Updated Severe Weather Outlook. Slight Risk Wednesday / Significant Outbreak for Thur

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02-28-2023, 05:25 AM
starkvegasdawg

Updated Severe Weather Outlook. Slight Risk Wednesday / Significant Outbreak for Thur

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/partners/ou...png?1677566839

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/partners/ou...png?1677573313

SPC has upgraded NW MS to a slight risk for severe weather Wednesday for a conditional low end event and maintaining a significant severe weather event possible late Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. As I was expecting, they did retract the threat back slightly westward for Thursday as it looks like the timing of the storm has slowed slightly. By the time the storms reach the golden triangle area the system will be weakening as the best dynamics start to pull away from the region. However, parts of western and central MS are still fully under the gun and the SPC is saying an upgrade to a moderate risk is likely with the threat for damaging winds and tornadoes (some strong) in the black hatched area. I would not be surprised if most of any mod risk is in parts of AR and LA and possibly extending into the delta region. Just have to see how it plays out.
02-28-2023, 07:00 AM
HaggardDawg

So how do we follow this storm in Central MS with the Brandon radar down?
02-28-2023, 07:11 AM
starkvegasdawg

Quote:

Originally Posted by HaggardDawg

So how do we follow this storm in Central MS with the Brandon radar down?

They're expecting to have it back up and running. All of the components have been installed and they're just doing some final adjustments and functional tests. They had it up and running about 30 minutes last night.
02-28-2023, 08:01 AM
SilentSteel16

You mean the Brandon radar that the brilliant engineers stuck a water tower up in front of…. Is that the radar you speak of, the one with a damn blind spot to the NNW?
02-28-2023, 08:37 AM
starkvegasdawg

Quote:

Originally Posted by SilentSteel16

You mean the Brandon radar that the brilliant engineers stuck a water tower up in front of?. Is that the radar you speak of, the one with a damn blind spot to the NNW?

That would be the one. It it's actually to the SW. Mayor said it would have little effect and just a few months later the rotation of a tornado literally followed the exact path of that radar hole.
02-28-2023, 10:09 AM
SilentSteel16

Yeah I knew it was somewhere towards Yazoo. I think there was a civil suit or something against City of Brandon if I remember right.
02-28-2023, 11:52 AM
TUSK

Just curious, Vegas, but how do you Weather Cats define "severe" weather???

Flooding, Hail, High Winds, Naders, Hurricanes, Raining Frogs, a combination thereof?

Thanks for the effort you put into this....
02-28-2023, 01:06 PM
starkvegasdawg

Quote:

Originally Posted by TUSK

Just curious, Vegas, but how do you Weather Cats define "severe" weather???

Flooding, Hail, High Winds, Naders, Hurricanes, Raining Frogs, a combination thereof?

Thanks for the effort you put into this....

We use the NWS definition of a severe thunderstorm which is any storm producing at least one of the below:
Winds of 58mph or greater
Hail 1" in diameter or larger
Tornado
02-28-2023, 06:51 PM
DownwardDawg

Bump.
This is the new thread.
02-28-2023, 07:02 PM
starkvegasdawg

Trends are becoming interesting. Storm system is slowing down which looks to put the worst over AR late Thursday afternoon. I had said earlier that it looked like east MS and west AL would miss the highest impacts. Well, maybe not. If it continues to slow down that would put it not hitting that area until Friday morning which could POSSIBLY give it time to reenergize. The low level jet is also starting to shift just slightly and no longer be perfectly parallel to the cold front. Additionally, a strong capping inversion looks to be in place ahead of the front. These factors will limit the amount of discrete supercells that form and reduce the tornado risk over MS. If I were or pick a spot in the state with the best shot at tornadoes I would say the central and northern delta.
03-01-2023, 01:15 PM
DownwardDawg

Bump
03-01-2023, 01:41 PM
DownwardDawg

Sitting at NOLA airport headed back to Nashville. How bad is the severe risk for the Nashville area??
I haven't found a good source up there like you guys. That's why I always ask here.
03-01-2023, 02:22 PM
starkvegasdawg

Quote:

Originally Posted by DownwardDawg

Sitting at NOLA airport headed back to Nashville. How bad is the severe risk for the Nashville area??
I haven't found a good source up there like you guys. That's why I always ask here.

Nashville is right at the edge of the slight risk for tonight. Overall, I doubt it gets too bad there.

North MS is starting to trend a little higher for severe weather tonight, though. Especially the NW delta. The HRRR is showing a capping inversion just above the surface over east MS and that will help suppress storms here for night, but if any storms can break the cap they could easily go severe.
03-01-2023, 02:33 PM
DownwardDawg

Quote:

Originally Posted by starkvegasdawg

Nashville is right at the edge of the slight risk for tonight. Overall, I doubt it gets too bad there.

North MS is starting to trend a little higher for severe weather tonight, though. Especially the NW delta. The HRRR is showing a capping inversion just above the surface over east MS and that will help suppress storms here for night, but if any storms can break the cap they could easily go severe.

Thanks man!!
03-01-2023, 02:35 PM
yjnkdawg

Quote:

Originally Posted by SilentSteel16

You mean the Brandon radar that the brilliant engineers stuck a water tower up in front of…. Is that the radar you speak of, the one with a damn blind spot to the NNW?

Those brilliant engineers did so because politics and stupidity usually win out. The City of Brandon was informed by knowledgeable people that it was going to be an issue and affect the Jax KDGX Radar beam to the SW of the radar site.
03-01-2023, 04:10 PM
Roy Munson

Got to head to Jackson early am tomorrow from Stark and then headed back to stark probably around midafternoon. What does that look like for me?
03-01-2023, 05:41 PM
jgunn

Quote:

Originally Posted by starkvegasdawg

Nashville is right at the edge of the slight risk for tonight. Overall, I doubt it gets too bad there.

North MS is starting to trend a little higher for severe weather tonight, though. Especially the NW delta. The HRRR is showing a capping inversion just above the surface over east MS and that will help suppress storms here for night, but if any storms can break the cap they could easily go severe.

What?s the timing look like for North Ms, Southaven area?
03-01-2023, 06:05 PM
starkvegasdawg

Quote:

Originally Posted by jgunn

What?s the timing look like for North Ms, Southaven area?

Today? Right now.

Tomorrow? Probably midnight or later.
03-01-2023, 06:06 PM
starkvegasdawg

Quote:

Originally Posted by Roy Munson

Got to head to Jackson early am tomorrow from Stark and then headed back to stark probably around midafternoon. What does that look like for me?

You should be fine. Timing for MS tomorrow looks well after dark.
03-01-2023, 07:14 PM
Roy Munson

Thanks, bud!
03-01-2023, 08:24 PM
starkvegasdawg

Likely tornado near Guntown.
03-01-2023, 08:38 PM
RocketDawg

Just got a tornado watch issued for northern Alabama. I haven't seen the county outline yet, but it goes until 2 a.m.
03-01-2023, 08:42 PM
RocketDawg

Quote:

Originally Posted by starkvegasdawg

Likely tornado near Guntown.

Tornado warning NW Alabama, but it's not in Alabama yet; is an extension for a warning in NE Mississippi. . Separate from the one north of Tupelo.
03-01-2023, 08:54 PM
RocketDawg

According to local coverage (goes live when there's a warning for the coverage area), the storms in NW Miss are picking up steam before they enter Alabama.
03-01-2023, 10:31 PM
parabrave

Tornado crossing the River north of Greenville/
03-01-2023, 10:38 PM
parabrave

Hey Rocket Decauter about to get hit/
03-01-2023, 10:50 PM
parabrave

Hey Rocket better get under cover.
03-01-2023, 10:58 PM
RocketDawg

Quote:

Originally Posted by parabrave

Hey Rocket Decauter about to get hit/

Quote:

Originally Posted by parabrave

Hey Rocket better get under cover.

Yes, very close. And some of the most severe lightning and thunder I've ever seen/heard. I think it's going to go just a bit north of us though. I'm just south of Toyota Field.
03-01-2023, 11:07 PM
parabrave

Storm headed toward Madison Airport/
03-01-2023, 11:18 PM
RocketDawg

Looks like a tornado near Hackleburg. It shows a debris ball.

No tornado confirmed in the Huntsville/Decatur/Madison area, but there is torrential rain, wind, and lightning. Still a tornado warning running right through the metro though.
03-01-2023, 11:28 PM
parabrave

Quote:

Originally Posted by RocketDawg

Looks like a tornado near Hackleburg. It shows a debris ball.

No tornado confirmed in the Huntsville/Decatur/Madison area, but there is torrential rain, wind, and lightning. Still a tornado warning running right through the metro though.

Glad I'm not driving south of San Antonio.
03-02-2023, 06:44 PM
starkvegasdawg

New tornado watch issued for parts of LA and AR.

https://www.on3.com/boards/attachmen...c-jpeg.314779/
03-02-2023, 11:07 PM
StarkVegasSteve

I got real dicey in downtown Dallas around 6:30. I didn't ever see a tornado touch down but there was definite rotation and some heavy straight line winds. Somehow only lost power for a couple of minutes.
03-03-2023, 07:17 AM
starkvegasdawg

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Line of storms now in MS. Currently, none are severe but some are just below. A tornado watch will soon be issued for NE MS as they anticipate the lien starting to intensify a little later this morning. Storms or not, very strong winds are across the state with gusts over the delta approaching 60mph. Be careful driving and watch for downed trees that haven't been discovered yet.
03-03-2023, 07:30 AM
Pancho

what area? we have nothing going on currently
03-03-2023, 07:51 AM
parabrave

Quote:

Originally Posted by StarkVegasSteve

I got real dicey in downtown Dallas around 6:30. I didn't ever see a tornado touch down but there was definite rotation and some heavy straight line winds. Somehow only lost power for a couple of minutes.

There was a tornado warned storm basically around Oak Cliff running SE bout that time. And anywhere from 98 north to the State Line should be weather wary.
03-03-2023, 08:07 AM
starkvegasdawg

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pancho

what area? we have nothing going on currently

NE MS. Guess my graphic didn't load.
03-03-2023, 11:45 AM
StarkVegasSteve

Quote:

Originally Posted by parabrave

There was a tornado warned storm basically around Oak Cliff running SE bout that time. And anywhere from 98 north to the State Line should be weather wary.

I saw power flashes from transformers out that way so I would assume that meant there was probably some ground level rotation on that one. I am right next to the bridge that connects downtown to Trinity Groves so Oak Cliff is not far away from me at all.
03-03-2023, 01:07 PM
RocketDawg

Storm line just went through here. Highest wind speed was 77 mph at HSV. Nothing much at my house but there was at treetop level (I'm down in a small valley). Only had 0.28" rain.

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