Rumor is, from people close to Bednar, that he is getting the nod for Friday night. Just passing along a rumor. Have no idea if it?s true or not.
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Rumor is, from people close to Bednar, that he is getting the nod for Friday night. Just passing along a rumor. Have no idea if it?s true or not.
That's overthinking it if true and not a good move.Quote:
Originally Posted by preachermatt83
Makes sense against a right handed heavy lineup of samford (I heard they were right handed heavy, haven't looked myself). I like it.
I listened to Lemonis on head to head yesterday and when asked about a starting pitcher, he emphasized that they would be looking at matchups before deciding. I don’t think Bednar getting the start is anything other than a match up deal.
Honestly it shouldn’t matter who we pitch. If Mac and Bednar pitch the way we have seen, we will start 2-0. Then have Harding/Fristoe/Smith
With them being right handed heavy, I don’t blame him one bit for starting Bednar..
Makes sense considering the amount of righties in the lineup, no matter who starts we need them to go deep and not put our bullpen behind the 8 ball early
Agreed. Bednar sat. With that said, I do that before throwing anyone not named McLeod or bednar. But it also sets up the super regional rotation going forward should we advance.Quote:
Originally Posted by HoopsDawg
IMO Bednar should pitch Saturday. But my opinion don't count for much lol
If it?s a righty heavy lineup you throw bednar. It?s not much if any difference between him and Mac right now.
Samford against MacLeod would bat 9 RHs.
VCU against MacLeod would bat 3-4 lefties.
Given Lemonis and his propensity for statistical guidance over gut and what has been done before, this decision completely fits what him and staff look at to make decisions.
I trust him and see the logic of this decision. If you can't at least see the logic, then you don't understand baseball. There's a lot of folks that would do something different because they don't get paid a million dollars with their job riding on the line to make decisions like this one.
They are heavy RH. Possibly all of the lineup. I think Steve Robertson said 8 RH and a switch hitter.
Bednar has been better than MacLeoud. This may lead to better match ups throughout the postseason. Plus Bednar get go deeper into games.
I'm OK with this rumor.
I still think Mac has to be the guy. If you start WB hopefully we can get up 10-0 early and pull him in case he's needed Monday.
Honestly, is there really much of a difference in VCU, Campbell, or Samford? They are all mid-major conference champions with a decent RPI in the 31-54 range. Playing matchups seems fine since none of the 3 are clearly better or worse than the rest.
Throwing your Ace against a 4 seed would be in a word- stupid. Especially a team whose Ace has a 5.00 ERA
Yup. I like it. Mainly because if we can’t win the regional with either/or then I think we were toast anyway. And as stated, this sets us up for bednar to start game 1 of supers. Which is what I think we’d all want.Quote:
Originally Posted by Todd4State
I'd save Bednar for game 2 of the regionalQuote:
Originally Posted by preachermatt83
Facts!Quote:
Originally Posted by Quaoarsking
Usually, yes, but usually 4 seeds are significantly worse than the 2 and the 3. Ours isn't. We appear to have a very strong 4 and pretty weak 2 and 3.Quote:
Originally Posted by Coach34
Disagree. VCU is very hot and playing well. Samford's pitching is the weakest of the 3. Not to mention VCU has some P5 wins- Samford does not. VCU hasnt lost since April 13thQuote:
Originally Posted by Quaoarsking
If this were Southern we are having an entirely different conversation.Quote:
Originally Posted by Quaoarsking
There are teams that received at large bids that have a higher RPI than Samford. They are no slouch. We got a strong 4 seed that has an RPI of 54.
There is a difference. Now I'm not saying take Sanford lightly. But Bednar on sat is the best route. If Macleod didn't have a change up maybe so.Quote:
Originally Posted by Quaoarsking
Personally I would start bednar game 2. That being said this is where a coach knowing his players comes into play. As I've said before in a tournament format at some point you have to gamble with your pitching and have the balls to do it. Some gamble early on and some wait. It can work either way and a coach knowing his players and the matchups is crucial in the decision making. If it works we got our rotation set for supers.
I understand the matchups and I see no problem with Lemonis and Foxhall decision. First off IF we don't hit better than what we did the last two games, it ain't gonna matter. Second of all, no way any of the three teams in our Regional are top Sec caliber teams. Now in saying this anything can happen if an opposing pitcher has his best day. It's pretty much a must to win the first game as well as the second I think. Actually I hope Bednar goes this distance, it really saves the pen then.Quote:
Originally Posted by Commercecomet24
You bring up the elephant in the room, IMO. Honestly, if our bats wake up, it won't really matter who we pitch...and that would certainly help with all of our stress levels, lol.Quote:
Originally Posted by basedog
Samford 1-9 will be RH hitters if we throw MacLeod, so throwing a RHP would be smart.
However, Bednar does not need to be that RHP. If you're hell bent on throwing a righty, Brandon Smith, Cade Smith, or Stone Simmons would be better moves so you don't waste your best pitcher on the 4 seed.
If Samford were the type of 4 seed that many of them are, I would agree. Samford has an RPI in the 50s. So if you need to win one game against a team like that, you look at teams like Pitt, Maryland, UC Santa Barbara as comparables. You throwing Cade Smith against that?Quote:
Originally Posted by KOdawg1
The answer is hell no. Bednar is the right choice because of matchup. If you screw up and lose, that means it's possible Bednar or MacLeod don't pitch a game. That can't happen.
Samford had an RPI of 43 when they beat us in Tallahassee. So only 11 spots higher than now. Can't play around with them because if we lose this game, we have to win 4 more to get out of our regional. Do you feel comfortable with this team having to win 4 in a row to make it out of our regional? I don't.
The smart play is Bednar, MacLeod, Fristoe/Harding, Fristoe/Harding. Brandon Smith goes if there's a game 5.
It's a gamble either way; I honestly see both sides.Quote:
Originally Posted by MetEdDawg
But with as unpredictable as Mac can be (especially at home in a pressure situation) I'd like Bednar to go game 2. But like what's already been stated, it won't matter if we can't hit.
We hit way better in the tourney than we pitched. That's saying a lot. But hammer at least had some hard outs. Our pitchers got shelled for the most part. But make no mistake I have faith that our pitchers will reboundQuote:
Originally Posted by BeardoMSU
Hmmm, yes pitching was bad but scoring only 3 runs in less than 18 innings is just as bad. We need to hit and score early to gain confidence. Also Samford didn’t see Bednar which I think is good for us. If the bottom of of our order doesn’t produce some it could be a bad weekend. Just my take. Too much talk about how easy our region draw is, heck we can’t or shouldn’t over look any team from now till the endQuote:
Originally Posted by Homedawg
Won't argue we need to score more than 3 runs. Agree. But we did hit 5 hard hit balls in our first 6 abs against fla. won't go any further. Our pitching - again- for the Most part, was beyond awful. And the rest of the post I agree with! Same pageQuote:
Originally Posted by basedog
The winning streak thing is overblown to me. A comparable Central Michigan team came here on a long winning streak two years ago and went 1-2 with two blowout losses.Quote:
Originally Posted by Coach34
Samford plays in the 9th ranked RPI conference, Campbell's conference is 20th and VCU's is 21st. And Samford did go 20-10 in their league. I realize they've struggled against the SEC this year, I still don't think they are drastically different in quality from VCU and Campbell. Will not be shocked at all if Sunday night we are looking at a MSU/Samford Regional championship.
Some of you geniuses have short term memory loss. The last few weeks this team has been a complete Charlie Foxtrot. MetEdDawg said it best. No way this team is capable of winning 4 in a row. So you play the matchup game in a manner that gives you the best advantage in this first game. Then you continue in that same MO until you advance. Only way to approach it with this team, which is VERY limited. I have some sobering news for some of you and your delusional ideas. We are not that great. So it is going to take some real study to put us in an advantage in this tournament. That is what Lemonis is paid for.
Bednar game one would be as stupid a move as we could make. But that's what the analytics say because of the right handlers. Nevermind those guys couldn't hit Harding. It would be foolish unless you severely limit pitches and use him twice, which isn't happening.
I can’t imagine if we lost the first game what the meltdown would be for players, coaches and fans! First game is always a must win. And yes we aren’t built for the long haul in regional play.Quote:
Originally Posted by State82
Samford- SP's ERA is 5+ in weaker leagues. Been completely exposed vs P5 opponents
VCU- hasnt lost in 9 weeks. Has multiple wins vs 'P5 teams. Including Virginia who is not bad.
One of these is not like the other.
Lemon loves the analytics and I get that. They are important in baseball. But gut and knowing your team is important also. Curious to see what happens this weekend
If you pitched Mac and lost Game 1 would their be a meltdown about the decision Lemon made? I dont see anybody being mad at Lemon over that. Would be much more on the players than LemonQuote:
Originally Posted by basedog
They've both been very inconsistent all year, especially Macleod.....
Yes, they have. So there really is no difference in the big picture.Quote:
Originally Posted by Saltydog
Yes to losing game one regardless who pitches. Actually I don’t care who starts first game, but it’s a must win IMO.Quote:
Originally Posted by Coach34