Significant severe weather outbreak expected Tuesday night

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11-27-2022, 06:26 AM
starkvegasdawg

Significant severe weather outbreak expected Tuesday night

I first mentioned this a few days ago and things are starting to come together for what looks like a significant fall season severe weather event. This includes an increasing likelihood of a tornado outbreak with the possibility of strong to violent tornadoes. Currently, northwest MS looks to be the most likely part of the state to be affected and the SPC has placed that area under an enhanced hatched risk area. They also mentioned a possible to probable upgrade to a moderate risk as we get closer to the event. Have multiple ways to get warnings Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. I may or may not be chasing. My truck is in the shop and I'm meeting resistance from the wife on using her car. Time will tell.

https://climate.cod.edu/data/text/im...test.png?v=642
11-27-2022, 01:11 PM
parabrave

Hey I understand that you can get Timmers Dominator IV real cheap!!
11-27-2022, 01:33 PM
Commercecomet24

Thanks again for the heads up! Your info is invaluable!
11-27-2022, 01:46 PM
starkvegasdawg

One huge area of concern is the Little Rock radar site is scheduled to be down during this event. That's going to cause a huge radar hole in the heart of the main threat area. Going to make it very hard to detect low level tornadic rotation.
11-27-2022, 01:53 PM
DownwardDawg

Quote:

Originally Posted by starkvegasdawg

One huge area of concern is the Little Rock radar site is scheduled to be down during this event. That's going to cause a huge radar hole in the heart of the main threat area. Going to make it very hard to detect low level tornadic rotation.

That sucks!

Will this move into the Nashville area?
11-27-2022, 02:24 PM
starkvegasdawg

Quote:

Originally Posted by DownwardDawg

That sucks!

Will this move into the Nashville area?

It will but it should be much weaker by then.
11-27-2022, 02:25 PM
DownwardDawg

Quote:

Originally Posted by starkvegasdawg

It will but it should be much weaker by then.

Thanks man.
11-28-2022, 02:34 AM
ArrowDawg

This is nuts for this time of year. Gets me thinking about December last year, but it's further south.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/ou...2otlk_0700.gif
11-28-2022, 02:48 AM
msu15

Quote:

Originally Posted by ArrowDawg

This is nuts for this time of year. Gets me thinking about December last year, but it's further south.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/ou...2otlk_0700.gif

Wow good to see you're still around Arrow.
11-28-2022, 06:42 AM
starkvegasdawg

SPC and local NWS offices now saying tornado outbreak. Some may be violent and long tracked. In the mod risk area straight line winds to 80 mph will also be possible. This is shaping up to be a dangerous storm system.
11-28-2022, 08:03 AM
SaintDawg

Quote:

Originally Posted by starkvegasdawg

SPC and local NWS offices now saying tornado outbreak. Some may be violent and long tracked. In the mod risk area straight line winds to 80 mph will also be possible. This is shaping up to be a dangerous storm system.

I can't recall the last time you used the words "tornado outbreak". We all know that isnt a term you like to throw around willy-nilly. Time to batten down the hatches and say a few prayers then. Thanks SVD.
11-28-2022, 08:49 AM
RocketDawg

Quote:

Originally Posted by starkvegasdawg

One huge area of concern is the Little Rock radar site is scheduled to be down during this event. That's going to cause a huge radar hole in the heart of the main threat area. Going to make it very hard to detect low level tornadic rotation.

Can't they just delay the upgrade a couple of days?
11-28-2022, 02:12 PM
starkvegasdawg

Quote:

Originally Posted by RocketDawg

Can't they just delay the upgrade a couple of days?

They have.

And moderate risk expanded to now include most of golden triangle area.

There's a couple factors that may dampen this down. Just have to see what happens, but as of right now still not looking good.
11-28-2022, 02:34 PM
Commercecomet24

Quote:

Originally Posted by starkvegasdawg

They have.

And moderate risk expanded to now include most of golden triangle area.

There's a couple factors that may dampen this down. Just have to see what happens, but as of right now still not looking good.

How's it looking for us down here in Jones County, SVD? Appreciate all your info!
11-28-2022, 02:39 PM
Desoto1967

Quote:

Originally Posted by ArrowDawg

This is nuts for this time of year. Gets me thinking about December last year, but it's further south.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/ou...2otlk_0700.gif

I've got a daughter with a less than week old baby in a single wide down in Grenada. Looks like we have got to get them somewhere else tomorrow
11-28-2022, 02:45 PM
THE Bruce Dickinson

Quote:

Originally Posted by starkvegasdawg

They have.

And moderate risk expanded to now include most of golden triangle area.

There's a couple factors that may dampen this down. Just have to see what happens, but as of right now still not looking good.

What time frame are we looking at for this ?
11-28-2022, 04:02 PM
RocketDawg

Quote:

Originally Posted by Desoto1967

I've got a daughter with a less than week old baby in a single wide down in Grenada. Looks like we have got to get them somewhere else tomorrow

Yes, that would be the wise thing to do.
11-28-2022, 05:38 PM
starkvegasdawg

Just going to post this from Jackson NWS word for word.

Tuesday-Tuesday night: At the start, significant upper level jet &
strong cold frontal system will be taking shape over the central
Plains. Sfc cyclone of 995mb will be deepening over the central
Plains, quickly ejecting E-NE through the mid-MS Valley by midday
Tues & gaining latitude into the N Great Lakes by Tues evening to
Tues night. Sfc frontal system will be diving SE towards the area by
Tues aftn in the ArkLaTex through the Ozarks & Mid-MS Valley by Tues
evening & sweeping through the area by Wed morning. Strong synoptic
jet of 75-85kts @ 500mb & +125kts @ 300mb downstream jet streak
intensifying into the central Plains Tues in advance of mean trough
ejecting out of the Pacific NW with favorable jet
placement/diffluence in the area. Subtropical ridge will deepen over
the W Carribean, keeping the bulk of the trough/forcing & height
falls well off to the NW. However, significant WAA & moisture
advection will bring boundary layer moisture with dewpoints climbing
into the upper 60s-low 70s across the region. With anomalous warmth
& dewpoints, combination of moderate to significant destabilization
& anomalous mean bulk shear aloft will favor significant severe
weather event. This will lead to combination of significant
kinematics & thermo profiles, some values not seen per SPC sounding
climatology (i.e. MLCAPE around 1000-1500 J/kg) & long clockwise
curved hodographs with +300-400 m2/s2 effective SRH & mean layer
bulk shear around 30-45kts in the 0-1km/0-3km & 50-60kts in the 0-
6km layer. This will continue to support all modes of significant
severe weather, including tornadoes, some strong & long track
tornadoes, damaging winds up to 80mph & large hail of golf ball size
or potentially larger. Highest threat looks to be along & NW of the
Natchez Trace corridor. Storm mode looks to be a combination of mid-
morning warm advection showers growing upscale & developing into
supercell mode into the afternoon hours. There are some challenges
on initial development timing & any southern storms developing
across the region, which could limit some inflow of most efficient
moisture. However, this area in SE MS could have better mid-level
capping & 700mb heights which could suppress some convection into
the Pine Belt. After collaboration with SPC earlier today, the
"Moderate" & "Enhanced" risk areas were expanded to the E & SE into
the Hwy 82/Hwy 45 corridors & along I-20 corridors, while the Slight
was also expanded to include the most S & E extreme portions of the
region. Timing for the most significant severe weather looks to be
in the 6PM to midnight timeframe, with some lingering after midnight
through 4AM. The earlier development is tricky & some severe &
tornado potential are possible as early as mid-morning to early aftn
hours. Kept timing as is for now but confidence beginning of the
warm sector supercells is lower while increased confidence of
decreasing severe potential in the Delta around 8PM-11PM in the NW
Delta, the I-55 corridor around midnight or 1AM & most potential
moved out by just before daybreak in E-SE MS.
11-28-2022, 05:51 PM
SaintDawg

I sense some foreboding in SVD's post from NWS. Bad news.
11-28-2022, 06:19 PM
DownwardDawg

Quote:

Originally Posted by Desoto1967

I've got a daughter with a less than week old baby in a single wide down in Grenada. Looks like we have got to get them somewhere else tomorrow

Absolutely
11-28-2022, 06:24 PM
DownwardDawg

Should my granddaughter go to school at Simpson academy tomorrow???
11-28-2022, 06:38 PM
starkvegasdawg

Quote:

Originally Posted by DownwardDawg

Should my granddaughter go to school at Simpson academy tomorrow???

School should be fine tomorrow. Could be a few warm air advection showers and storms but most, if not all, of the severe should hold off until after dark...but not guaranteed. I'll put it this way. I've got no reservations with my kids going to school tomorrow in Starkville.
11-28-2022, 06:41 PM
DownwardDawg

Quote:

Originally Posted by starkvegasdawg

School should be fine tomorrow. Could be a few warm air advection showers and storms but most, if not all, of the severe should hold off until after dark...but not guaranteed. I'll put it this way. I've got no reservations with my kids going to school tomorrow in Starkville.

Ok thanks man. I know you'll get hammered with questions, but has anything changed as far as the Nashville area and what is the timing there?
11-28-2022, 07:04 PM
starkvegasdawg

Quote:

Originally Posted by DownwardDawg

Ok thanks man. I know you'll get hammered with questions, but has anything changed as far as the Nashville area and what is the timing there?

Nashville still looking on severe wise. By the time the storms get there the parent low pressure will have moved well away from the area and taking the best dynamics with it.

If anyone has questions, tonight is the night. Looks like I will be chasing so tomorrow afternoon I expect to be slightly occupied.
11-28-2022, 07:07 PM
99jc

Quote:

Originally Posted by starkvegasdawg

Nashville still looking on severe wise. By the time the storms get there the parent low pressure will have moved well away from the area and taking the best dynamics with it.

If anyone has questions, tonight is the night. Looks like I will be chasing so tomorrow afternoon I expect to be slightly occupied.

wife loaned you the car i see. be safe.
11-28-2022, 07:24 PM
starkvegasdawg

Quote:

Originally Posted by 99jc

wife loaned you the car i see. be safe.

I think so. I'm planning as if that's the case.
11-28-2022, 08:17 PM
Commercecomet24

Quote:

Originally Posted by starkvegasdawg

Nashville still looking on severe wise. By the time the storms get there the parent low pressure will have moved well away from the area and taking the best dynamics with it.

If anyone has questions, tonight is the night. Looks like I will be chasing so tomorrow afternoon I expect to be slightly occupied.

How's Jones/jasper county area looking? Thanks man!

Don't wreck your wife's car! In all seriousness stay safe! Be praying for you!
11-28-2022, 08:25 PM
Todd4State

Quote:

Originally Posted by starkvegasdawg

Nashville still looking on severe wise. By the time the storms get there the parent low pressure will have moved well away from the area and taking the best dynamics with it.

If anyone has questions, tonight is the night. Looks like I will be chasing so tomorrow afternoon I expect to be slightly occupied.

Is NOLA looking Ok?
11-28-2022, 08:25 PM
starkvegasdawg

Quote:

Originally Posted by Commercecomet24

How's Jones/jasper county area looking? Thanks man!

Don't wreck your wife's car! In all seriousness stay safe! Be praying for you!

Further south and east you are the better. You could see some severe weather earlier in the day on some rogue storms that pop up, but the main event looks to be primarily NW of the Natchez Trace.

I told my wife last night she had nothing to worry about with the car. I've only driven into 3 tornadoes while chasing.
11-28-2022, 08:27 PM
Commercecomet24

Quote:

Originally Posted by starkvegasdawg

Further south and east you are the better. You could see some severe weather earlier in the day on some rogue storms that pop up, but the main event looks to be primarily NW of the Natchez Trace.

I told my wife last night she had nothing to worry about with the car. I've only driven into 3 tornadoes while chasing.

Thanks again brother! And take care of yourself!
11-28-2022, 08:46 PM
starkvegasdawg

I know right now myself and one other person from the chase team will be out tomorrow. We will both be live streaming and we get on some storms. I'll be honest, not sure how good a stream will be if after dark, but maybe enough lightning to illuminate things. Any live streams will be available on our Patreon page at this link:

https://www.patreon.com/NMSCAS

Yes, this is a shameless plug for our Patreon site. I'd say it makes a perfect stocking stuffer, but it's just a website. I guess if anything it's more like the jelly of the month club as it's the gift that keeps on giving the whole year round.

We also have YouTube channel where you'll find timely videos such as this one with helpful advice on taking shelter during severe weather.

https://youtu.be/Gpp-L0uKnJk

Ok. Enough self serving self promotion. Any questions you may have about tomorrow send them my way and if I don't know the answer I'll make something up on the spot.
11-28-2022, 08:57 PM
Ganncakes

How would you compare this setup to some of the ones we?ve seen in the past? Is this more of a normal seasonal bad setup, or is this more like one of those generational event setups like 2014?
11-28-2022, 10:35 PM
Dawg_Lover

Quote:

Originally Posted by starkvegasdawg

Nashville still looking on severe wise. By the time the storms get there the parent low pressure will have moved well away from the area and taking the best dynamics with it.

If anyone has questions, tonight is the night. Looks like I will be chasing so tomorrow afternoon I expect to be slightly occupied.

Having spent many years in the wife, mom, & grandmom depts, I can easily spot the saints, and you are definitely married to one. No dents allowed tomorrow, on the car, or you. Otherwise, you are grounded with no dessert.

All kidding aside, I do have a question. What do you believe will be the timing of the worst weather in the Desoto County area?

Be extra cautious tomorrow. And, think of those anxiously waiting to hear the comforting sound of your footsteps as you once again safely return home.
11-28-2022, 10:47 PM
starkvegasdawg

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dawg_Lover

Having spent many years in the wife, mom, & grandmom depts, I can easily spot the saints, and you are definitely married to one. No dents allowed tomorrow, on the car, or you. Otherwise, you are grounded with no dessert.

All kidding aside, I do have a question. What do you believe will be the timing of the worst weather in the Desoto County area?

Be extra cautious tomorrow. And, think of those anxiously waiting to hear the comforting sound of your footsteps as you once again safely return home.

For Desoto county you could start seeing it mid to late afternoon. But keep in mind this is an extended event with more than one round. If you see storms move though at 5:00 it doesn't mean it's over. I wouldn't relax in your area until close to midnight.
11-28-2022, 10:56 PM
Dawg_Lover

Thanks so much. Appreciate you, as always.