Looks like a 5-5 ceiling...6-4 could happen but we would have to have everything go perfect
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Looks like a 5-5 ceiling...6-4 could happen but we would have to have everything go perfect
If it happens, this will be unbelievable to watch on tv.
Wins: Mizzou, Arky, OM, Vandy.
Loses: Bama, Auburn, LSU, UGA, A&M(?)
tossups: Kentucky.
I want to say A&M is a tossup just because 1) they're never as good as they should be, 2) I think Jimbo is not a very adaptive offensive mind so the 3-3-5 might give him trouble, 3) their DC has not impressed me the last 2 years and so I think it's likely he fails to adjust properly to the air raid. 4) Mond is just not a "winner", and doesn't do anything for me.
Similarly Auburn could be an upset. They won't have a good QB, and thus won't have a particularly scary O. Adding Morris as OC doesn't scare me at all (he was only hired because Gus knows he'll run the exact crap he himself would, and holy hell was his O at Arky bad. His horrible QB management/development at Arky also doesn't make me think Nix takes a step forward). Yeah Auburns D should be fast, talented, and well coached, BUT their secondary hasn't been all that good recently and you never know is any given DC will know what to do vs Leach.
All in all, I don't expect to do better tan 5-5. When you're playing your SEC peers with a first year HC, new defensive scheme, and a D with less than usual talent levels, 5-5 (i.e. middle of the pack) is perfectly fine.
As long as we show signs of improvement and that the SloMo culture is fixed, I'll be optimistic for the future. How the D comes along is also big, because my excitement for the future is largely based on what I think of the as yet unproven DC
Remember, a 5-5 year vs all SEC competition translates to a 4-4 conference record in normal years, and thus an 8-4 overall record. If Covid wasn't a thing I think all of us would take a 8-4 season
I say 6-4
aTm could make us 7-3 because Jimbo sucks so bad. We could steal that one.
If we get to play, this season is complete house money. I will have no expectations other than enjoying getting to watch us play. I think its the perfect situation to break in a new system since everything is so strange, and Leach's first year was always going to be a potential shit show. We may go 3-7 but I'll enjoy the hell out of it.
I agree that anything above 5-5 is pretty optimistic thinking. Although we could definitely beat Auburn and/or A&M, you know Kentucky and Ole Miss are penciling us in as wins, and Missouri probably thinks of us as a swing game.
Very likely to lose: @Alabama, Georgia
Presumably very likely to lose: @LSU - though who knows with the new QB
Swing games - probable loss: Texas A&M, Auburn
Swing games - probable win: @Ole Miss, @Kentucky - hope the new schedule lets us play Kentucky earlier before it gets really cold
Clear favorite - Missouri
Very likely to win - Arkansas, @Vanderbilt
A lot of research shows that the primary cause of homefield advantage is referees subconsciously favoring the home crowd on very close calls, so it may be close to non-existent this year.
With our luck though, Kylin and KJ will both be amazing top 5 picks, we'll go 9-1, they'll cancel the playoff (a playoff we definitely would have made and been the favorite to win), and the polls will give the national title to Clemson who beat nobody.
Or ... they will have a playoff, but we won't make it because we have a loss (to Georgia, who we wouldn't have played without the COVID rescheduling) and the other 4 P5 conferences will all have an undefeated team (at least 1 of which would have lost a non-conference game).
It's so hard to predict record bc who knows who will be able to play. I suspect you will see scenarios where somebody's qb or first round dt test positive on Thursday and can't play.
At least we get to have an extended practice period. That'll help get the air raid installed and repped in good. Same goes for the defense.
I think we are overrating what he is going to be, but that's what we are supposed to do as fans. He's pretty much functioning as a bandaid for year one to hopefully at least make us respectable till we have time to turn over the roster. That's me trying to be a realist.
Is the season divisionless? Top 2 play for title?
I don't think anything has been decided yet officially as far as who we will play. All we know is we're playing 10 SEC teams.
If there is an algorithm- heck I'd it's possible that we could be playing anyone in the league. The only team I would guess that we're guaranteed to play is Ole Miss.