Baseball Stats: The Opponent HR in 2021

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06-16-2021, 02:18 AM
The Federalist Engineer

Baseball Stats: The Opponent HR in 2021

Homerun containment at TD Ameritrade will be a massive factor for us.

(1) 2021-MSU pitching has yielded 68% more HRs than the previous year, you need to go back 11 seasons to the last +60 HR year for opponents.
(2) However, 2021-MSU only gave up 6 more Total Bases and 50 fewer hits relative to 2019. Even fewer hits than dead bat 2014.
(3) Seems that teams can't string hits on MSU, the opposition need the big HR payoff and swing hard
(4) Is Gorilla Ball back in 2021 generally? Not for MSU. MSU only got 9% more HR in 2021 and struck out less

The Opposition in Omaha

(1) Tennessee has hit 85% more HRs in 2021. From 53 to 98 HRs, striking out 100 times more
(2) Texas has hit 133% more HRs in 2021. From a sad 27 to respectable 63, striking out 100 times more

If TD Ameritrade contains HRs like Arlington did in February and how TD Ameritrade has in years past, this is game changing for MSU. It neutralizes the best weapon against MSU. If Lemonis was planning for TD Ameritrade this whole time, then this is the greatest use of terrain since the Iron Duke at Waterloo with the Reverse Slope. Then he just needs to figure out how to beat the Rocker-Leiter.
06-16-2021, 05:26 AM
MoreCowbell

I have been thinking about this as well. I always go back to how UCLA played us in championship that year. I like the stats you provided thank you.
06-16-2021, 05:28 AM
MoreCowbell

I like that we dont necessarily rely on the home run for our offensive production
06-16-2021, 09:59 AM
CadaverDawg

I may be way off, but I feel like Foxhall likes power arms that pitch up in the zone to blow it by people. When you use that strategy, you're going to give up some bombs, but you're going to strike a lot of guys out and get a lot of pop ups. So based on this years results, I'll gladly take the increase in homers along with the 750 K's and overall lack of hard contact we give up. Gotta keep recruiting big arms though, or that could turn ugly if the K's come way down.
06-16-2021, 11:50 AM
SailingDawg

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Federalist Engineer

Then he just needs to figure out how to beat the Rocker-Leiter.

Didn't we beat Leiter in the regular season?
06-16-2021, 12:03 PM
ScoobaDawg

Good stats. I do believe taking away the home run threat is a big help for us. but more pressure to cleanly field in the infield.
06-16-2021, 12:08 PM
ScoobaDawg

Quote:

Originally Posted by SailingDawg

Didn't we beat Leither in the regular season?

Yep. got 4 runs on 6 hits. including Rowdey hitting 1-0 bomb to start the game and tanner getting a homer in the 5th.
https://vucommodores.com/boxscore/210607/
06-16-2021, 01:02 PM
SmokeyDawg

Quote:

Originally Posted by CadaverDawg

I may be way off, but I feel like Foxhall likes power arms that pitch up in the zone to blow it by people. When you use that strategy, you're going to give up some bombs, but you're going to strike a lot of guys out and get a lot of pop ups. So based on this years results, I'll gladly take the increase in homers along with the 750 K's and overall lack of hard contact we give up. Gotta keep recruiting big arms though, or that could turn ugly if the K's come way down.

I was thinking on this last week. Didn't think whether it was Foxhall's preference or just our pitchers. We seem to have a staff loaded with strike out guys and not many pitch to contact guys.
06-16-2021, 05:31 PM
ScoobaDawg

Quote:

Originally Posted by SmokeyDawg

I was thinking on this last week. Didn't think whether it was Foxhall's preference or just our pitchers. We seem to have a staff loaded with strike out guys and not many pitch to contact guys.

K's went over 700 when Foxhall came... just figured it was his style.
Hoping we get to 766 for the season so we can break the sec record.
06-16-2021, 05:40 PM
confucius say

Good stats. CMac particularly gives up a good bit of long balls. Harding does not. He may be your better option after bednar
06-16-2021, 09:26 PM
The Federalist Engineer

Quote:

Originally Posted by ScoobaDawg

K's went over 700 when Foxhall came... just figured it was his style.
Hoping we get to 766 for the season so we can break the sec record.

Not me, I like Maddux Ball

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maddux_(statistic)

I wish we had a Chuck Holly, Caleb Reed, and/or Jonathan Holder that did not throw 97, but were reliable, mental Titans. We are missing this precision ingredient because Brandon Smith is not yet back to 2019 performance. Or, maybe Foxhall does not cultivate the trait like Butch did.

After watching many regional games, NCAA is full of +95 Canadians. The short draft did not make the pitching talent too dominant, it left a ton of A-ball head cases in D1.
06-16-2021, 09:37 PM
Schultzy

Omaha temps?highs and lows.

Sunday 87 64
Monday 73 54
Tuesday 81 66

If lower temps mitigate ball flight?maybe I?m reaching

ETA: Winds 15-30 mph Sunday out of the South

Winds 10-20 Tuesday from W/NW

I don’t know which way the field is directed.
06-16-2021, 10:37 PM
State82

Quote:

Originally Posted by Schultzy

I don’t know which way the field is directed.

Home to center field is pretty much on a due southeast bearing.
06-16-2021, 10:50 PM
OLJWales

How similar are our dimensions compared to Omaha?
06-16-2021, 10:57 PM
FriarsPoint

Quote:

Originally Posted by OLJWales

How similar are our dimensions compared to Omaha?

408 dead center Omaha
395 Dudy Noble

335 down both left and right field lines in Omaha
330 down left and 328 down right in Dudy

375 in both power alleys in Omaha

Dudy I think is 370 in the alleys

I may be off on the Dudy numbers. I know Omaha from memory.

Worse than I thought.

Dudy
305 right field line
390 dead center
374 RC
376 LC
330 left field line

So. Safe to say the ball will not fly out of Omaha like it did the last two weeks in Starkville without crushing it or help from Mother Nature.
06-16-2021, 11:20 PM
OLJWales

Quote:

Originally Posted by FriarsPoint

408 dead center Omaha
395 Dudy Noble

335 down both left and right field lines in Omaha
330 down left and 328 down right in Dudy

375 in both power alleys in Omaha

Dudy I think is 370 in the alleys

I may be off on the Dudy numbers. I know Omaha from memory.

Worse than I thought.

Dudy
305 right field line
390 dead center
374 RC
376 LC
330 left field line

So. Safe to say the ball will not fly out of Omaha like it did the last two weeks in Starkville without crushing it or help from Mother Nature.

Thanks Friar. Sounds like Omaha is advantage good guys.
06-17-2021, 12:32 AM
The Federalist Engineer

Since 2014 when TD Ameritrade became the Venue and the Dead Bat was eliminated

2019 HR/Team/Game = 0.73 ... that was 24% Less than 2019 SEC HR/Team/Game
2018 HR/Team/Game = 0.56 ... 42% Less than 2018 SEC HR/Team/Game
2017 HR/Team/Game = 0.72 ... 15% Less than 2017 SEC HR/Team/Game
2016 HR/Team/Game = 0.29 ... 57% Less than 2016 SEC HR/Team/Game
2015 HR/Team/Game = 0.47 ... 36% Less than 2015 SEC HR/Team/Game

Of the last 5 champs, only 2018-Oregon State hit more HR's in the CWS, up 1%. They hit nearly half the HRs in that tournament.

The rest of the champs hit 17% to 80% fewer longballs in Omaha.

I compared the CWS only to SEC games to control for Opponent Quality and the use of Friday and Saturday Aces.
06-17-2021, 01:30 AM
Todd4State

Quote:

Originally Posted by CadaverDawg

I may be way off, but I feel like Foxhall likes power arms that pitch up in the zone to blow it by people. When you use that strategy, you're going to give up some bombs, but you're going to strike a lot of guys out and get a lot of pop ups. So based on this years results, I'll gladly take the increase in homers along with the 750 K's and overall lack of hard contact we give up. Gotta keep recruiting big arms though, or that could turn ugly if the K's come way down.

I'm not sure that Bednar and MacLeoud really fit Foxhall's style that well in that I don't think either one has enough velocity to pitch without being prone to giving up home runs. I do think that guys like Fristoe (who yes, I know gave up 9 home runs himself), Cade Smith, Tepper, and the recruits we're getting fit it much better.

Quote:

Originally Posted by SailingDawg

Didn't we beat Leither in the regular season?

Yes. If we play them in the championship round- getting ahead of myself here- the best chance we have is to split with Rocker and Leiter and then hope that Hootie can outpitch their third guy. We also won't hold Landon back and we'll be at a neutral site as opposed to Nashville.

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Federalist Engineer

Not me, I like Maddux Ball

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maddux_(statistic)

I wish we had a Chuck Holly, Caleb Reed, and/or Jonathan Holder that did not throw 97, but were reliable, mental Titans. We are missing this precision ingredient because Brandon Smith is not yet back to 2019 performance. Or, maybe Foxhall does not cultivate the trait like Butch did.

After watching many regional games, NCAA is full of +95 Canadians. The short draft did not make the pitching talent too dominant, it left a ton of A-ball head cases in D1.

The biggest thing I miss about Butch was all the sidearm/submarine guys. Not that I think we should go back to that. But I'd like to have a guy or two that we can rely on to eat innings like Chase Patrick that we use some. It's just a weird thing I like as far as baseball players go. Loved me some Dan Quisenberry back in the day.