Transfers are more valuable than HS recruits because they can't transfer again.
Only sign HS players that have a chance to make your two deep & then try to find transfers with 3-4 years of eligibility left so you can develop players.
That's the new era of roster building. Stinks for HS recruits, but that's the rules
They are more valuable because most teams have already done prospect reports on these players because of their first time being recruited. They also can call up their buddies at other institutions and get a more "realistic opinion" on the student-athlete than from a HS coach that sometimes might not be 100% truthful.
The real truth is it won't hurt your High 3 star and up recruits. Colleges will still sign these players. The worst people it hurts is your JUCO route players that are fully qualified that might be late developers.
The vast majority of players still don't transfer. HS recruits have plenty of value.
I think it's going to be a few years before people figure out what the optimal balance is. And it's going to be different for different types of colleges. I think the blue bloods still need to go heavy on high school recruits with a few spots open to back fill holes with players from other blue bloods that are good but just have a crowded position. Not sure how often this is going to be anything other than QB.Quote:
Originally Posted by smootness
I think schools like Mississippi state are going to need to keep the most spots open for transfers. We will be a desirable landing spot for highly rated recruits that get lost in the shuffle at blue bloods and for bigtime G5 players that want to prove they can play at a higher level. But even then, you can't go too heavy because those transfers may not materialize. As more players realize transferring isn't a panacea, there might be a meaningful drop in quality transfers. I am guessing the right mix for MSU (assuming the start enforcing the 25 scholly limit again soon) will be something like 18 high school recruits and 7 transfers. Really going to be hard to take a lot of chances on JUCO players if they have an option to transfer out, but what JUCOs are available may impact that mix a little.
I would love to see a study done showing how well these kids do and especially the ones that leave multiple timesQuote:
Originally Posted by ShotgunDawg
Yeah, I'll pass on those guys that don't play (actually get on the field) at a P5 program. Give me HS guys over them unless we're desperate for depth.
You will pass on a 4 star that hadn?t gotten in the top 2 at Bama, UGA, OSU, etc but has spent a yr with elite coaches, trainers, practices with 4 yrs left that is secure over a 3star right out of HS that if he turns out to be a gem can transfer to Bama, UGA, OSU, etc? It?s all subjective. There?s definitely upside to the portal that we need to embrace.Quote:
Originally Posted by Cooterpoot
That's risky considering less than 15% of players enter the portal. You are limiting your available targets.Quote:
Originally Posted by ShotgunDawg
Also, you are completely dependent on the portal every year. If there is a year without a big portal selection you are screwed bc you have nothing but freshmen and have not developed any HS talent.
I still think the right balance is about 18-20 HS kids and 5-7 portal guys, give or take.
I feel like if you have a Junior coming from a Blue blood program that is sitting behind a likely draft pick, that is as good or better roll of the dice than most JUCOs. If they're at a position of need, I think that will normally be a no brainer for us. Even better if they decide with three years of eligibility that they're tired of sitting the bench.Quote:
Originally Posted by Cooterpoot
Yeah, 18 and 7 seems about right to me.Quote:
Originally Posted by confucius say
I?m inclined to agree with you. That?s a good mixQuote:
Originally Posted by HoopsDawg
The portal can save your ass if you get in a bind.
It can also leave you in a mess.Quote:
Originally Posted by Jack Lambert
It giveths and takeths away
Reminds me of something I was thinking about the other day along these lines, from the player's perspective - when you decide where you're going to transfer, you'd better make damn sure that's where you want to be for the rest of your undergraduate FBS career, and that you're doing it for the right reasons. If you jump and find yourself in a worse situation, you're not going to have a prayer at getting an offer while having to sit a year next to the several hundred other guys at your position who don't.
When perceiving the portal and grasping who is talking to who, take this into account. Players and fellow students communicate on social media. Players are getting together, possibly at parties or Team Viewer, and brainstorming who should go to where ever. Due to social media portal strategies are evolving in many methods.
The reason why I am bringing this to the ED members is I have seen this first hand when my players have shown this type of social media chatter to me personally. High school football players have bragged that they are going to determine future championships by getting together personally. Players upon their own motions are strategizing who they are going to influence to play together with. Parents might even find themselves and discuss matters over a beer or two.
Take notice of the two scenarios that I have introduced and notice that a coach was not mentioned. This type of team building is currently happening in major urban high school football without meaningful input from coaches and boosters. Rural geography can slow this down if there are only one or two football programs in an immediate area. Now a day even rural high school players get phone numbers and email addresses while attending college and NFL camps that they commute to. When players that have played this game in high school football get to college it is just a continuation of past behavior.
College football players from different teams do social media between themselves. If a player has a personal friend unhappy at his current team, there will be networking done to support a friend. To many a college football team is a stopover to the pros and nothing else.
When I was coaching at Southwestern JUCO in 2007 there were players from rival Grossmont JUCO in my residential area. There were six Grossmont players, from the Southeast, crammed into a two bedroom apartment nearby. Whenever I would shop at Costco, I would buy them bulk sausages or something similar and give them something to eat. Sometimes they would get on each other’s nerves and text me if they could stop by to clear their heads. Sometimes they needed to get onto the internet to send in class assignments.
One day Jimmy Pinkney, from Tallahassee, a Grossmont JUCO player texted me and asked if he could bring a new arrival at Grossmont over. Jimmy brought over L.J. Brown from Miami who just finished 4 years in the Navy. L.J. Brown had a conflict with the Grossmont defensive line coach. After Jimmy brought L.J. over, I notified my head coach of my contact. L.J. just enrolled at Grossmont JUCO but had not been formally rostered therefore the Southwestern head coach met with L.J. at his office.
In short Grossmont JUCO players rallied for L.J. Brown which caused a relationship with another coach which caused L.J. to leave Grossmont JUCO and play for its rival Southwestern. BTW L.J. Brown got a scholarship to UTEP. Strangely, both Grossmont and Southwestern football players partied together the evening of the Grossmont vs Southwestern game in 2007? I wonder how many “Portal Parties” are happening, without coaches or boosters, currently and will happen in the future. Also, I wonder how may NIL deals will occur without coaches or boosters involved. Thought I would share something with fellow Elitedoggers. BTW, wasn’t Aaron Rodgers a JUCO guy?
There are some diamonds to find but as a whole I tend to agree. Portal only to meet needs or holes. Kinda like JUCO but maybe to a lesser degree even. We still need to get the best JUCOs IMHO.Quote:
Originally Posted by Cooterpoot
It saved Ole Miss last year!Quote:
Originally Posted by Jack Lambert
And it might save them this year.Quote:
Originally Posted by bulldawg28
HS recruits can up & leave after 1 semester. It's hard to develop & coach them correctly. You can't really de-recruit them like a coaching staff needs to be able to doQuote:
Originally Posted by smootness
Agree. It will be interesting to see where things stand in a few years.Quote:
Originally Posted by BuckyIsAB****
I agree you should take HS impact guys, & maybe a few developmental guys that fully understand that they're a developmental guy that won't see the field for a few years, but you shouldn't reach. You should save as many scholarships as possible for the portal.Quote:
Originally Posted by confucius say
There are always going to be good G5 players looking to move up & we'll have a better idea which of those guys can play after they're in school for a year or two at a G5
Totally agree. Could be a guy with 3 years left to play if they redshirted at the blue blood.Quote:
Originally Posted by Johnson85
Maybe, depends on the year, but you don't reach on any of those 18 talent wiseQuote:
Originally Posted by HoopsDawg
We should continue recruiting every 94+ rated HS player in the country so that we have prior relationships with 15% that enter the portal in less than two years
Burrow and Polk have to be 2 of the biggest successes. Burrow was before it all blew up this big.Quote:
Originally Posted by ShotgunDawg
I would say the majority of them dont pan out, there is always a reason they left in the first place. Im not against it I think it actually is attempting to create more parity which I am all for. But when you have starters transferring you have a problem. The best example is To?oo at Alabama. That is ridiculous and they just got a DB from LSU
Well, when you?ve put more people in the first round than you have losses, it?s gonna happen. Saban told folks it better change or else he?s just gonna use it to shop and the talent gap will just get bigger.
I agree to some extend but, not everyone is going to be a transfer player. There will still be more guys that don't transfer than do.
What you can do now is not take those project players. Getting a guy just to get to a number for depth is not going to happen as much. Those guys will go G5 for a year or two and if they develop, they will then transfer to a P5.
18-22 high school & 5-10 transfer guys seems to be the sweet spot for a lot of coaches. I think if you go 15-20 transfer guys you are setting yourself up for disaster at least if you do it multiple years.
The players with 3 years left won't be as common in the future and you can't replace your whole roster every two years. That extra Covid year will be gone.
Agree with all.Quote:
Originally Posted by BuckyIsAB****
I wish there was a playing time component attached to the free transfer. If you played X% of your teams snaps, you have to sit a year if you transfer
I think for MSU an ideal class would be 20 high school players and 5 transfers between JUCO and the portal.
I think the portal is similar to what JUCO kind of used to be although not entirely the same. If you sign 10-15 high school kids a cycle then at some point that will catch up to a team because some of those players won't pan out in the 10-15 member class and then they're in a situation where they have to get more and more transfers or they're going to end up very young at some point. Same thing that happened to Jackie when we loaded up on JUCO's. Going JUCO heavy helped us win big from 1996-2000. But by 2002 our numbers were really messed up and it set us back for awhile.
Similarly, signing players out of the portal isn't without risk. Especially QB's. Those players are leaving for a reason. It isn't just to make more NIL money. To me, it's mostly about playing time and coaches changing than anything. Look at the majority of MSU players that entered the portal. Most were not guys that were expected to play anytime soon if at all.
Yes, but again, the vast majority won't. You have to invest in them like they will stick around and just take your losses on the ones that don't.Quote:
Originally Posted by ShotgunDawg
Justin FieldsQuote:
Originally Posted by BuckyIsAB****
Jameson Williams
Baker Mayfield
Jalen Hurts
The list goes on, and you don't even realize them all, guys like Derion Kendrick at UGA.
You can sign as many players out of the portal thst have left your program if those players aren't grad transfers. Sign 15-18 HS kids one or two JUCOs and the rest transfer portal guysQuote:
Originally Posted by Todd4State
Mayfield and Hurts and Fields were before starters were transferring to start somewhere elseQuote:
Originally Posted by smootness
Delete
We've reached on a lot of guys who played in the nfl. Calhoun, Jenkins, banks, Preston smith, Bmac, Dillon day, beckwith, tyre Phillips, Dak, etc.... bunch of two and low to mid 3 stars.Quote:
Originally Posted by ShotgunDawg
There are multiple ways to get it done. Portal is certainly one way.
it just did ... I think 247 is giving them the #1 spot on portal recruiting. They also just picked up the TE from USC (Trigg)Quote:
Originally Posted by Catfish
That is not true. You can sign up to a certain point but it is capped. I think you get up to 32. Turning your roster completely over every two years would be impossible. 3 year portal guys will not be common.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dawgfan77
I think that 32 is only approved for a temporary basis. I think they bumped it because of a combination of blue bloods were going to be left short handed as a result of a lot of bench warmers transferring out and also realizing a lot of sholarships were going to be left unused (or given to walkons) while there were simultaneously a lot of transfers without scholarships, and they didn't want the PR headache.Quote:
Originally Posted by Hot Rock
I think (hope) they are going to ratchet that down over time. Or they may have separate slots for high school and transfer players so they don't have a lot fewer high school students getting scholarship offers.
We are somewhere in the middle hereQuote:
Originally Posted by Hot Rock
https://www.si.com/college/2021/08/2...ransfer-portal
Appreciate that link. Ill admit I didn't ace differential equations...... however, Ive been doing the math. Aren't teams building themselves up for a one year run and creating a hole in the roster that will sink them for seasons. I mean if your signing class is 20-30% portal, 1 year guys. Don't you have to sign 20-30% of 1 year guys forever or until finally you sign 25 HS guys and have a void in the upper classes.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dawgfan77