https://twitter.com/ethanjweiss/stat...75950978039808
For some reason I can't embed this tweet and graph.
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https://twitter.com/ethanjweiss/stat...75950978039808
For some reason I can't embed this tweet and graph.
Yes! The UK recently went on full lockdown, so he's speaking in context of that.
The article claims he changed his stance when in fact, he did not. His model has always had the "unmitigated" scenario and the "suppression" scenario. It just happens that the UK recently decided to go with the "suppression" strategy so now he believes they have a chance.
The article leads you to believe that he suddenly had some realization that things aren't as bad as they seem. Not true. The numbers in the model are basically the same as they were a couple weeks ago. (They are slightly lower, like the 2.2 mil -> 2.18 mil I posted above)
On March 6 we had 233 cases.
20 days later we have 81,578 cases. The most in the world.
So things have gotten 350 times worse in twenty days.
Sure - its not 455 times worse. But still a lot worse. Where will we be in another 20 days. If thins are only 20 times worse in 20 days - we will 1.6 million cases by April 15th.
Once again this is not gonna be as bad as some believe and will be worse than others believe. Pray that it's best case scenario.
The death rate that is relevant is death rate of people affected. Italy is now over 10% death rate for those tested positive. Most experts predicted that as their hospitals were overwhelmed. Spain's death rate is around 6%.
Our death rate is around 1.5% which is good, but we have not hit the cross over point where the lack of health care affects the death rate except in places like in New York where people are not getting the care you need to survive.
Look - hopefully we are all doing part and the numbers simply flatten out so that we can keep that death rate, but without a cure and how easy this spreads and the number of people still not staying home and doing their part - if the growth rate continues at 23-28% which where it has been for a while - then this keeps doubling every 3 days. Lets hope it really flattens out over the next week, but so far every model showing this virus spreading and doubling has been for the most part too damn accurate.
I mean we are at 81,000+ cases. We had 200+ twenty days ago. At some point people may have to utter those three little words on a sports message board that no one wants to type.
I was wrong.
Per this tweet - Italy's numbers are worse
https://twitter.com/williamreggler/s...58088859127808
I've been hopeful that the rural nature of our state would shield us from the worst of it, but the numbers are troubling. Add that to the fact that we have such an unhealthy population anyway and the majority are overweight. I worry about it. We're a poor state with few resources. We have a lot of rural hospitals that simply can't handle this.
Wouldn't that also be applicable to other countries?
So lets assume the death rate is significantly less than the 1-2% most people are predicting - wouldn't that be based on positive Covid cases. So if 1 million people have the Covid confirmed and only 100K die providing a 1% death rate of confirmed covid cases which is less than most countries; Yet in reality 5 million have the Covid and still 100K die, where is the upside? I guess I'm missing that point.
US:
March 21: 46 deaths
March 22: 113 deaths
March 23: 141 deaths
March 24: 225 deaths
March 25: 247 deaths
This will continue going up. 300, 400, 500 a day. When will it end? Well, our new cases are continuing to grow as well.
March 21: 4825 new cases
March 22: 9400 new cases
March 23: 10189 new cases
March 24: 11075 new cases
March 25: 13355 new cases
It usually takes 2-4 weeks for someone to die from this virus. Our deaths per day will continue growing as long as our new cases do.
Remember, we're still about 12 days behind Italy and 8 days behind Spain.
It would seem to me that the stat that would be most relevant is confirmed Covid cases. As that grows - so does the death rate. We have to keep that number from doubling every 3 days, because that would seem to be the best predictor of people that will potentially die.
If that number continues to grow - as it has over the last 20 days - then the numbers will most likely continue to be accurate. I sure hope they stop doubling at the rate they are, but I just don't see the level of suppression they keep talking about being adhered to, and for many areas - it is too late based on the incubation period.