbmnnnibpcajpcglclefindmkaj/http://a.espncdn.com/sec/baseball/2022/seconly.pdf

Looking at standard stats, our offense has been pretty good

AVG is up from .265 to .272, bumping us from 7th in the SEC in '21 to 5th in '22
Runs are down a bit (with 3 to play) 174 to 157
We will end up with more hits 274 to 269 - getting us from 5th last year to 2nd.
HR improved drastically from 31 to 49, bumping us from T11 to 4th.
RBIs will be close, 161 to 149 - middle of the pack both seasons.
Total Bases went up drastically from 428 to 470, getting us from 7 to 2nd, as is SLG% going from .414 to .476 and 8th to 2nd.
Walks are close - 114 to 101, but K's have gone from fewest in the SEC (213) to 4th (250).
OBP is roughly the same - .353 to .351

At first glance I'd say the offense at least held it's own.
But, then you get to the more advanced stats

W/ Runners on Base, we both season are similar - .271(144/555) to .266 (130/480) - But we had 75 more hitting opportunities with runners on base last year.
W/ Bases Loaded, we dropped from .297 to .243 - but, each season had 37 AB with the Bases loaded and the difference in AVG is only 2 hits (11 vs. 9)
W/RISP wasn't as bad a drop as I think most believe - going from .271 to .261 - We went from 79/291 to 72/276 - similar # of opportunities and results.
W/ 2 Outs, we've actually hit a little better than last season in SEC play - going from .239 (81/339) to .263 (83/315) - and produced more 2 Out RBI's (47 vs. 56).
We also have done similarly well in advancing runners with outs, doing so 79 times last season vs. 67 to date.
And, both seasons we were 2nd in the SEC in Runners LOB - 236 and 219.

Where was the major difference you ask?
Hitting with a Runner on 3rd and Less Than 2 Outs. In '21 led the SEC at .662 (47/71) - almost .100 the league average of .568 in that situation.
This year we are .524 (33/63), 10th in the league. That is over 70 points below the league average of .595. So not only have we done considerably worse, the league as a whole has done better. Kentucky leads the league this season at an
incredible .762, followed by Mizzou (.685), UF (.683), A&M (.681) all hitting higher than we did last season.

Overall, I'd say our hitting has been a little better this season, and "clutch" hitting has been better than most realize but compared to last season it is definitely down. Our Achilles has been getting guys in from 3rd - which is a critical opportunity, and frankly gives the other team a lot of confidence when they can hold you in that situation.
05-17-2022, 08:43 AM
Coach34

excellent work
05-17-2022, 09:23 AM
Activated Alpha

Thank you for this. I've been looking for stats to see how we perform with bases loaded. Wonder if we could even further break it down by how many outs because it always seems that no matter if they're 0 outs or 2 outs we never score on bases loaded opportunities. Almost like it's our kryptonite.
05-17-2022, 09:41 AM
confucius say

Great job. Hitting could be better of course, but it isn't the major issue. That's why I don't totally get the other thread. I may be in the minority but I hope gotro stays.

Please don't do pitching. We're depressed enough without seeing that, lol
05-17-2022, 09:44 AM
confucius say

Our sec only hitting stats are almost the same as TN. More hits actually. More doubles. They have 57 HR to our 49. Strike outs are about the same.

And we are fielding at a .983 clip!

It's just pitching. Woof.
05-17-2022, 09:48 AM
BrunswickDawg

Quote:

Originally Posted by Activated Alpha

Thank you for this. I've been looking for stats to see how we perform with bases loaded. Wonder if we could even further break it down by how many outs because it always seems that no matter if they're 0 outs or 2 outs we never score on bases loaded opportunities. Almost like it's our kryptonite.

Honestly, I'd say focusing on bases loaded situations is a statistically insignificant exercise. It's .037 of our At-Bats this season and .035 last season. League-wide it accounts for .03 at-bats.
Is it beneficial to be good at it? Yes. But it just doesn't account for much overall. Looking at RISP or just with Runners On Base is a better gauge of success because it happens far more often.
05-17-2022, 09:56 AM
BrunswickDawg

Quote:

Originally Posted by confucius say

Our sec only hitting stats are almost the same as TN. More hits actually. More doubles. They have 57 HR to our 49. Strike outs are about the same.

And we are fielding at a .983 clip!

It's just pitching. Woof.

Our pitching is actually why I think the perception is that our "clutch" hitting is so bad. When your staff gives up over 7 runs a game, you are ALWAYS needing to score. It hurts more when you are only averaging 6 runs a game in scoring. It makes the missed opportunities jump out at you - regardless of how you are doing statistically in run scoring situations. We actually scored the same per game this season and last season (5.8 per game), but only gave up 4.9 per game last season. That 3 run a game jump in runs allowed is HOLY SHIT BAD!

When you think about what we lost in offensive production with TA and Rowdey, we actually did a pretty good Money Ball job in replacing their overall production statistically due to Cumbest, Hines, and Yeager's combined work.
05-17-2022, 09:58 AM
Johnson85

Quote:

Originally Posted by BrunswickDawg

I finally found a good source for a little more advanced SEC hitting stats - so I figured I'd post some interesting things about our offense in SEC Play over the past 2 seasons.
You can check my work here: chrome-extension://efaidnbmnnnibpcajpcglclefindmkaj/http://a.espncdn.com/sec/baseball/2021/seconly.pdf and chrome-extension://efaidnbmnnnibpcajpcglclefindmkaj/http://a.espncdn.com/sec/baseball/2022/seconly.pdf

Looking at standard stats, our offense has been pretty good

AVG is up from .265 to .272, bumping us from 7th in the SEC in '21 to 5th in '22
Runs are down a bit (with 3 to play) 174 to 157
We will end up with more hits 274 to 269 - getting us from 5th last year to 2nd.
HR improved drastically from 31 to 49, bumping us from T11 to 4th.
RBIs will be close, 161 to 149 - middle of the pack both seasons.
Total Bases went up drastically from 428 to 470, getting us from 7 to 2nd, as is SLG% going from .414 to .476 and 8th to 2nd.
Walks are close - 114 to 101, but K's have gone from fewest in the SEC (213) to 4th (250).
OBP is roughly the same - .353 to .351

At first glance I'd say the offense at least held it's own.
But, then you get to the more advanced stats

W/ Runners on Base, we both season are similar - .271(144/555) to .266 (130/480) - But we had 75 more hitting opportunities with runners on base last year.
W/ Bases Loaded, we dropped from .297 to .243 - but, each season had 37 AB with the Bases loaded and the difference in AVG is only 2 hits (11 vs. 9)
W/RISP wasn't as bad a drop as I think most believe - going from .271 to .261 - We went from 79/291 to 72/276 - similar # of opportunities and results.
W/ 2 Outs, we've actually hit a little better than last season in SEC play - going from .239 (81/339) to .263 (83/315) - and produced more 2 Out RBI's (47 vs. 56).
We also have done similarly well in advancing runners with outs, doing so 79 times last season vs. 67 to date.
And, both seasons we were 2nd in the SEC in Runners LOB - 236 and 219.

Where was the major difference you ask?
Hitting with a Runner on 3rd and Less Than 2 Outs. In '21 led the SEC at .662 (47/71) - almost .100 the league average of .568 in that situation.
This year we are .524 (33/63), 10th in the league. That is over 70 points below the league average of .595. So not only have we done considerably worse, the league as a whole has done better. Kentucky leads the league this season at an
incredible .762, followed by Mizzou (.685), UF (.683), A&M (.681) all hitting higher than we did last season.

Overall, I'd say our hitting has been a little better this season, and "clutch" hitting has been better than most realize but compared to last season it is definitely down. Our Achilles has been getting guys in from 3rd - which is a critical opportunity, and frankly gives the other team a lot of confidence when they can hold you in that situation.

That is surprising. I didn't think our hitting was quite that good last year and thought it would be worse this year.

I'd be curious as to what our hitting stats would look like if you compared the first and second half of last year to the first and second half of this year. I feel like we were better than last year at the start of this season and worse than last year at the end of the season. But not sure how reliable that impression is as we aren't nearly as bad statistically as I would have thought this year.
05-17-2022, 10:43 AM
StarkVegasSteve

This is outstanding. I was surprised that clutch hitting was as good as that. Really hammers home the point that our bullpen is the reason we are losing, which provides a little more hope for next year with some portal help. Need to cut down on the Ks though.
05-17-2022, 10:59 AM
State82

That is some really good work Brunswick. Nice job.
05-17-2022, 12:34 PM
BrunswickDawg

Quote:

Originally Posted by Johnson85

That is surprising. I didn't think our hitting was quite that good last year and thought it would be worse this year.

I'd be curious as to what our hitting stats would look like if you compared the first and second half of last year to the first and second half of this year. I feel like we were better than last year at the start of this season and worse than last year at the end of the season. But not sure how reliable that impression is as we aren't nearly as bad statistically as I would have thought this year.

This is from memory - but I'm pretty sure we started SEC play last season very slowly. I remember we were hitting in the .230s around the mid point and there being several posts about "timely hitting has bailed us out, we aren't going to make any noise post season playing like this." This season we seem to have been more consistent between first half and second half - but the pitching has gotten worse not better. But, yes, we were on fire the second half of SEC play last year.
05-17-2022, 12:58 PM
sandjunky

Last year we had clutch pitching
817K to 266bb - 40-1 when leading after 6

2022
553k to 245bb - 260 ish less strikeouts - 18-6 when leafing after 6

Didn?t have many leads after 6
05-17-2022, 01:41 PM
Tbonewannabe

Quote:

Originally Posted by BrunswickDawg

Honestly, I'd say focusing on bases loaded situations is a statistically insignificant exercise. It's .037 of our At-Bats this season and .035 last season. League-wide it accounts for .03 at-bats.
Is it beneficial to be good at it? Yes. But it just doesn't account for much overall. Looking at RISP or just with Runners On Base is a better gauge of success because it happens far more often.

It probably feels worse because we let the other team get out of a bases loaded no outs situation and don't score. The next inning is almost always a shit the bed moment in the game where we were up by one or tied only to be down by 4 the next inning. I appreciate every player that puts on the Maroon and White but this bullpen is about as bad as I have seen. It is about as bad as that first year that Cohen had all those guys quit and he started pitching whoever he could get just to throw strikes.

The crazy thing is, this pitching staff has a lot of talent but just can't seem to pitch most of the time. That is the crazy thing, they are bad more often than good. Losing Stone Simmons, Stinnett, and Auger were the breaking points for this bullpen. Also having to start Preston Johnson (who is doing a phenomenal job eating innings), made us lose our long relief guy. We lost some guys and the next man up hasn't stepped up outside of Brandon Smith and Preston Johnson. I have enjoyed watching those two guys pitch and Cade Smith and KC Hunt develop. Pico and Hunter Hines have been nice surprises as freshmen.
05-17-2022, 02:26 PM
Randolph Dupree

Quote:

Originally Posted by confucius say

Our sec only hitting stats are almost the same as TN. More hits actually. More doubles. They have 57 HR to our 49. Strike outs are about the same.

And we are fielding at a .983 clip!

It's just pitching. Woof.

Know who coaches the infield? GoTro. Don't be surprised if he stays. The rumors make sense and he may bolt but don't be shocked if he sticks around. I, for one, hope he does.
05-17-2022, 03:15 PM
somebodyshotmypaw

Pitching is killer. I haven't looked, but I'm sure our ERA is up and our opponent's batting average is up versus last year. Would be interested on looking at walks allowed also.

The biggest issue has been the injuries (Sims, Stone Simmons, Stinnett, KC Hunt, Auger). It's hard to lose 5 arms. Can't help but think that the pitching stats would look differently if those guys pitched a complete season.
05-17-2022, 03:44 PM
sandjunky

Quote:

Originally Posted by somebodyshotmypaw

Pitching is killer. I haven't looked, but I'm sure our ERA is up and our opponent's batting average is up versus last year. Would be interested on looking at walks allowed also.

The biggest issue has been the injuries (Sims, Stone Simmons, Stinnett, KC Hunt, Auger). It's hard to lose 5 arms. Can't help but think that the pitching stats would look differently if those guys pitched a complete season.

2021 (68 games) - 4.04 ERA (.220 BA .670 OPS 72HR 77 2B)

2022 (52 games)- 5.68 ERA (.253 BA .800 OPS - 70HR 96 2B)
05-17-2022, 04:01 PM
BrunswickDawg

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tbonewannabe

It probably feels worse because we let the other team get out of a bases loaded no outs situation and don't score. The next inning is almost always a shit the bed moment in the game where we were up by one or tied only to be down by 4 the next inning. I appreciate every player that puts on the Maroon and White but this bullpen is about as bad as I have seen. It is about as bad as that first year that Cohen had all those guys quit and he started pitching whoever he could get just to throw strikes.

The crazy thing is, this pitching staff has a lot of talent but just can't seem to pitch most of the time. That is the crazy thing, they are bad more often than good. Losing Stone Simmons, Stinnett, and Auger were the breaking points for this bullpen. Also having to start Preston Johnson (who is doing a phenomenal job eating innings), made us lose our long relief guy. We lost some guys and the next man up hasn't stepped up outside of Brandon Smith and Preston Johnson. I have enjoyed watching those two guys pitch and Cade Smith and KC Hunt develop. Pico and Hunter Hines have been nice surprises as freshmen.

I think pitching development is where the expanded rosters last year hurt us. We had 24 pitchers last year - and yeah that helped us significantly in our CWS run because we used them well and our key guys were strong through the end.
The down side is we had 14 guys log under 20 innings and that slows development. Of the 8 who pitched more than 20 innings, 3 were drafted and signed, 2 were lost for the season in week 3, 1 has become a head case, and the remaining two went from our best bullpen guys to 2 of our starters. So we essentially lost the majority of experience on the pitching staff.
05-17-2022, 05:16 PM
Todd4State

Outstanding job!

Basically confirms what my eyes are telling me.
05-18-2022, 01:16 PM
RougeDawg

Thanks for the leg work.

Do they have stats on runner scoring from 3rd with less than 2 outs, regardless of average. Last year we seemed to find a way to get that runner in more, with or without getting a hit. The 2021 team was much better situationally moving runners and having productive ABs. Those little things, most times make a huge difference in Ws and Ls.
05-18-2022, 09:18 PM
confucius say

Quote:

Originally Posted by Randolph Dupree

Know who coaches the infield? GoTro. Don't be surprised if he stays. The rumors make sense and he may bolt but don't be shocked if he sticks around. I, for one, hope he does.

Same
05-18-2022, 10:25 PM
Coach34

I'd be surprised if he turns down Tulane. Mempho? Meh- maybe. Holding out for an SEC or ACC job may take awhile to get that shot with no HC'ing experience
05-19-2022, 12:03 AM
Todd4State

Quote:

Originally Posted by Coach34

I'd be surprised if he turns down Tulane. Mempho? Meh- maybe. Holding out for an SEC or ACC job may take awhile to get that shot with no HC'ing experience

If he turns it down it would probably be because they couldn't match what we're paying him now. I know he turned down Rice last year. Tulane though is a much better program IMO. There's a lot of talent in the area plus college baseball is pretty big in Louisiana.

I agree- it would be a good opportunity for him. We'll see what happens with the new scholarship rules too- I have no idea what the American Conference is going to do as far as baseball scholarships.
05-19-2022, 11:15 AM
Randolph Dupree

Quote:

Originally Posted by Coach34

I'd be surprised if he turns down Tulane. Mempho? Meh- maybe. Holding out for an SEC or ACC job may take awhile to get that shot with no HC'ing experience

I agree. If he is offered Tulane and passes the. I think it's safe to say he doesn't want to be a head coach right now; not saying that's the case but I could see it being the case.