RPI Update/Prediction

So I went and looked at Warren Nolan RPI site and was playing around on it. Their predictor is showing us finishing 32-24 and 14-16 in conference. That has us finishing with a SOS at 25 and a RPI of 58. If that happens, we are in. But here is what it is predicting?

Sweeping FL
Texas A&M 2 of 3
TN sweeping us
Winning both Samford and NBama.

Honesty, we need to cancel N Bama and Samford. Those are gonna bring us down badly, especially N Bama. They are 298.

I don?t see us sweeping FL. I honestly think we can win 1 against TN. Mizzu really hurt us tho. No question. We could have taken 2 of 3 and then lost one to FL. Now we have to sweep. Either A&M or FL. We loose either series, it?s officially over barring a miracle against Tennessee. Now of course we can still go into the SEC tournament and win it and get in, but I think we all know we don?t have the pitching nor do we match up well in that park with our fence swingers?

It?s baseball tho, anything can happen?

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Originally Posted by TNDawg35

So I went and looked at Warren Nolan RPI site and was playing around on it. Their predictor is showing us finishing 32-24 and 14-16 in conference. That has us finishing with a SOS at 25 and a RPI of 58. If that happens, we are in. But here is what it is predicting?

Sweeping FL
Texas A&M 2 of 3
TN sweeping us
Winning both Samford and NBama.

Honesty, we need to cancel N Bama and Samford. Those are gonna bring us down badly, especially N Bama. They are 298.

I don?t see us sweeping FL. I honestly think we can win 1 against TN. Mizzu really hurt us tho. No question. We could have taken 2 of 3 and then lost one to FL. Now we have to sweep. Either A&M or FL. We loose either series, it?s officially over barring a miracle against Tennessee. Now of course we can still go into the SEC tournament and win it and get in, but I think we all know we don?t have the pitching nor do we match up well in that park with our fence swingers?

It?s baseball tho, anything can happen?

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If we can't win the series against MO, we aren't sweeping FL nor takin 2 of 3 from aTm.

Yeah. I think the ship has sailed on this season. Hopefully, next year is not like Cohen?s first year.

This year's ship has sailed. We missed the boat.

I want to see Alford and Downs more. Get them AB's to get experience for next year. Pitch Cheathum and Walker more and get them more experience. It's time to see what these guys are made of moving forward.

If it comes down to needing 1 win against UT, I'm using any combination of Tuller, Tepper, Walling etc on Thursday and Friday and B. Smith, C. Smith and PJ on Saturday.

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Originally Posted by Mjoelner34

If it comes down to needing 1 win against UT, I'm using any combination of Tuller, Tepper, Walling etc on Thursday and Friday and B. Smith, C. Smith and PJ on Saturday.

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LOL, I don't think it will come down to this. I think we are done as well.

The chances of this team sweeping anybody in the SEC is about the same as picking a perfect NCAA tournament bracket.

We didn?t have much chance to begin with unless we swept Mizzou. We might take 2 from UF being that it?s at home and they aren?t that great, but I wouldn?t be surprised if we get swept by both aTm and UT. Probably will win 1 game out of 6 though between those 2 to finish 12-18.

It's not over yet because in baseball anything's possible. That being said we are in a deep, deep hole. These kids might just surprise you. I don't think they go down without a fight.
JMHO and I know it's not the popular one around here right now. It's definitely stacked against us right now and the odds are poor for sure. I want to see how this weekend goes and let it play out. If we fail, there's plenty of time to examine the gazillion reasons why. I'm pretty sure no one agrees with me and that's cool.

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Originally Posted by Commercecomet24

It's not over yet because in baseball anything's possible. That being said we are in a deep, deep hole. These kids might just surprise you. I don't think they go down without a fight.
JMHO and I know it's not the popular one around here right now. It's definitely stacked against us right now and the odds are poor for sure. I want to see how this weekend goes and let it play out. If we fail, there's plenty of time to examine the gazillion reasons why. I'm pretty sure no one agrees with me and that's cool.

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love your hope and optimism and always appreciate your perspective on baseball CC .... but this reminds me of myself sitting in Mad Jacks very late on a Saturday night and feeling hope just slowly fade away as the night progresses lol

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Originally Posted by FISHDAWG

love your hope and optimism and always appreciate your perspective on baseball CC .... but this reminds me of myself sitting in Mad Jacks very late on a Saturday night and feeling hope just slowly fade away as the night progresses lol

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Thanks and don't get me wrong, this is a low percentage deal we're working with, very low. I've seen stranger things happen in baseball though. And I'm not saying we get it done it all, I'm just saying I don't think the kids mail it in the next 3 weekends. And as I said there's plenty of time to rehash all the failures after it's over lol

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Originally Posted by PGHBulldogBG

We didn?t have much chance to begin with unless we swept Mizzou. We might take 2 from UF being that it?s at home and they aren?t that great, but I wouldn?t be surprised if we get swept by both aTm and UT. Probably will win 1 game out of 6 though between those 2 to finish 12-18.

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We'll do the most Mississippi State thing possible. We'll beat Fla 2/3 then win 1 vs A&M and Tenn to finish 13-17. 1 game short

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Originally Posted by Commercecomet24

It's not over yet because in baseball anything's possible. That being said we are in a deep, deep hole. These kids might just surprise you. I don't think they go down without a fight.
JMHO and I know it's not the popular one around here right now. It's definitely stacked against us right now and the odds are poor for sure. I want to see how this weekend goes and let it play out. If we fail, there's plenty of time to examine the gazillion reasons why. I'm pretty sure no one agrees with me and that's cool.

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I agree. We've been in this spot before in the past. At this point in the season in 2011 we were 8-13; 2012 we were 10-11; 2013 10-11; 2018 we were 9-12. All of those years we turned it on in May and got to the post season.
It may happen this year, it may not. Based on our history over the past decade, I refuse to count us out of it until we are done.

I've never known anyone that uses Warren Nolan's predictor. Probably fun to play with though!

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Originally Posted by Commercecomet24

Thanks and don't get me wrong, this is a low percentage deal we're working with, very low. I've seen stranger things happen in baseball though. And I'm not saying we get it done it all, I'm just saying I don't think the kids mail it in the next 3 weekends. And as I said there's plenty of time to rehash all the failures after it's over lol

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I have very little faith that Foxhall can manage this staff from here on out. He is going to have to do some soul searching in the offseason.

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Originally Posted by Coach34

We'll do the most Mississippi State thing possible. We'll beat Fla 2/3 then win 1 vs A&M and Tenn to finish 13-17. 1 game short

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Or we'll find a way to win the Tennessee series and then disqualified by the NCAA because we got into a brawl with them when they get pissed off because one of our players hits a walk off home run and celebrate.

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Originally Posted by Todd4State

Or we'll find a way to win the Tennessee series and then disqualified by the NCAA because we got into a brawl with them when they get pissed off because one of our players hits a walk off home run and celebrate.

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Just dont let Tenn get disqualified. I put $100 on them to win it all at +650 back in late March. Now its down to +400

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Originally Posted by Coach34

This year's ship has sailed. We missed the boat.

I want to see Alford and Downs more. Get them AB's to get experience for next year. Pitch Cheathum and Walker more and get them more experience. It's time to see what these guys are made of moving forward.

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This is a valid point. We had 4 games against Ole Miss and 3 against Missouri. We needed to win 4 or 5 of the 7 games. We only won 3. We are in real trouble when it comes to making the tournament.

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Originally Posted by Commercecomet24

Thanks and don't get me wrong, this is a low percentage deal we're working with, very low. I've seen stranger things happen in baseball though. And I'm not saying we get it done it all, I'm just saying I don't think the kids mail it in the next 3 weekends. And as I said there's plenty of time to rehash all the failures after it's over lol

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Cc24, I think we don't have the right out consistence to win 14 games. Something isn't right with this team, yes pitching is somewhat of a problem but lack of speed and no clutch hitting has been our downfall.
We gotta be way down on Clutha hitting %.

No doubt losing half of our staff is a killer but sometimes you gotta just man up and produce runs in clutch situations.

Just my two cents also, jingling the lineup week after week has to have an affect on team chemistry. We still searching for a consistent lineup.

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Originally Posted by basedog

Cc24, I think we don't have the right out consistence to win 14 games. Something isn't right with this team, yes pitching is somewhat of a problem but lack of speed and no clutch hitting has been our downfall.
We gotta be way down on Clutha hitting %.

No doubt losing half of our staff is a killer but sometimes you gotta just man up and produce runs in clutch situations.

Just my two cents also, jingling the lineup week after week has to have an affect on team chemistry. We still searching for a consistent lineup.

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I 100% agree one thing about this team has been consistently inconsistent. Lemonis has juggled the lineup trying to find something that works consistently and as you said sometimes you have to man up and some of the guys we've tried haven't "manned up". And don't get misunderstand, I'm not pumping sunshine, I've just seen a lot of weird things happen on the baseball field, and I could be 100% wrong but I just don't think this team and staff will just throw in the towel. I believe they'll push to finish. We'll know more this weekend. Win 2/3 or sweep(unlikely) then we're still in it. We've obviously put ourselves in an extremely bad position. Guess we'll find out, who's gonna falter and who's gonna finish.

Lemon's handling of the CF situation has been incompetent at best

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Originally Posted by Commercecomet24

I 100% agree one thing about this team has been consistently inconsistent. Lemonis has juggled the lineup trying to find something that works consistently and as you said sometimes you have to man up and some of the guys we've tried haven't "manned up". And don't get misunderstand, I'm not pumping sunshine, I've just seen a lot of weird things happen on the baseball field, and I could be 100% wrong but I just don't think this team and staff will just throw in the towel. I believe they'll push to finish. We'll know more this weekend. Win 2/3 or sweep(unlikely) then we're still in it. We've obviously put ourselves in an extremely bad position. Guess we'll find out, who's gonna falter and who's gonna finish.

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I think our mentality has been damaged by losing. We lost a lot of close games this year, it effects teams in all sports and even more so the fans! Look at all the negative stuff on ED during games iin game post. It has no effect on the game being played but it's human nature by most to just give up and loose faith. Some athletic teams do this especially teams with no tradition but it has played into this teams moral it seems.

I have not the answer, but like you say, we shall see if the fight is still in the dawg. Who plays centerfield this weekend? What is the batting order, seems to be a mystery and here we are still playing or guessing who will get hot.

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Originally Posted by Coach34

Lemon's handling of the CF situation has been incompetent at best

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It's pretty bad, IF it was me, I would play Alford at third (plays good defense from what I've seen) and James in CF.

Also if I was the coach, I would be working on bunting this whole week, when the shift is on lay down the damn ball, put some pressure on the defense and pitcher.

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Originally Posted by Coach34

We'll do the most Mississippi State thing possible. We'll beat Fla 2/3 then win 1 vs A&M and Tenn to finish 13-17. 1 game short

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You forgot to add to then go on to lose the final of the SECT by blowing a 4 run 9th inning lead.

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Originally Posted by Commercecomet24

It's not over yet because in baseball anything's possible. That being said we are in a deep, deep hole. These kids might just surprise you. I don't think they go down without a fight.
JMHO and I know it's not the popular one around here right now. It's definitely stacked against us right now and the odds are poor for sure. I want to see how this weekend goes and let it play out. If we fail, there's plenty of time to examine the gazillion reasons why. I'm pretty sure no one agrees with me and that's cool.

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I think they do go down without a fight. I haven't seen anything this year that would lead me to believe that any of them are capable of stepping up. Seriously. No sarcastrix here. Not a pitcher, not a hitter, and definitely not both of them at the same time.

If they stop swinging for the fence every swing and look to hit the ball just simply to the gaps, maybe. If we can start to make an out pitch when we are up 1-2 in the count, maybe. Too many silly strike outs and too many beach balls sitting 1-2 counts to make me believe.

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Originally Posted by Todd4State

Or we'll find a way to win the Tennessee series and then disqualified by the NCAA because we got into a brawl with them when they get pissed off because one of our players hits a walk off home run and celebrate.

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Ha or get swept by UF, win one at TAMU and then beat UT twice and miss tourney because we couldn't beat Mizzou. Mizzou owns us right now, think about that.

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Originally Posted by Commercecomet24

It's not over yet because in baseball anything's possible. That being said we are in a deep, deep hole. These kids might just surprise you. I don't think they go down without a fight.
JMHO and I know it's not the popular one around here right now. It's definitely stacked against us right now and the odds are poor for sure. I want to see how this weekend goes and let it play out. If we fail, there's plenty of time to examine the gazillion reasons why. I'm pretty sure no one agrees with me and that's cool.

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But think we do agree with you Commerce. It is POSSIBLE. But not PROBABLE. Now we all may have a slightly different idea of the probability we are able to get it done. Personally thinking it is around 20%. Think there is fight in our Dawgs, just not enough consistent performance.

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Originally Posted by starkvegasdawg

You forgot to add to then go on to lose the final of the SECT by blowing a 4 run 9th inning lead.

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Yikes! Don't even go there! Damn.

We lost our chances at postseason play when we didn't manage 1 win at home against LSU and didn't win 2 of 3 minimum versus Mizzou. You add two wins to our resume right now and it's likely we get in. Just inexcusable to be swept at home and be owned by Missouri. And A&M and Tennessee could easily have us losing our last 6 with the way they're playing. I've had hope in the past that we could turn it on late and make a run, but that was when State had gritty dirtbags that were tough as a 2 dollar steak....this team doesn't appear to have those guys or that mentality. It's disappointing and concerning.

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Originally Posted by basedog

I think our mentality has been damaged by losing. We lost a lot of close games this year, it effects teams in all sports and even more so the fans! Look at all the negative stuff on ED during games iin game post. It has no effect on the game being played but it's human nature by most to just give up and loose faith. Some athletic teams do this especially teams with no tradition but it has played into this teams moral it seems.

I have not the answer, but like you say, we shall see if the fight is still in the dawg. Who plays centerfield this weekend? What is the batting order, seems to be a mystery and here we are still playing or guessing who will get hot.

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I think a lot of that is perception. When I watch us play I just don't see a team that isn't playing hard. Now we may not win but that doesn't necessarily mean that the team in complacent.

That doesn't mean that this team isn't flawed. The biggest issue is the pitching injuries. And Foxhall is going to have to stop all of this "saving arms" BS that he did this past week. We need them now. And asking Fristoe, Kohn and Hunt to throw 20 pitches one day and then coming back a day or two later to throw 20 more is hardly Bianco style management.

The thing that our fans have to understand about our offense is because of the types of players we have we're going to strike out a lot and our average won't be all that high. But we make up for it with a random home run at anytime during the game an that offsets other things. People don't realize that we're near the top of the league in runs scored. Now, that's not the way I prefer our lineup be built- don't get me wrong. But I understand why it is the way it is. I want guys that can hit in the clutch like we've had in the past as well as the power hitters.

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Originally Posted by CadaverDawg

We lost our chances at postseason play when we didn't manage 1 win at home against LSU and didn't win 2 of 3 minimum versus Mizzou. You add two wins to our resume right now and it's likely we get in. Just inexcusable to be swept at home and be owned by Missouri. And A&M and Tennessee could easily have us losing our last 6 with the way they're playing. I've had hope in the past that we could turn it on late and make a run, but that was when State had gritty dirtbags that were tough as a 2 dollar steak....this team doesn't appear to have those guys or that mentality. It's disappointing and concerning.

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Pretty much. We should have at least won the Tulane series too. I think that and not beating USM hurt our RPI a good bit. Even with that we would have be fine as you say had we at least won one against LSU and won the series against Mizzou.

As far as the mentality quote- the reality is we aren't in this position with a healthy Sims and Simmons. We have too many one runs losses to come to any other conclusion. If we have Sims then Brandon Smith is still in the bullpen and probably playing the midweek starter role that Houston Harding played last year. Simmons would have been a multi inning reliever and with Hunt that would have been a significantly better bullpen. Add in Auger for the full year too. If that happens then Fristoe isn't being asked to close out any games other than blowouts. Starters aren't overextended and we don't try to do hairball things like decide that we need to pitch our shortstop in midweek games.

That's the crux of it especially when you look at our offense and realize batting average wise we're better right now than we were last year and are threatening the school record for home runs in a season.

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Originally Posted by Coach34

Lemon's handling of the CF situation has been incompetent at best

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It's absolutely baffling. Because Jess Davis hasn't really done anything to not play. It's like he wants anyone but Davis to be the CF.

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Originally Posted by Todd4State

I think a lot of that is perception. When I watch us play I just don't see a team that isn't playing hard. Now we may not win but that doesn't necessarily mean that the team in complacent.

That doesn't mean that this team isn't flawed. The biggest issue is the pitching injuries. And Foxhall is going to have to stop all of this "saving arms" BS that he did this past week. We need them now. And asking Fristoe, Kohn and Hunt to throw 20 pitches one day and then coming back a day or two later to throw 20 more is hardly Bianco style management.

The thing that our fans have to understand about our offense is because of the types of players we have we're going to strike out a lot and our average won't be all that high. But we make up for it with a random home run at anytime during the game an that offsets other things. People don't realize that we're near the top of the league in runs scored. Now, that's not the way I prefer our lineup be built- don't get me wrong. But I understand why it is the way it is. I want guys that can hit in the clutch like we've had in the past as well as the power hitters.

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My point was with subs in CF, SS and a few outfield moves, we keep plugging guys in and out of the outfield and other positions, believe me it builds a little jealous attitude with some players thinking they should be starting. I've seen this first hand as an ex coach and athlete, most want to play and think they should be starting over guys in their position. Hell read message boards and read what many think about certain players.

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Originally Posted by basedog

My point was with subs in CF, SS and a few outfield moves, we keep plugging guys in and out of the outfield and other positions, believe me it builds a little jealous attitude with some players thinking they should be starting. I've seen this first hand as an ex coach and athlete, most want to play and think they should be starting over guys in their position. Hell read message boards and read what many think about certain players.

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dead on with this ... SS for instance - it's hard to get in a groove when you're constantly platooning and neither SS had much of a chance to stay in there and grind through it ... Finally after sticking with Forsythe long enough he started paying dividends at the plate as well. I think the same would have been true with Leggett but either way make a decision and stick with it for more than just a couple of games. I noticed the same seems to apply to Quarterbacks that platoon

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Originally Posted by FISHDAWG

dead on with this ... SS for instance - it's hard to get in a groove when you're constantly platooning and neither SS had much of a chance to stay in there and grind through it ... Finally after sticking with Forsythe long enough he started paying dividends at the plate as well. I think the same would have been true with Leggett but either way make a decision and stick with it for more than just a couple of games. I noticed the same seems to apply to Quarterbacks that platoon

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Athletes want to play, some can adjust and be great teammates while a few or pissed off because they aren't starting or playing. It happens in all sports, believe me not all guys are good teammates on the inside and then some are pissed off. Look at guys leaving because someone beat them out. It happens a whole lot especially now days. Coaches have to recognize this and put things like this to bed.

P.S. I am not saying this is our "major problem" but no doubt it's an issue with team chemistry.

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Originally Posted by Todd4State

I think a lot of that is perception. When I watch us play I just don't see a team that isn't playing hard. Now we may not win but that doesn't necessarily mean that the team in complacent.

That doesn't mean that this team isn't flawed. The biggest issue is the pitching injuries. And Foxhall is going to have to stop all of this "saving arms" BS that he did this past week. We need them now. And asking Fristoe, Kohn and Hunt to throw 20 pitches one day and then coming back a day or two later to throw 20 more is hardly Bianco style management.

The thing that our fans have to understand about our offense is because of the types of players we have we're going to strike out a lot and our average won't be all that high. But we make up for it with a random home run at anytime during the game an that offsets other things. People don't realize that we're near the top of the league in runs scored. Now, that's not the way I prefer our lineup be built- don't get me wrong. But I understand why it is the way it is. I want guys that can hit in the clutch like we've had in the past as well as the power hitters.

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What’s troubling to at least some of us is our guys don’t seem to want to embrace trying to be hitters when they need to be instead of power swingers.

So after the disappointing series lost to the boon17cks from Mizzou, I rewatched last year?s season again. It cannot be stated enough how much Rowdy and Tanner brought to that team last year. We were never going to replace their leadership this year. No one on this team currently has that mentality. It kind of makes me feel better about this year and not as upset. Of course watching Dak yell F*ck yeah from the stands after we won the championship would brighten any State fans day

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Originally Posted by Activated Alpha

So after the disappointing series lost to the boon17cks from Mizzou, I rewatched last year?s season again. It cannot be stated enough how much Rowdy and Tanner brought to that team last year. We were never going to replace their leadership this year. No one on this team currently has that mentality. It kind of makes me feel better about this year and not as upset. Of course watching Dak yell F*ck yeah from the stands after we won the championship would brighten any State fans day

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Don't leave Will Bednar off that list. To paraphrase Joc Pederson - "They were those MFer's". We have been lucky to have a lot of those MFer's over the past decade. Frazier, Renfroe, The Maple Hammer, Lowe, Fosc, Westy, The Mayor, Big Hit Mac, Rowdy, TA.

Yeager is pretty damn close to being a MFer. I think Hunter Hines will be a MF'er, but he's not quite there yet. If we get lucky and Cumbest comes back, he will be. The biggest difference is that typically when you have one of those guys, the clutch becomes contagious - and we've seen that over and over, especially from 2018-2021 - and we'd have guys like Leggett step up and keep the party going. For whatever reason we just haven't had that this year. Maybe we really did use up a lot of Mojo getting the title. Maybe losing Sims, Stone, and KC (then the rest) just took the wind out of everyone's sails. Seeing Vandy not be the same this season, and the Braves start out disoriented and play crappy for a month reminds me that it isn't just an MSU thing.

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Originally Posted by BrunswickDawg

Don't leave Will Bednar off that list. To paraphrase Joc Pederson - "They were those MFer's". We have been lucky to have a lot of those MFer's over the past decade. Frazier, Renfroe, The Maple Hammer, Lowe, Fosc, Westy, The Mayor, Big Hit Mac, Rowdy, TA.

Yeager is pretty damn close to being a MFer. I think Hunter Hines will be a MF'er, but he's not quite there yet. If we get lucky and Cumbest comes back, he will be. The biggest difference is that typically when you have one of those guys, the clutch becomes contagious - and we've seen that over and over, especially from 2018-2021 - and we'd have guys like Leggett step up and keep the party going. For whatever reason we just haven't had that this year. Maybe we really did use up a lot of Mojo getting the title. Maybe losing Sims, Stone, and KC (then the rest) just took the wind out of everyone's sails. Seeing Vandy not be the same this season, and the Braves start out disoriented and play crappy for a month reminds me that it isn't just an MSU thing.

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Great post.

You know, Bruns, every year is different no matter who the team(baseball,football,basketball, pro, amatuer, it doesn't matter), even for defending champs(like State and the Braves). You always have some changes and well it's just a different season and every one is different. I remember watching one of those mic'd up things and Bill Belichik was talking to Brady on the sideline at the end of a bad loss, and he was saying I just can't get this team to buy in, can't get them to make the plays, can't get them to do the little things, and he was just shaking his head and Brady was agreeing. They won the super bowl the next year.

You must spread some Reputation around before giving it to BrunswickDawg again.

I still think we make a regional and if I was a national seed, I wouldn't want anything to do with us.

I know we are struggling, and maybe we don't make a regional, but I think we can get to 13 SEC wins, and I still think with our reputation and help on the committee, we get in somewhere.