I'm an hour north of you.
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I just read a list of essential businesses in MS. After I finished I honestly wondered what was non-essential.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.wlo...outputType=amp
Spare me the stuff about the numbers being wrong blah blah
US was 1.3% a week agoCode:Country Death Rate
United States 2.35%
Italy 11.92%
Spain 9.07%
Germany 1.18%
France 7.08%
United Kingdom 7.98%
Italy was 6.9% 3 weeks ago
Spain was 4% 3 weeks ago
Germany was 0.5% a week ago
France and UK were 3-4% a couple weeks ago
You have to look at the current death rate numbers as "chance of dying when you're sick enough to get tested"
Sure the actual rate will be much lower considering asymptomatic cases. And yes, Dr. Fauci said it's probably less than 1% overall. But I think he had a poor choice of words in that paper. Even a 4% death rate is "closer to the flu" than it is to the 10% from SARS.
But if you're actually showing symptoms from this disease, the death rate is closer to SARS in some places. (And they're all increasing)
My opinion is the documented cases are waaaaaay off, so the death rate is waaaay off. Hell, if you used only the documented cases of the flu, the death rate for the flu would be much, much higher. The CDC estimates how many have/had the flu to calculate death rate. The CDC estimates that between oct 1, 2019, and March 21, 2020, there have been 38-54 million cases of the flu. Now covid19 is supposedly twice as contagious, and there's no vaccine... now considering this, you telling me there have been only 961000 cases?
ETA... I realize corona is more deadly than the flu.
I'd put the max actual cases at like 5 million. Remember, it started from 1 person. It takes a while for that to grow especially considering the longer incubation time.
But it's not like all deaths are getting classified correctly either.
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Probably max 1 million in the US. For every person sick enough to get a test, there may be 4 out there whose symptoms weren't bad enough to get tested.
Iceland has been randomly testing everyone. They show 50% of positive cases are asymptomatic.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/01/europ...ntl/index.html
Edit: Assuming the 50% asymptomatic stat holds true, for there to be more than 1 million total cases, there would have to be more than twice as many undetected cases where the person is actually sick and not getting tested. I don't think that's true.
I think you have to look at the current "death rate numbers" as all over the map and very situation specific. Unless Italy is actively doing something to tested people to make their death rate worse, I don't think it's anywhere near 11% of people sick enough to be tested. No clue what's actually happening; may be that people are so freaked out that they don't go to get tested unless it's bad enough that they need to be hospitalized. Could possibly be that they have some genetic predisposition that makes it particularly deadly, but I'm guessing it's more that the data has become even more unreliable since they've been overwhelmed by it.
104 new cases and 4 new deaths in MS last 24 hours.