I think Dr. Fauci's models were way off to start with. But no doubt social distancing has still helped save lives.
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I gave a back of the napkin estimate for the finality. Havent even been proven off of that original prediction either (which I said I didn't think we would do a good job with social distancing).
This month is going to be interesting to see play out. Because I know personally I'm going stir crazy with quarantining and working from home. If our new cases day per total cases ratio kicks back up then we could be in for a bumpy ride.
Also hating on these doctor's models when the opposite side was blatantly awful and their inaccuracy led to more deaths while the doctors models helped save lives by conveying the severity of the situation... I mean ffs we had people in the month of march saying there wouldn't be 30k cases in the US before the start of summer. It's barely into April and we already have 5 digit deaths in the country.
Chastising people for perfectly predicting American behavior and Trump / State behavior is just silly. "Haha you were wrong we didn't have THAT many die." Well yea, that's the ****ing point.
Dr Fauci said in January that Coronavirus wouldn't affect us at all. He has been consistently wrong the entire time. He has had to backtrack multiple times.
And yeah- it's great that he was wrong in a good way. But I think he's getting way too much credit from people. Heck- Msstate7 on our board has been more right than Dr. Fauci. How come msstate7 isn't getting any accolades?
I'm not really gonna fault predictions from January / early Feb at this point. Not many people could think that we would have been so woefully incompetent at protecting ourselves while China malicious has spread it.
Not saying he deserves every accolade he's receiving, but some context is needed. He's having to correct whatever idiot things our president says inaccurately and also manage to not piss off that same man who fires people constantly. Fauci started off in a hole a mile deep and is battling back to ground level.
Just giving you a hard time dude cause ... you're so sensitive about it LOL. I think it's serious shit and would be more serious without social distancing. I feel a lot for those folks in NY ... I do. Would 2 or 3 mill die tho ... kinda skeptical on that one but it's probably better off to be safer than sorry. Especially now that we've started down this path. Unless of course you can't eat or put a roof over your head and your kids' too after this is all over ... I feel a lot for those folks too.
Trump does some things I like, and some things I don't. Relative to this tho ... he has some tough trades he has to make while listening to experts who are still grasping at the severity of the situation themselves every single day. And he's not doing a bad job of that. Part of the reason he changes his tune every day is cause they keep changing their tune.
EVERYONE was wrong back in January. Fauci, Pelosi, Cuomo, the NY mayor, the Mich gov ... etc. But I don't hold it against them cause ... no one really knew at that time. The only ones that were smart are the senators and congressmen who made several mill by getting out of the stock market. I do hold that against them.
OK- how about his predictions that were off in March about how many people would die? Even the models that showed the "best case" scenario from him were way too high. And I can't buy that ALL of the good news is due to social distancing. Even the White House is starting to not believe him.
Oktibbeha county with its first death. It was an 89 year old woman.
I'm pretty sure the best case scenario has always been 100k dead and we'll get there. ~1200 dying each day currently, that number will continue to grow before it plateaus and slowly drops.
(And only a fraction of a percent of our population has been infected so far)
Guys I went to town (Collins) yesterday to get gas in jugs for mower, four wheeler, etc.... I did everything u are supposed to do. I wore a cheap mask, stayed way away from people, and wore latex gloves when using gas nozzle and keypad. The gas pumps were very busy. I had to wait and there were people pulling up when I left. I WAS THE ONLY PERSON DOING ANY OF THIS!!!!! Not 1 damn person was wearing gloves or using sanitizer that I saw!!!!! People looked at me like I was an alien.
IHME now predicts 81,766 deaths (range is between ~50k - 136k) in US by aug 4th. It predicts 237 deaths (range is between 175 and 325) in miss by aug 4th.
https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections
That is not what the death numbers in Italy and Spain are showing. Even adjusting for the COVID deaths, the number of deaths has doubled vs the standard weeks. It may not be "Vivid" deaths, but those unable to get treatment due to covid. (I.e., a heart attack unable to get an ICU, or scared to go to the DR due to Covid)
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/ar...ing-death-toll
COVID-19 Testing
Statewide Testing Summary
COVID-19 testing providers around the state include commercial laboratories and the University of Mississippi Medical Center (UMMC). Combined with testing done by the MSDH Public Health Laboratory, the figures provide a complete picture of all Mississippi testing.
Combined testing totals (MSDH, UMMC and commercial testing providers) as of April 5, 2020.
Total individuals tested by the MSDH Public Health Laboratory 6,309
Total individuals tested by other providers 14,061
Total individuals tested for COVID-19 statewide 20,378
Total individuals tested positive for COVID-19 out of that total statewide number 1,738
You really can't go by county numbers concerning safety from Covid-19. Unfortunately in the next day or so (probably tomorrow) there will be another county, which most would call having a minimal number of positive cases (less than 5 and none LTC currently), which will be listed on the MSDH website as having one LTC facility with an outbreak. It is real scary for all of us but especially so concerning these LTC facilities.
This is bullshit. you don't get extra credit for being chicken little. There is a lot of uncertainty in these types of decisions that make being "right" more or less impossible absent some blind luck. We still don't know, but there's a good chance we are going to find out that our policies made a bad situation a good bit worse. And saying "well at least we did something" isn't helpful to the people that are devastated or even dead b/c people freaked out.
Fauci now stating that he thinks it will become seasonal.
I guess we will have to shut down America forever...******************