Thanksgiving forecast very early look.

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11-14-2022, 12:10 AM
starkvegasdawg

Thanksgiving forecast very early look.

First off...extremely low confidence this far out, but due to it being a holiday with a lot of traveling and the Egg Bowl I'm just going ahead and throwing this out there. Do not alter any plans on this.

Last few days the GFS has been showing a storm system affecting the region around Thanksgiving day. The latest run has sped it up to it impacting the area the Wednesday before. What it has also done is introduce a severe threat...especially for the southern half of the state. Now, tomorrow morning it may all be gone, but given the aforementioned circumstances I wanted to at least mention it. With the model runs at least gaining consistency in the storm system developing, about all that can be said with any confidence (still not very high)is that sometime in the Wednesday - Thursday timeframe there looks to be some inclement weather. As far as saying whether it will be severe all I can say is climatologically we are entering the heart of our fall severe weather season where severe weather is not out of the ordinary. On that Wednesday, the GFS is showing temperatures in the mid 70's to upper 70's with dew points in the mid 60's to near 70. Upper air pattern has a neutral to slightly positively tilted low pressure system that will bring in decent speed and directional shear. Not as much as if it was negatively tilted, but enough. So if this storm system develops with this combination of instability and wind shear, the stage will be set for the possibility of severe weather.

For now, make plans as usual, but at least kick around a plan B just in case. Better to have that thought out and it end up being sunny and 50 than not have any plan B and end up trying to fry that turkey in a tornado warning.
11-14-2022, 12:13 AM
Todd4State

Just what we need! Bad weather for the Air Raid!
11-14-2022, 06:46 AM
bulldawg28

Quote:

Originally Posted by Todd4State

Just what we need! Bad weather for the Air Raid!

Maybe they play better in bad weather and have to run the ball.
11-14-2022, 05:44 PM
Ranchdawg

Thank you for your insight. Please update when we get closer. Ranchdawg will have aprox 15kids under 10yrs old at the house grandkids and cousins kids. We’ve rented a inflatable bouncy house to try to keep them outside as much as possible.
11-14-2022, 09:32 PM
lastmajordog

lane is basically a running tempo game coach, Please let CML do SOMETHING different to win this game......PLEASE
11-15-2022, 09:09 AM
MaroonFlounder

Quote:

Originally Posted by lastmajordog

lane is basically a running tempo game coach, Please let CML do SOMETHING different to win this game......PLEASE

The Pirate takes STUBBORN to a whole new level. Marks was averaging 6 YPC....but aIr rAiD.

Rogers had wide open WR downfield at least TWICE and he still checked down.

If it is raining in ox T'giving night, Leach will be 0-3 in egg bowls.
11-15-2022, 03:58 PM
Lord McBuckethead

They won't run the ball. OM will though.
11-15-2022, 04:34 PM
State82

Quote:

Originally Posted by MaroonFlounder

If it is raining in ox T'giving night, Leach will be 0-3 in egg bowls.

If it is 60 degrees, not a cloud in the sky and no wind whatsoever Leach will be 0-3 in Egg Bowls.
11-16-2022, 12:10 AM
starkvegasdawg

Latest update is a good news/bad news situation. Good news is that the severe threat looks to be diminishing. Bad news is both the euro and GFS are settling in on a rainy Thanksgiving day across the state. Early guesses on rainfall totals looks to be widespread 1-3" and keeping with egg bowl tradition, a lot of that falling during the game. Since the severe threat trended downward, I'm hoping the rainfall will do the same.
11-16-2022, 10:16 PM
starkvegasdawg

Not what I wanted to type but the severe threat, especially with the euro, is starting to ramp back up for Thanksgiving day. Still 7-8 days out so plenty of time to monitor and hope it changes, but I will say it's starting to catch the eyes of some meteorologists now.
11-16-2022, 10:54 PM
Coach34

The AirBone aint worried about a little rain
11-16-2022, 10:59 PM
Cooterpoot

I'm getting drunk regardless
11-17-2022, 11:24 AM
BuckyIsAB****

It was down to like 40 percent in Oxford on thanksgiving yesterday when I looked. So now we will have ED folks rooting for the greatest OM team since integration AND the rain
11-17-2022, 01:02 PM
Goldendawg

Quote:

Originally Posted by BuckyIsAB****

It was down to like 40 percent in Oxford on thanksgiving yesterday when I looked. So now we will have ED folks rooting for the greatest OM team since integration AND the rain

I would have trouble rooting for OM in any sport, even if it helped us in the standings! Would really be tough. Get the win for the EGG!
11-17-2022, 01:03 PM
Pancho

the atmosphere will be ripe with all the pine box rumors. thicker by the minute
11-17-2022, 01:05 PM
WhiskeyPirate

Rain chances are down, cloudy light winds. Looking better.
11-17-2022, 04:22 PM
bulldawg28

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cooterpoot

I'm getting drunk regardless

Lol
11-17-2022, 05:24 PM
Pancho

will Kiffin depart in a helicopter post game as Tubby did?
11-17-2022, 06:12 PM
Extendedcab

Tubby lied on national television, during the egg bowl, when asked if he had contact with Auburn! He said no! The next day he was announced as Auburn's head coach!! Tommy Fiberville at his best, now he is a US Senator. He should be right at home!
11-17-2022, 07:36 PM
starkvegasdawg

Quote:

Originally Posted by WhiskeyPirate

Rain chances are down, cloudy light winds. Looking better.

Yeah, latest runs looking much better. Looking like not expecting the high moisture return earlier models were predicting.
11-18-2022, 02:56 PM
WhiskeyPirate

Quote:

Originally Posted by starkvegasdawg

Yeah, latest runs looking much better. Looking like not expecting the high moisture return earlier models were predicting.

Now it’s saying won’t rain at all, if it does a little rain in the morning . Pretty warm too
11-18-2022, 04:16 PM
DownwardDawg

Quote:

Originally Posted by WhiskeyPirate

Now it’s saying won’t rain at all, if it does a little rain in the morning . Pretty warm too

That along with the Kiffin departure could be setting up for a beautiful night.
11-18-2022, 04:54 PM
StarkVegasSteve

We need the Kiffin stuff to start breaking about Tuesday, ala Mullen in 2017. Although, that wasn’t as much internet rumors breaking as Hev and Gonzo legitimately telling anyone who would listen that the Egg Bowl would be the last game they coached at State.
11-18-2022, 04:59 PM
RiverCityDawg

Quote:

Originally Posted by StarkVegasSteve

We need the Kiffin stuff to start breaking about Tuesday, ala Mullen in 2017. Although, that wasn’t as much internet rumors breaking as Hev and Gonzo legitimately telling anyone who would listen that the Egg Bowl would be the last game they coached at State.

If it's as done as some in the media are saying, or if it becomes done by next week, it will get out before the egg bowl. Too many people are interested in this story and Auburn will be dying to let it leak.
11-18-2022, 06:00 PM
WhiskeyPirate

Quote:

Originally Posted by RiverCityDawg

If it's as done as some in the media are saying, or if it becomes done by next week, it will get out before the egg bowl. Too many people are interested in this story and Auburn will be dying to let it leak.

At this point, Lane is going to have to shit or get off the pot. If he hasn’t announced , to the detriment of his team, by the egg bowl he is G O N E
11-18-2022, 11:01 PM
yjnkdawg

Quote:

Originally Posted by RiverCityDawg

If it's as done as some in the media are saying, or if it becomes done by next week, it will get out before the egg bowl. Too many people are interested in this story and Auburn will be dying to let it leak.

I think the best scenario for Auburn is to let Cadillac coach Auburn in the Iron Bowl, with no announcent, and after the Iron Bowl is over Auburn announce Kiffin being hired. The season will be over after the Iron Bowl for Auburn and they could care less about OM's bowl game.
11-19-2022, 12:39 AM
Todd4State

Quote:

Originally Posted by yjnkdawg

I think the best scenario for Auburn is to let Cadillac coach Auburn in the Iron Bowl, with no announcent, and after the Iron Bowl is over Auburn announce Kiffin being hired. The season will be over after the Iron Bowl for Auburn and they could care less about OM's bowl game.

I think they might announce before the Iron Bowl. If Cadillac were to pull off the unlikely upset of the century they could end up with a Matt Luke situation.
11-19-2022, 06:43 AM
Maroonthirteen

Quote:

Originally Posted by Todd4State

I think they might announce before the Iron Bowl. If Cadillac were to pull off the unlikely upset of the century they could end up with a Matt Luke situation.

That's a great point. However Alabama is going to thump their tails.