Whats the scoop? Wx reports said worst along and south of I-20 but now have the area extended up to Greenwood into the night. Are we looking at a possible severe outbreak?
Printable View
Whats the scoop? Wx reports said worst along and south of I-20 but now have the area extended up to Greenwood into the night. Are we looking at a possible severe outbreak?
Was just coming to post something.
The evening and night of NYE is starting to look more volatile and with the extent being pushed further north. First...what we know:
This is a storm system that has wind shear in abundance. 0-1km storm relative helicity is now forecast to be 400+. All you need for tornadoes is typically 100+. The storm will have a negative tilt which also causes low level winds to favor rotating storms. The big question is how much CAPE, or instability, will there be and will we have discrete cells or a squall line. As of now, CAPE values look to be in the 500-1,000 range which, for this time of year, is plenty. The question is how far north will the instability get before the front moves through. Models are indicating a slowing system which is not good.
What does this mean? If you have plans for NYE have some way to get weather alerts. As of right now we are just under a slight risk by the SPC, but I've seen some chatter on twitter that could be raised. I would not be surprised to see it up to an enhanced risk for at least part of MS with the next update.
Some notable chasers are calling for a potential tornado outbreak. I'm not saying that...yet. If, and this is a big if, everything comes together perfectly then this might be an interesting night on 12/31. But there's still a lot of questions to be answered. As of right now it does look like severe storms will be likely NYE night. How many or how strong is still to be determined.
2020 going out kicking and screaming.
How is it looking around Memphis? Also, seen some reports of 4 inches of rain?
I just got through looking at the latest runs of medium range models and I'm not impressed. If they continue to trend in the direction of these latest runs the tornado threat should be primarily confined to southern LA and MS south of I-20 and west of I-55. After that storms look to transition to a more linear mode and possibly weakening. The question is will this be the trend or is it a one off run. Should have a slightly better answer in the early morning hours.
My place up in Covington Co. has just missed every damn tornado this year. I'm staying down south for this one. Hunting is crap when you're fighting skeeters anyway.
The SPC has upgraded to an enhanced threat for extreme southwest MS. Everything else is pretty much the same.
Not Cooter but my uncle who passed away last year owned that farm on the on the right just north of Mapp's. Remember the train derailment with chlorine back in the mid 80's that caused an evacuation? That was on the backside of his property. I think he had a sign up. Roberts' Farm.
Gotcha.